tupatrades

buy high sell low.

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

Saw a cool tweet recently.

“Trading ICT is meant to feel uncomfortable … you are going against the norm”

What a privilege it is to continue to master and perfect this art of trading.

Thank you @I_Am_The_ICT.

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

@samuelgerges__ i’m a mere mortal , idolise the Lord.

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

+1.9k 1.95RR 1BE 1W

Eval Trade.

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

@Esee06257 the inspiration 🙌🙌🙌

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

@Saint_pablo123 i’m waiting for yours 👀

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

@Saint_pablo123 ❤️❤️❤️

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

missed by 60$

gonna kms

man of my word

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

+1.9k 1.95RR 1BE 1W

Eval Trade.

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

Update lost the live account due to inactivity.

That being said feels good to start fresh after all the shit thats happened the past month.

New eval loaded and no stroking around this time.

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

Sell side too Buyside.

Daddy called it.

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

Even if no half day bank holiday would be hesitant to trade.

In-between two nice pools of liquidity.

Ideally, we take lows and continue run higher.

But continuation to highs look great too.

Just about seeing what we hit, when we hit and how we react of it.

Great for a tape read type of day.

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

Even if no half day bank holiday would be hesitant to trade.

In-between two nice pools of liquidity.

Ideally, we take lows and continue run higher.

But continuation to highs look great too.

Just about seeing what we hit, when we hit and how we react of it.

Great for a tape read type of day.

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

Back Live Trading This Week.

Plan:

Monday: No Trade ❌
Tuesday: Trade Day (9:30) ✅
Wedensday: Trade Day (9:30) ✅
Thursday: Trade Day/Caution (9:30) ⚠️
Friday: Trade Day (CPI) (9:30) ✅

Overall, looking quite bullish - will continue to monitor the daily suspension block we are currently trading in as well as delivered out of.

Looking for something like Monday creating low of the week then throughout the week we can look for 29,811 - 30,339 as well as quadrants of the SB being worked.

Hopefully inverting this suspension block instead of dancing between the two - if I notice we are dancing in-between the two suspension blocks with struggle to break, I'd rather conserve capital and what until we break above.

Let's get it.

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

After thorough analysis of the past month of trading and how markets been moving i’ve noticed a couple things i’ll be taking into getting back too live trading next week:

✅ 30-50 point moves are the current sweet spot for market, no real 100+ point moves unless you diamond hand that shit.

✅ Seems like a very directional state/CISD type of entries to focus on … yes you’ll get FVGs but candles tend to immediately balance with wicks.

✅ Allow first 30 minutes of trading to set direction/manipulation, real moves towards intended draw happen within 950am + off market … so most likely going to sit on hands until first 30 min opening range is established.

✅Mondays are terrifically more shit then they where a couple months ago 😭😭😭 so defs no trades monday - not even a consideration.

✅ Wednesday - Thursday remain sweet spots for nicer moves despite recent PA.

✅ Targets are simple continuation off previous sessions, 15 minute highs and HTF suspension blocks - those will be main focus for daily/intraday bias.

✅ Wait for all forms of news to play out - most news has been used to initiate direction as a smoke screen or take out opposing liquidity before the real run.

✅ Elephant displacements outside the 30 min range are A+ confluences too be able to desifer the real move.

Can’t wait to get back into live trading after this weeks paper trading and tape reading to get a feel of market again.

Let’s see where we can take this live account.

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

Had a rough couple weeks, one of my closest friends got in a devastating bike accident while we where in Bali for a trading work trip and too also celebrate my birthday.

My birthday ended up being 22 hours in a Bali hospital praying that he won’t die.

After 5 days, he was managed to get flown out back to Australia in better hands, currently clincally stable but in sever condition with damage done to his head and brain.

Followed by as soon as i landed i caught a flu, making me unable to see him for the past couple days which has eaten me alive.

Good way to vent here since not a lot will see, but i really struggled and broke down today and tonight.

All i could think about was him and possible future outcomes that could affect his life - rendering me incapable of even moving or wanting to talk to anyone.

Stepped into the church today for sunday bible study and that has really brought some life back into me and faith.

Sitting and moping won’t do anything or make him get better, infact filling yourself w positivity and continuing to work hard will make more of a impact.

A week of no trading, no gyming, barely able to sleep, waking up in the mid afternoons, eating like shit and simply not taking care of myself has mentally ruined me on top of the accident.

But T wouldn’t want that and would slap me across the face if he saw how i’ve been living since we’ve been back from Bali.

It’s natural to breakdown and have vulnerable moments but it’s about how you continue to move forward in moments like these, and i don’t want too tell T when he wakes up i’ve done nothing w myself and dissapoint him.

He’s been one of my biggest supporters when it comes to trading and outlook on life so i’m not going to let him down.

This week we continue w standard procedure and better life decisions, not only for myself but to continue to show T the support he’s shown me since i’ve met him won’t go out the door while he’s recovering.

Live trading begins Tuesday as per usual.

I love you T, imma make you proud ❤️.

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

@I_Am_The_ICT thoughts?

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

This/Next week's TA/Prediction breakdown:

This week's HTF price action was spectacular and easy to draw lower timeframe biases off.

Didn't trade at all this week - only days I was present on chart was Tuesday and late Thursday, but nothing showed.

We started this week with a large NWOG, which presented amazing shorts to fill and leave the low of the week to target higher.

We then projected into a D-Propulsion block which I was monitoring, my thesis was if we break above this, we go much higher during the week ... I stood corrected lol.

Tuesday was our runner - then Wednesday and Thursday offering retraces into the D-FVG which we inversed ... so not much action those days, while action was hot first two days of the week.

