TuOki^

Stock market junkie.

Disclaimer:
Tweets reflect my personal views only.

[TuOki^ @Tu0ki]

I am proud #nocoiner https://t.co/kUfkDl122E

[ResearchPulse @ResearchPulse1]

Wegovy pill just approved in UK….!

$LLY $NVO $VKTX

https://t.co/AghSVEQTLX

[FollowTheFilings @fdzmurillo]

Where we actually are with Novo and Lilly. Four data points converging this weekend that the panic-selling crowd is not processing:

1. Danske Bank (Denmark's largest lender) raised Denmark GDP 2026 forecast to 3.0% from 2.7% on March 4, citing manufacturing pharma strength led by Novo. Their chief economist Las Olsen publicly stated Denmark can be viewed as an average European economy with Novo sitting on top as growth multiplier. The national central bank is signaling Novo contribution is exceeding expectations materially.

2. Wegovy HD 7.2mg (launched USA March 2026) delivers the fastest initial weight loss velocity of any GLP-1 in the category, with 20.7% mean weight loss at 72 weeks, 31% of patients reaching at least 25% weight loss, 3.3% discontinuation, and no muscle wasting from a glucagon agonism component. When every modern GLP-1 ends around 20-22% at endpoint, the metric that matters for commercial retention is initial velocity. Patients who see fast visible results stay on therapy. Patients who don't, abandon.

3. Wegovy pill (oral semaglutide 25mg) reached 3 million US prescriptions in 22 weeks since January 5 launch. Officially the strongest-ever GLP-1 volume launch in the US per Novo's own characterization. More than 80% of these prescriptions are for patients new to GLP-1 therapy, which means the pill is expanding the total obesity treatment market rather than cannibalizing the injectable franchise. Net new patients entering the category with semaglutide as their introduction.

4. Foundayo (orforglipron, Lilly) FAERS data through June 7: 344 total adverse event cases reported in 9 weeks of commercial launch, with 11 classified as serious by FDA criteria (death, life-threatening, hospitalization, persistent disability). These 11 are clinically severe cases meeting strict regulatory thresholds. The ratio of 11 serious cases on a small denominator (12-15K prescriptions per week per IQVIA) is signal, not noise. The May 4 hepatic failure case was expedited priority FDA review.

Meanwhile retatrutide is not in any market. Phase 3 ongoing. TRIUMPH-Outcomes completes ~2030. Earliest commercial launch 2028-2029 against generic semaglutide. The gym influencer demographic that was supposed to be Lilly's warm-up market is publicly redirecting to tirzepatide this weekend, citing 31-38% lean mass loss versus tirzepatide's 25%.

The Lilly 40x earnings premium versus Novo 9x earnings cannot persist as the commercial data validates the structural read. $NVO $LLY

[Glenn Cameron @GlennOnrampBTC]

Heres another gem the fanboys keeping throwing at me:

"Strategy doesnt need to sell its Bitcoin. They can just suspend off the dividend."

Okay. Let's actually walk through what that means.

Not for them. For you, the person holding the thing.

Quick plain English first.

STRC is a "preferred share." Think of it as a posh IOU that pays a monthly income, 11.5% right now.

"Suspend the dividend" just means the company stops paying you. And here's the first gut punch, straight out of their own legal docs: the board can stop paying for any reason it likes.

No excuse needed. It's not a default. Nobody broke any rules. They just stop.

"But hang on," people say, "STRC is cumulative. So even if they skip it, they still owe me. It builds up. I get it later."

True. The skipped money doesnt vanish. It stacks up, even grows on paper. Sounds safe enough.

Here's the catch nobody mentions. There is no due date. None. Nothing on earth forces them to ever actually pay that pile down. No maturity. No one can drag it forward. No court can demand it. It's an IOU with no deadline that you have zero power to enforce.

It's like a credit card you can keep spending on and never pay back.

So picture it: they suspend, the number you're owed climbs on a screen, months pass, years even, and you wait for cash that has no obligation to ever show up.

