Tsotso

Software Developer, #bitcoin only

[Tsotso @tsotso]

@I_keepchanging Great thread!

[Parker @TheOtherParker_]

What a day for $STRC. When it rains it pours.

When panic is setting in, it helps to revisit the fundamentals of why you made the investment in the first place.

The main thing to focus on is that STRC is designed as a "bend, not break" instrument. Or, better yet, a "Stretch, not snap" instrument - yes, cringe.

First, let's get some facts out there:
1. Strategy's total annual cash outlays are about $1.7B for dividends and coupons. Most of that is for STRC dividends.

2. Strategy currently has $1.4B in cash, and raised $300M last week on the $MSTR ATM. They raised $100M each of the prior two weeks as well. The stock is still trading at a small premium to mNAV as of today. They have likely raised a few hundred million additional this week, maybe even $300M .

3. Strategy's converts have put dates mostly in mid 2028; however, a third of the converts are still trading at a premium to par, meaning they would be unlikely to be put.

4. Strategy has a number of mechanisms at their disposal to help bring the price of STRC back to par.

Ok, now for some additional thoughts:
1. The $1.7B that Strategy "owes" each year amounts to $33M/wk. The MSTR common traded $11B last week. $IBIT traded $6B last week. $BTC traded about $3B on Coinbase alone, while globally, traded multiples of that. If they need to raise $33M/wk, they can, basically forever. Even if they were just selling BTC and turned off the MSTR ATM, they'd be selling 545 BTC/wk at current BTC prices. They could do a mixture of MSTR ATM and BTC sales to spread it out. To put 545 BTC into perspective, so far in 2026, Strategy has acquired 174,863 BTC. So, if they simply sold what they acquired this year on a weekly basis, they could fund dividends and coupons for 74 months beyond the 10 months they already have - total of 84 months, or 7 years. What if BTC drops to $30k you say? They can fund things for 47 months, including existing cash, so 4 years. To be VERY CLEAR, this is only selling the BTC they bought this year, it leaves the other 672,500 BTC acquired prior to 2026 in tact. If you throw that all into the mix, they can fund cash needs for 31 and 16 years at $60k and $30k BTC respectively. If BTC is at $30k in 16 years, I think it is dead.

TL;DR - cash outlays aren't a problem. No "death spiral" is triggered from selling a few hundred BTC/wk.

2. The converts seem really scary, with put dates coming up in 2 years roughly. However, there are a few things to consider. First, with a volatile stock like MSTR, they can very likely refinance the converts with another convert that has a later put date, later maturity and lower strike price on the conversion price. This is due to the very high value of the imbedded option in the convert. There's some dilution there for the common holders, but not crazy, since it's somewhat offset by the elimination of the old converts. Based on today's prices and a 30% conversion premium, that would be about 10% in net additional shares issuable upon conversion of the new convert. If the common float doubles between now and that future conversion (very likely), that's only a 5% dilution. Not amazing, but also not horrible for the MSTR common holders. That 5-10% dilution would push back the conversion date by many years. Additionally, other companies have successfully swapped converts for preferreds in the past, e.g. Strive, so there's no reason that Strategy couldn't come to an arrangement there with a number of the convert investors.

TL;DR - the converts are not a huge problem and wouldn't require the company to come up with $6.7B in cash right on the spot.

3. Strategy has no margin debt. So, BTC could actually fall to $1 tomorrow and they would not be "liquidated". There is no liquidation price in the short-term. Period.

4. So, what is the "death" scenario for Strategy? Turns out, there's no killshot, just a slow bleed. Sure, if BTC falls to $20k and stays there for 6-7 years, then Strategy has a problem. But only at that point do they have a problem. If you think this is a realistic scenario, you should leave bitcoin immediately and short every company in crypto. Very few crypto businesses would survive that.

So, putting it all together, Strategy is specifically designed as an anti-fragile fortress for bitcoin accumulation. Sure, leverage creates some risk, but it is also the ONLY reason they are able to accumulate BTC. If they had zero leverage, then IBIT would be the better investment. Any big hedge funds that want to "liquidate" them would need to keep the price of BTC generationally low for over half a decade.