Expected with NFP on Friday, market tends to be much slower the closer we get NFP.

We had a great close at the IDFVG, and Friday offering higher price .. but NO close above 15/06 NWOG which I was monitoring.

Based on PRICE ACTION and TA, if we close above that 15/06 NWOG I'll be looking to work the event horizons levels between the 3 EQH and ATH's - then potentially aiming for ATH's next week.

I'm looking for those highs next week and based on this week's candles and closures ... we are looking pretty bullish I'm ngl.

The final pin pulled will be the close above the 15/06 NWOG, then a retest - then if we are set for ATH, a clear rip higher after that's done.

Obvs how volatile the Americans are ... unless nothing happens over east, tech stocks remain stable then a NWOG open higher is expected - with 3 EQH possibly being taken out on a Monday/Tuesday.

For now, we monitor news over the weekend in relation to stock markets and War ... and see how we open as that will deduct the week.

Next week away at Bali and trading - focusing heavily on charts and sitting down at London and NY Open.

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

Thesis - "Devil's Advocate"

After some research and extending my knowledge within the FA sector and outside the NQ100 .... The current market has some pretty fucking uncomfortable similarities to the time leading up to the 2008 crash and even worse.

The biggest issue for me is the connection between what stocks are doing and what is happening underneath the economy ...

For me its feels like people have turned a blind eye ...

As if they've gotten "comfortable" with disasters ...

Cause we are designed to only go up ... right?

It's a genny dip, right?

The SP500 and NQ100 continue pushing around/above all-time highs this week - with NQ extremely close and SP managing to hit its target ...

Yet the labor market is weakening?

Job openings have fallen?

Degenerate Gen z is finding it increasingly difficult to enter stable employment and eventually afford a home?

Genz recently where called NEETs on live television...

Just to lyk:

NEET = Not in Education, Employment, or Training.

At the same time housing affordability is extremely poor, with the median first-time homebuyer now around 40 years old and first-time buyers making up only 21% of purchases.

This tickles my pickle of how current housing prices can continue rising if the next generation increasingly cannot afford to buy them ... let alone accept the reality of getting a job.

I believe also a growing risk that markets are pricing in an almost PERFECT future.

Huge amounts of money are being invested into AI infrastructure on the expectation that it will eventually produce major profit - but how will we know, so why is it almost already being priced in.

When Futures continued to rise while escalation in the war was occurring ... WE WHERE BEING PRICED IN EARLY. it made no fucking sense to me why we are running higher.

But we did, and that created expectation and that created false reliability.

That we are designed to move higher despite the circumstances or event occurring.

That everything will be alright.

People are numb ... and that's the worst possible thought process right now.

I hope to God I'm wrong, but I think the markets are at one of the most turnt shoulder ticking time bomb one wrong move and we blow up situations ive seen at my 3 years of trading.

If those returns take longer than expected, while employment and consumer spending continue weakening, highly valued technology stocks could be forced to reprice.

Ive also done some research into US fiscal deficit (spending more than the fuckers can make) and how that adds another layer of risk for me.

The government needs to issue HUGE amounts of debt to fund its deficit, meaning foreign buyers remain important. Essentially betting on other countries other than themselves.

If countries such as Japan increasingly favor their own bonds over US Treasuries or are placed in a situation where they need to sell there Treasurys ... weaker demand could push Treasury yields higher.

"Japan is currently the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, with roughly $1.2 trillion worth."

This would increase mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs and the government's own interest bill.

This is where my comparison to 2008 becomes interesting because the cause may be completely different, but the PSYCOLOGY is similar.

PEOPLE ARE BLIND.

Bad economic news is repeatedly being pushed aside because markets continue rising.

The danger is that investors become so used to ignoring individual warning signs that they fail to recognize when those risks begin connecting with each other.

So, to conclude my thesis, people are blind and are brushing things to the side, this is more dangerous then accepting the danger and what's going on ... WAKE UP.

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

No Trade Recap:

Was v bullish ... was waiting for some sort of manipulation lower - even if it was minor lows or a 1HR/15M FVG

But we ripped and I'm not going to chase - most my targets got hit for today's session.

My eyes are on 15/06 NWOG - looking for a tap into that if we are to continue this bullish trajectory.

Have no intention of shorting due to being in such a large premium.

My model and edge relies on structure and HTF Order flow - not 1000 handles w no pull backs.

Tomorrow's plan might be targeting pull backs especially if we invert this daily FVG - or same plan as tn if dramatically bullish.

We go next.

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

Perfect Judas and shorts too equal lows with 4 potential entries - and i decided to trade London to catch a long.

GGIESSS

[tupatrades @Tupa_Trades]

$NQ Trade Recap:

- 650 ❌

Took a London trade, overall HTF we looked like we were in a MXMM too highs.

Waited for a discount into a 15 min FVG, then we had a SMT and manipulation to take out the low and immediate elephant displacement higher.

Waited for the retrace too the discounted FVG - and then I got raped.

Felt like i kind off forced a trade in London just so I don't need to sit down and trade FOMC, but it actually ended up being very good price action.

Pretty simple - I am just a drone:

1. Taking a MXMM trade inside a range with 2 equal highs, so how tf does that make sense - the swing high and low took no valuable liquidity.

2. FOMC today, simply should have just waited for NY for more volatility and even allowed today and focused on Thursday.

That being said I am concluded this week's trading.

Down 2.1 RR this week, so going to preserve capital going into next week and better conditions.

Mentally I feel okay, Wednesday imo was a good continuation trade - just a little slip up in missing 10 AM news,

Today just should have waited or not traded at all, took a premium long after 2 major distributions hoping there would be a third too highs.

We rest the brain, and go too next week. LETS GO.