And they can shrink it. The fine print lets them grind the rate down over time. Drop the payout low enough, pay you that titchy amount, and the so called "protections" never even switch on.

Their own prospectus admits the safeguards "could be inadequate." Their words.

Now the part that should worry anyone further down the ladder.

There are weaker shares sitting below STRC.

STRK and STRD. Freeze STRC and those two freeze with it, automatically. STRK at least keeps its IOU. But STRD is "non-cumulative." Every payment it misses is gone.

Forever. No pile up, no catch up, no IOU. And STRD waves around one of the fattest yields in the whole range. Sold on that big number. A suspension quietly sets fire to it.

"But surely there are protections!"?

What protections?

The big one everyone points to stops the company paying its ordinary shareholders, or buying back ordinary stock, while you sit unpaid. Sounds like a proper handcuff.

Except they dont pay ordinary shareholders a dividend. Never have.

And they dont buy back stock, the whole game is selling stock to buy Bitcoin, not buying it back. So it handcuffs them from doing two things they were never going to do. Does nothing for you. Not a penny in your pocket.

And no, you cant vote your way out. The preferred barely gets a vote, and not on anything that matters.

Meanwhile one bloke, Saylor, swings about 38% of the company's votes off a 6% slice of actual ownership (super voting rights), through special shares he owns 99.9% of.

Even the ordinary owners cant easily overrule him. You? You're not even in the room.

So to the crowd saying "relax, they'll just suspend the dividend, no biggie," hear what they actually said.

The plan, when things get rough, is to switch off your income. Not theirs. Yours. And the further down you sit, the worse it is. The layer below you loses its income for good.

"They can just suspend the dividend" was never a safety net.

It IS the risk.

Let's say the quiet part out loud:

your "high yield savings account" can be switched off at will, owed to you forever on a screen, with no deadline, no way to force it, and no vote that counts.

Sleep tight.

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Plan B it is. Fuck this crypto shit

[John Huber @JohnHuber72]

There are roughly as many stocks up today as there are down in the S&P 500, not to mention small caps. When capital gets extremely concentrated into one area, we sometimes get a tale of two cities market. Happened briefly during Covid, but happened in a major way in late 90’s. Lots of stocks ended up actually rising when the market fell 50% from 2000-2002. I think same thing is happening in the current market.

[ResearchPulse @ResearchPulse1]

Could UK be only few days away from approval of wegovy pill?

According this article sources close to $NVO indicate it could be eminently.

If so that would be a big surprise for the market since most has pointed towards late 2026 arrival

I still don’t see NVO launching wegovy pill in UK at prices below wegovy pen prices in UK.

Quite the opposite since wegovy pen prices in UK is much lower than any other country in Europe.

$LLY $NVO $VKTX

[Heikki Keskiväli @hkeskiva]

Gotta love $MSTR metrics.

"Yields" and "Gains" look nice and dandy until one opens Q1 results to realize their all-time $BTC purchases are $14.5 billion underwater.

[ResearchPulse @ResearchPulse1]

https://t.co/iqREp4MIoO

[FollowTheFilings @fdzmurillo]

Let's not be naive about what's happening here.

A central bank in a developed European country does NOT issue macro alerts on a publicly traded company's exports. Ever. These institutions are conservative to the bone. They don't move forecasts on intuition. They don't single out corporations.

And yet the Danish central bank and Danske Bank have raised Denmark's 2026 GDP forecast THREE times in six months — 2.7% → 3.0% → 3.7% — each time explicitly citing Novo Nordisk export acceleration.

Now consider the timing:
• Wegovy pill launched January 5, 2026 — US only
• Wegovy HD 7.2mg approved March 19, 2026 — US only
• Europe gets neither until H2 2026

The Danish central bank is alerting on physical export volumes accelerating SO FAST they can't ignore it — before the two flagship products even reach Europe. Before Medicare Bridge fully activates. Before the international rollout consolidates.