The biggest advantage that Strategy has is time. They can wait and be deliberate. To flip a common phrase on its head, Strategy can stay solvent MUCH longer than the market can stay irrational.

Now, regarding STRC specifically, this is Strategy's flagship product. If they stop paying the dividends on it, they lose S3 eligibility for a year. That's a HORRIBLE outcome, so they would only stop paying the dividend in the most dire of circumstances. In fact, very few preferred stock issues ever stop paying dividends, and most that do, do it because of bankruptcy.

They very much want to see STRC trading back at par, because it is their primary cash-raising mechanism for accumulating more BTC.

That does NOT mean they are going to panic, raise the dividend to 15%, and sell a bunch of BTC to buyback all the STRC. They have plenty of time, and as long as you don't sell, you have time too. You continue to collect the dividend that you signed up for, and likely an increased one as they increase the dividend over time. You still get $11.5 per year per share of STRC, regardless of the market price.

STRC can certainly go lower, but as long as you're not margined against it, it shouldn't really matter. It's very clear that Strategy has both the capacity and the desire to continue paying the dividends and ultimately support getting the price back to par. Maybe it takes a few weeks or maybe it takes a few months. STRC is a low time preference instrument issued by a low time preference company.

The important thing is, there's no "breaking point" anytime soon. BTC basically must completely fail before there's a "breaking point". There is certainly a "panic point" though for investors, and with STRC down almost 15% so far this week, nearly 3x worse than BTC, it's very clear we are at "panic point".

Ultimately, STRC was designed to remove the possibility of "breaking points". The goal is to "bend, not break".

"Stretch, not snap."

[Tsotso @tsotso]

@firefish_io @BTCPrague 25.06.2026 14:00

[Tsotso @tsotso]

@bit2c רק לא לאבד מפתחות בסדר? 😂

[Tsotso @tsotso]

@firefish_io "No capital gains tax"
Not exactly, you substract your administration fees from the collateral which triggers a capital gains event. Better would be to substract the fee from the borrowed funds.

[Bit Paine ⚡️ @BitPaine]

We need more strong pro-Western leaders like Netanyahu and fewer like Zohran Mamdani and his radical Islamist, genocide-promoting wife.

[Bit Paine ⚡️ @BitPaine]

The narrative that Israel committed genocide in Gaza is so funny to me. If you repeat this nonsense I just dismiss your opinion and assume your iq is sub-100.

What do think America would do if Mexican cartels attacked Coachella and raped a bunch of fourteen year olds? Oh and also they were the acting government of Mexico.

Mexico would be flattened and annexed. And even leftist progressives would support it at 90/10 margins.

Israel was attacked. Hamas committed a war crime. They fucked around and found out. Justice was served.

If you can’t see that you’re just a plain old fuckin retard.

[Tsotso @tsotso]

@1962buzi מלך מרוקו מאמין כי כבוד לקהילה היהודית מביא עמו את ברכת אלוקי היהודים – מקור הברכה לממלכה כולה

[Cowboy Tcherno Bill @RudiGeerts]

2/n Hessy Taft (nee Levinson) was born in Berlin in 1934 to Jewish parents Jacob and Polin Levinson who were originally from Latvia. After studying music the two married in 1928 and later immigrated to Germany.
In 1935, Hessy's mother and aunt took six-month-old Hessy to be

[REPUBLIC OF SOMALILAND @RepOfSomaliland]

🇮🇱🚨URGENT Israel Tech Professionals : Somaliland needs your expertise.
In September 2025, @googlemaps unilaterally redrew Somaliland’s borders, effectively "shrinking" our nation by excluding the eastern Sool, Sanaag, regions. This update validates a fake "Northeast State" created by Somalia just a few months ago on paper to virtually seize land they do not control.

Historically, Somaliland claims the borders of the former British Protectorate (1884–1960). While Google now uses dotted lines to cut off these regions, Somaliland forces actually hold the ground and our citzens live there. We are baffled why Google Maps is the only provider validating this phantom state while Microsoft Bing Maps & OpenStreetMap respect the legal, historical borders.

