@PJ11819211 You can argue about the nature of predicting the probability of non-repeating events, but it doesnโt change the fact that the criticism people have are all based on a misunderstanding of probabilities
The same thing happens with prediction markets, which are well calibrated
@MLJK87 See you're one of the people i'm talking about
Of course when someone says something has a 20% chance of happening and it happens you think they're wrong, because you didn't notice the 4 other times they made the same prediction and it didn't happen
Thereโs a lot of seemingly simple concepts that are hard to grasp for someone with an average IQ (inflation comes to mind), but Probability is something Iโd wager only 5% of people *truly* understand
The best example of that is how people react to electoral forecasts
@PJ11819211 You can argue about the nature of predicting the probability of non-repeating events, but it doesnโt change the fact that the criticism people have are all based on a misunderstanding of probabilities
The same thing happens with prediction markets, which are well calibrated
@atlanticesque2 I simply don't think someone who believes in individualism and inherent human freedoms regardless of birth conditions would fight so hard to keep the global apartheid
People calling this a nothingburger didnโt read past the headline
Yeah everyone knew he was gay, but the details are really fucked up, he was filming an underage escort
Lindsey Graham was routinely hiring male sex workers while handling extremely sensitive national security material.
Including a minor, whose story is detailed here for the first time.
Meanwhile, his sister Darline runs on his name while campaigning on anti-LGBT rhetoric.