When a central bank breaks protocol to flag this, something is happening that doesn't fit normal categories.

I know this kind of institution. They don't say these things. Not ever. Not about a listed company. The fact that they did means the physical reality is overwhelming the institutional caution.

Q2 results August 6. $NVO

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

“Two simple filters quickly rule out 98% of what we look at”

Charlie Munger & Warren Buffett

[TuOki^ @Tu0ki]

Lisäsin $DCC.L

[TuOki^ @Tu0ki]

@memyselfandi006 I have seen similar investigation on Finnish banks like Nordea. Every time they have been good buying oportunity.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Imagine you spent 40 years doing the boring, responsible thing.

You opened a 401k at 23. You contributed every paycheck. You ignored the noise. You bought the index because Bogle told you to, because Buffett told you to, because every honest piece of financial advice for 30 years told you the index was the safest, most diversified, most rules-based way to own America.

The whole point was the rules.

The rules said: a company must trade for 12 months before joining the S&P 500. The rules said: it must show four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability. The rules existed because in 1999 the index quietly bought a lot of stocks at the top, and pensioners paid the bill.

After the dot-com crash, S&P tightened the rules. Nasdaq tightened the rules. FTSE Russell tightened the rules.

For 23 years, those rules held.

Then SpaceX filed for IPO.

And the rules changed.

The S&P 500 waived the profitability requirement. Nasdaq cut its trading-history window from 90 days to 15. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the major index funds will absorb between 19% and 24% of SpaceX's float within six months. That's over $30 trillion of passive 401k and retirement money, mechanically buying a single newly public company at IPO valuations, because the rules said they had to.

Except the rules used to say they didn't.

Here's the thought exercise:

If you spend 40 years building a system designed to protect ordinary savers from buying overpriced stocks, and then you waive the protections the moment a sufficiently large stock asks you to, what was the system actually protecting?

Most of investing is about understanding what's a rule and what's a guideline.

A rule binds the rule-maker.

A guideline binds the saver.

You're allowed to find out which is which only after the fact.

[Dividend Growth Investor @DividendGrowth]

I often think about this comment

[Dalius - Special Sits @InvestSpecial]

Horizon Kinetics Q1 letter is out.

My favourite with tons of data, as always, on:
1) How capital flooding into bubbles starves other sectors, creating massive discounts elsewhere
2) The case for hard assets, royalties & trading exchanges

Worth a read!

[TuOki^ @Tu0ki]

Hyvin tehty video: https://t.co/jVsnkmYxae

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

When you were taught to value companies based on discounted future cash flows but you just saw a company with no cash flows IPO for a trillion dollars

[Parmita Mishra @parmita]

I don’t know how this claim has gone so viral.

This was actually completely intentional by Novo.

Novo Nordisk does not operate in an “oops. lawyer forgot the $250 CAD fee” manner.

This is, with all due respect, a shallow read of Novo’s actual corporate strategy.

(1/)

[Tokyo Deep Value @TokyoDeepValue]

I flew to Osaka with a 14-page activist letter, a translated copy of my proposed slate of independent directors, a slide deck on capital allocation reform, and what I believed, at the time, was a clear and reasonable demand: that the company, which was sitting on cash equal to 180% of its market cap, return a portion of it to shareholders through a special dividend. I had been working on this campaign for nine months. I had hired a Tokyo-based proxy advisor. I had built a 6% position through patient accumulation. I had, by every framework I understood, done the work.

The chairman, who was 81 years old, received me in a tatami room above the company's headquarters, which sat over a soba restaurant that had been in the same family for four generations. He was wearing a navy suit. He bowed at an angle I could not, with my Western training, accurately reciprocate. He gestured for me to sit on a cushion. I sat. A woman of approximately his own age entered, silently, and placed a small ceramic cup in front of me. The cup contained tea. The tea was lukewarm. I did not yet know that the lukewarm tea was the entire negotiation.