We see Israeli media inadvertently using this false, shrunken map.
Israel is a tech superpower—surely you have a solution to change it back?
Your new friends in Somaliland would deeply appreciate some Tech Diplomacy.

Please help us petition Google to restore our digital sovereignty and the correct 1960 borders. @HilzFuld

[MK Orit Farkash Hacohen אורית פרקש הכהן @FarkashOrit]

@AvigdorLiberman @NirHirshman נכון !

[אביגדור ליברמן @AvigdorLiberman]

הקריפטו נחת על כדור הארץ ולא מתכוון להתאדות ממנו.

פיתוחים רבים בתחום הם תוצרת כחול לבן, אבל אנחנו לא נהנים מהפירות של זה. מדובר באובדן הכנסות משמעותי למדינת ישראל. זה יביא תנופת פיתוח טכנולוגי ויצור מקומות עבודה חדשים ובשכר גבוה.

הסדרת שוק הקריפטו היא חובה במדינת ישראל.

[Geert Wilders @geertwilderspvv]

I am a Dutch Member of Parliament for almost 10.000 days now. The longest active MP in the Dutch Parliament.

I founded my party (Party for Freedom) almost 20 years ago with only one aim: to fight for freedom - and against the strongest force of unfreedom: Islam.

I was banned an denied entry in the UK and declared persona non grata by Indonesia. Iran, Jordan, Austria and Saudi Arabië threatened to persecute me and my own country actually did. The Secretary General of the UN denounced me for making a short movie about the Quran (Fitna) as did the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).

I lived in a prison cell with my wife - not as prisoners but in order to stay alive - and still live in a government safe house for twenty years now.

I received until recently several fatwas to kill me from Pakistani mullahs and was put on the death lists of IS, Taliban and Al Qaida already years ago.

At the same time I always fought and fight against antisemitism and defend and wholeheartedly support Israel as the Jewish homeland and only true democracy in a region of hostility, darkness and barbarity. Am Yisrael Chai!

So, many Muslims - but certainly not all - hate my guts and so does the biased leftish-liberal establishment and media.

Why? Because I warn the world against the existential threat of Islamization and speak the truth about the so called prophet Muhammad. Only because I love freedom and despise totalitarianism and jihad and all the sources that support that or lie about it.

My promise for 2026 and many years after is that I will never stop, never, and will passionately keep fighting for freedom and speak out against Islam whatever the consequences.

We have to get stronger and tougher because our freedom slowly but surely evaporates and the islamization of our nations unfortunately is worsening by the day.

So I will keep leading this course for freedom for many years to come in the Dutch parliament and keep traveling around the world to get the message out. Our future is more at stake than ever. In January I will be speaking in the US.

Freedom is worth fighting for.

We love life, radical Muslims cherish death.

Join us, please, wherever and whenever you can! Next generations depend on our succes. Losing is no option.

Together we will win! ❤️

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

I STAND WITH MICHAEL J. SAYLOR

[Tsotso @tsotso]

@aaronjmate Imagine thinking you can start a war and then play the victim

[Tsotso @tsotso]

@antonioguterres You must have a large enough house to host a few families. Show us how it's done 😆🤣

[Bitcoin Archive @BitcoinArchive]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says he wants to make America "number 1 in crypto"

“China is getting into it very big”

[Nicholas Lissack @NicholasLissack]

The thug shouting “put the Zios in the ground” has been identified as Samuel Williams, a PPE student at Balliol College, Oxford.

He openly incited anti-Semitic violence against Jews. It’s vile and has no place in a civilised society.

Expel him. Arrest him. No excuses.

[David Collier @mishtal]

Before Oct 7, many thought Israel had lost its deterrence. They think Hamas took it as a green light.

Oct 2025: Hezbollah crushed, Hamas begged for a deal, Gaza in ruins, Iran humiliated. Nasrallah, Sinwar, Haniyeh - all gone.

Deterrent restored.
You don’t mess with Israel.

[Eric Trump @EricTrump]

Retweet if you believe @realDonaldTrump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.