The NFL Model

Sharing insights from a home-grown NFL predictive model to identify the best bets for NFL sides and Totals and make you a better football bettor.

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

Model bets are locked in on Football Forte - best bet of the week is looking like Panthers +4. You can check out the rest on the FootballForte Substack: https://t.co/SM4PMVwGRw

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

The model has 10 more bets this week coming off a red hot week 11. Our best bets include one massive favorite covering a huge spread and an unbelievably low under bet that we love - check out the full slate write up on the FootballForte Substack: https://t.co/WZBTRLWi6i

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

If you were planning to back Miami off their big win, take this as a word of caution to reconsider them as 2.5 point favorites - my numbers make this game only the slightest edge towards the "home" team in Madrid at -.5

Tracking Was+2.5 as a model "Bet" - but not with my $ on it

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

It's our last morning football game and the NFL model likes Washington to cover 2.5.

I would have considered taking this at +3, but with the way Washington's defense is playing there's no way I could recommend betting on this team catching less than a FG.

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

Check out our full slate write-up on Football Forte's substack: https://t.co/r375A0dCtQ

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

Week 10 Bets:
Giants/Bears over 46.5 (pending weather report)
Vikings +4
Browns/Jets over 37.5
Pats/Bucs under 48.5
49ers +6
Lions team total under 28.5
Chargers -2.5

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

Lean:
Colts -6.5 (bet at -6)
Falcons/Colts under 48.5
Giants +4.5
Dolphins +8.5
Bills/Dolphins over 50
Ravens/Vikings under 49
Jets +2
Saints/Panthers over 38
Texans ML
Jags/Texans over 37.5
Seahawks -6.5
Commanders +8
Commanders/Lions under 49
Packers -1

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

We're hitting our first week 10 bet for TNF and its a total: by far our stronger type of bet this season. Give us the over at 42.5 in Raiders Broncos. Surtain is still out and this Denver team has been fast paced all year. With Bowers healthy the Raiders can hopefully keep pace.

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

Week 9 Sunday Bets:
Chi/Cin under 51.5
Min+9.5
Atl+5.5
Atl/NE under 45.5
SF-2.5
SF/NYG under 47.5
Jax-1.5
Buf+2

Lean:
Min/Det under 47.5
Car +13
Car/GB over 43.5
LAC/Ten over 44
Ind-3
Ind/Pit under 51.5
Den/Hou over 41
LAR -14
NO/LAR over 44
KC/Buf over 52.5

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

With Lamar in this game is trending towards +8 or +8.5. Shop around for the best lineman on this one because the 8 does matter.

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

TNF picks: Bet Dolphins+7.5 and under 51 hosting Baltimore tonight.

We certainly don't believe in two-eyed Tua, but this is too many points for the home team facing Lamar off the hamstring injury with a defense playing better than you think.

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

Tough week so far, but with Evans and Egbuka in we're still locking in this under way up at 54.5 and are adding a bet:

Bucs +6.5

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

Little late to the party today with some international travel and delays - today's picks we're tracking:
Saints +4
Chiefs -12
Vikings +2
Eagles/Vikings under 44
Packers/Cards Under 44.5
Bucs/Lions under 52.5

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

Bet Bengals +5.5 and under 45 hosting Pittsburg.

We know their defense is terrible and they're likely down their best pass rusher with Hendrickson trending towards out, but we still don't respect this Steelers offense and will keep fading them until the model (or market) adjusts

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

Week 6 was an even split at 7-7 bringing the season long record to a respectable 31-23 (+5.2 units).

We're starting early this week with TNF and a bet we kind of hate on the point spread and another total...

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

Here's the weekly summary before games kickoff:

Bet:
Colts -8.5
Browns +6.5
49ers +3.5
Packers -14
Saints +3.5
Falcons +4
Bears +5
Cards/Colts under 46
49ers/Bucs under 46.5
Cowboys/Panthers over 46.5
Seahawks/Jags Under 47.5
BAL/ LAR over 43.5
DET/KC Under 52
CHI/WAS under 50

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

As always you can find the full picks write-up on the FootballForte substack: https://t.co/SKZxN0B75p

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

We'll be back with a full slate of picks this Friday to keep the winning season going before another week off for some travel in week 7.

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

After a red hot week 4 Sunday, I took the weekend off to go up North for some fall activities. Still got my bets in for FootballForte to write up and landed at 4-5 there on Sunday with nothing left on our card for MNF: https://t.co/fIMlBWrQzG

FF record: 25-19
TTM record: 25-16

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

Bet Jets +2.5:
This is an awesome teaser leg and with Fields back, we expect this team to be able to move the ball agaisnt a bad Miami defense.

Bet Bengals/Broncos Under 44.5:
We also lean to Denver to win and cover agaisnt Browning's Bengals so peek at the Cincy team total too

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

This week's Sunday Model bets:
Steelers +2.5
Saints +14.5
Browns +10
Giants +6.5
Chiefs +3
Cowboys +7
NO/BUF over 48
CLE/DET under 44.5
IND/LAR under 49.5 💥
JAX/SF under 47
KC/BAL over 47

...and 2 more bets planned for Monday Night football

[The NFL Model @TrustTheModelFB]

A 9-1 Sunday for bets is trending towards 10-1 tonight if the Cowboys don't completely fall apart here. The Model was overdue for a good bounce and this week brings the season total to 23-15 (likely 24-15) and up more than 8 units on the season. Looking ahead to the 2 MNF games: