Turkey Scrap Guy

Alex Reynolds - McCloskey, part of Dow Jones - Watching Turkish and global scrap/steel markets. Views are my own

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

#Scrap supply comfortable for Turkey for Nov shipment. Even 5 US cargos still available for overseas, on top of around another 13 cargos. Turkish demand estimated at 14 cargos. With China’s inability to help spot prices, McCloskey forecasts US 80:20 sales just below $380/t CFR

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

China steel futures’ drop this week has priced-in a disappointment from China tomorrow. And futures spiked in evening session today - sign of pre-empting some positivity tomorrow. US market expected to be even stronger in Nov - US exporters will not move to lower Turkey bids

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

Turkish #scrap demand pauses after lengthy buy spree. Local rebar demand lost momentum. 23 cargos so far Nov shipment. EU still under pressure to sell from weak domestic demand + desperate to hold onto margins. Turkey demand to return at steady pace after China’s 12 Oct meeting

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

Turkey #scrap price rise cooled end last week. Will only cool further after China lost steam. But demand expected to outweigh supply, so a further rise later is possible. 19 cargos already traded for Nov shipment, 8 bought by one buyer, expect over 40 cargos of demand in total

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

Bids @ $380/t CFR for US HMS 1/2 80:20 #scrap were rejected. Market price maybe stands at $385/t CFR today, could be $390/t by end of week. Buyers still capitalizing on less bullish outlook of sellers. Scrap-rebar spreads reaching best levels since June 2023. Demand is the driver

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

McCloskey’s EU Ferrous Scrap Supply Index Sep 2024 showed a very slight expansion in #scrap supply m-o-m. The 2nd consecutive month of expansion. Residential flow improved notably in Germany. Manufacturing flows tighten further. Sellers will now hold material after China bull run

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

Excess EU supply now sold. Nov shipment next. More + more Chinese stimulus including fiscal talked about. US workers’ strike won’t affect bulk. Indian recovery now showing. If sellers hold, this is a clear path up for Turkish #scrap price. Issue is Germany to be weak again in Oct

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

Iskenderun mills sell #rebar $609/t. Turkey producing export orders early to reduce local availability. Scrap-local rebar spread widest since end Jun ‘23, margins highest since mid Aug ‘23. Still pumping up prices today. EU #scrap sales appetite causes $5/t fall in Turkish price

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

Izmir mill sold #rebar equiv $588-589/t. Lowest price in market. Iskenderun sharply increased offers to equiv $604-609/t. Kardemir sold out @ $600/t. Turkey might have EU #scrap sellers trapped/will widen margins even further. Historically, scrap price would jump in such a market

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

Turkey pushing #steel rebar offers UP + pushing #scrap prices DOWN when margins already at 5-month high - I guess the word is ‘interesting’. US FED cuts 50bps after many months of soft economic data - will help to cut some scrap seller panic. So would a China rise tomorrow…

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

@GULECALI Not Netherlands

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

EU working to get docks down. Helped by weakness of Germany. Might move to $365 US-Turkey (down $5/t) based on latest talks. Not enough offers for a $10/t fall. Small fall most likely. Doubt FED’s 25/50 bps cut will change things short-term, unless China reacts with some force

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

Couple USD fall makes some sense. Netherlands supply is better. McCloskey EU supply index showed small expansion end Aug, and NL shows this today with Germany down avg €25/t. But other EU areas not showing supply change/US tight - Turkey down $10/t (buyer bids) far less logical

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

#Scrap sellers unconvinced by China move but execution of interest rate cut, reserve ratio reduction and Oct #steel production cuts would clearly support. 6+ Turkish buyers have not bought 1x Oct shipment scrap cargo yet. If sell-side is calm at IREPAS, scrap price should be firm

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

@steelmarketnews Yeh, changing every day. CME Fed Watch Tool is the one I look at. Yeh, market expectation all week has been for 25bps

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

@steelmarketnews And 75% chance of 25bps on Monday

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

@steelmarketnews But didn’t increase more than 35% to 85% :) It was 67% chance of 25bps on Tuesday. Just checked Reuters

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

@AlexCar48971112 Was told an Albanian mill being offline is helping Turks’ cause

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

More Chinese billet booked - @ just below $465/t CFR Turkey. #Scrap-rebar margins much better - $585/t fob sales, $592-595/t local sales - mills were short + happy to pay scrap prices for now. But Q4 and now Q1 billet arrivals are fundamentally going to pressure scrap prices Q4

[Turkey Scrap Guy @TurkeyScrapGuy]

@AlexCar48971112 Balkans, today. 5kt from Marmara