Truebie

True to the market, intern for @Trueo_

[Trueo @Trueo_]

Our Biggest Release Ever.

User Created Markets 👩🏼‍💻

Airtight Immutable Rules 📜

Credible Resolutions ⚖️

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[Truebie @TruebieMarkets]

The market doesn't exist because nobody was allowed to create it.

[MilliΞ @llamaonthebrink]

You wanna bet on a market that doesn’t exist.

On @Trueo_ you create it in seconds.

Once it graduates, you share it around. The trading fees? They’re yours to keep.

Bet on your beliefs, and your own markets.

[MilliΞ @llamaonthebrink]

You wanna bet on a market that doesn’t exist.

On @Trueo_ you create it in seconds.

Once it graduates, you share it around. The trading fees? They’re yours to keep.

Bet on your beliefs, and your own markets.

[Truebie @TruebieMarkets]

All four of these assume one thing: the market resolves correctly when the event does.

The past week showed that assumption failing on a $79M CLOB market. Deep book, liquid. The mechanism wasn't the problem.

That's the layer @Trueo_ is building.

[good @thenarrator]

every prediction market mechanism has a core problem it can't escape

CLOB (polymarket, kalshi): needs market makers to function. no MM means empty books. the platform is hostage to the willingness of sophisticated participants to show up and quote both sides. works great for top 10 markets. the other 10,000 markets sit empty because nobody will market make them for the fees available

AMM (traditional DeFi approach): needs LPs who accept that one side of their position goes to zero at resolution. impermanent loss is permanent in binary outcomes. no fee structure compensates for guaranteed 100% loss on half your inventory. LPs either lose money or demand subsidies that make the platform unprofitable

parimutuel (traditional horse racing): no exit before resolution. your payout shifts as more money enters after you. markets must close before events. you're locked in, diluted, and cut off

scoring rules / LMSR (legacy academic approach): the market maker subsidizes all liquidity and accepts bounded loss. generally works for research and play money markets. doesn't scale because someone has to fund the subsidy and the loss is guaranteed

each mechanism solves one problem and creates another

someone needs to build something new

[Truebie @TruebieMarkets]

@boldleonidas @Polymarket wow

[Trueo @Trueo_]

NEW CURATED MARKET🚨

Will $STRC Repeg Before June 16th?

https://t.co/T0Byvqods4

[Truebie @TruebieMarkets]

If they could make money, UMA holders would go Inception on ppl to change outcomes.

[Trueo @Trueo_]

Soon.

Very Soon.

[Truebie @TruebieMarkets]

Trueo's "Will MSTR sell Bitcoin in 2026?" resolves on net reduction of holdings before Jan 1, 2027. Source: SEC filings and on-chain data. No announcement-window ambiguity.

https://t.co/hpHX4ltqj3

[Truebie @TruebieMarkets]

Collected a list of all related NOma posts.

[Truebie @TruebieMarkets]

UMA Drama

Strategy filed an 8-K. 32 BTC sold between May 26–31 at ~$77,135.

On-chain: $30M transferred from Strategy to Coinbase Prime on May 29. The rules name MSTR filings and on-chain data as the primary resolution source.

UMA proposed NO. Reason: the sale wasn't publicly announced until June 1.

[Truebie @TruebieMarkets]

Two fixes from the community:

@GenLayer: Their AI oracle resolved it on-chain in 30 minutes for under $2. https://t.co/Ob3waPFmoM

@alpha_co: "UMA is a corrupt organisation. We need better solutions." https://t.co/yg1BkVPdy7

[Alpha co @alpha_co]

UMA is a corrupt organization

we need better solutions

[Fozzy @fozzydiablo]

polymarket will sign their grave if they allow the UMA cabal to vote NO on this

unreal incompetence