I began with the deck. I had prepared it carefully. I had translated the headers into Japanese. I walked him through the capital structure, the unproductive cash, the historical return on equity, the peer comparison, the proposed dividend. He listened. He did not interrupt. When I had finished, he said, in soft but clear English that I had not been told he spoke, "Thank you for traveling so far." Then he stood up, slowly, and gestured for me to follow him.

We walked down a set of wooden stairs that creaked in a way I cannot adequately describe, through a hallway lined with black-and-white photographs of men I did not recognize, and into a small workshop attached to the back of the building. In the center of the workshop was a lathe. It was old. It was, the chairman explained, the original lathe his grandfather had purchased in 1923 to manufacture the first product the company had ever sold, which was a specific kind of brass valve fitting used in steam locomotives. The locomotive industry had been gone for 60 years. The lathe was still running.

"My grandfather operated this machine," he said. "My father operated this machine. I operated this machine, as a child, before school. The factory you visited yesterday produces components that descend, in an unbroken line of design, from the work that began on this lathe. The cash you wish me to distribute is the result of one hundred and one years of refusing to do anything that would shorten the life of this company. I cannot distribute it. I am not, in the deepest sense, the owner of it. I am the custodian of it. The owner is not yet born."

I did not have a response. I had prepared for many possible responses from him. I had not prepared for this one. We returned to the tatami room. The tea was refreshed. It was, again, lukewarm. The chairman asked me about my family. I told him about my wife, my two children, my parents in suburban Connecticut. He listened with what appeared to be genuine interest. He asked the ages of my children. He nodded gravely when I told him. He asked whether I had ever shown my children the work I do. I had not. He asked whether I would, when I returned. I said I would consider it.

Four hours passed. I was served, at various points, three more cups of tea, a small dish of pickled vegetables I did not recognize, and a single piece of mochi that the chairman's assistant placed in front of me with both hands. Nobody mentioned the activist letter again. Nobody mentioned the dividend, the directors, the deck, the proposal, or the 6% position. We talked about the cherry blossom season, which was apparently late this year. We talked about American baseball, which the chairman had followed since 1962. We talked about a poet I had never heard of, whose work he recited a single line of in Japanese and then translated for me, slowly, into English, and which I have, in the three years since, been entirely unable to locate again.

At the end of the meeting, he stood. He bowed. He thanked me, again, for traveling so far. He said he hoped I would visit again, perhaps with my family, perhaps in the spring, when the city was at its best. He did not, at any point, acknowledge the proposal. He did not decline it. He did not engage with it. He simply, through a series of small and almost invisible movements that I am still trying to understand three years later, allowed the proposal to dissolve into the air of the room, until by the time I left the building, it had ceased to exist as a thing that had been said.

I flew home the next morning. I withdrew the campaign two weeks later, in a quiet letter to the proxy advisor that cited "ongoing discussions" and was technically not a withdrawal at all but was understood, by every party who received it, to be one. The position I sold over the following six months at a small loss. The chairman is still alive. The lathe is still running. The cash is still on the balance sheet.

I cannot, even now, explain what happened in that room. I went in as an activist, with a deck, a translator, and a six percent position, and I came out as a guest who had been thanked, very politely, for visiting a man's home, and who, somewhere in the four hours between the first cup of tea and the last, had been quietly, gently, irreversibly, and without a single raised voice or harsh word, defeated.

I think about him often. I do not think he thinks about me at all. This is, in some sense I am still working out, the entire lesson.

[ResearchPulse @ResearchPulse1]

Wegovy pill will get 3 months headstart over Foundayo in EU

From today’s CHMP meeting at EMA we can see the agenda for this week.

Foundayo will this week have its 120 day procedure presentation.

This means it’s 3 months behind Wegovy pill that had its 120 day meeting 3 months ago.

This means it will be a repeat of US launch with $NVO getting a 3 months headstart over $LLY

And we just learnt today that $NVO is ready for an all out launch as soon as wegovy pill is approved by EMA.

Foundayo though still has an advantage with faster scaling than wegovy pill.

$VKTX