Yesterday, I presented at Berlin’s Humboldt University my book “Russia, the Soviet Union and Imperial Continuity in International Law” (OUP). Was great to be back at the university where I did my PhD 25 yr ago. A bonus: prof emer Bernhard Schlinck was around, just like back then.
First report on compensation for the damage caused by internationally wrongful acts now out as document A/CN.4/793 (link next). I am grateful to @IsabelWalther for her excellent research assistance, and to Joshua Kriesmann and @Xuan7Shao for their work with the bibliography.
Finish President @alexstubb wrote an article for @ForeignAffairs.
Alexander Stubb argues that the world order faces a choice: Yalta or Helsinki.
In reality, it is not a choice. It is a systemic and structural global power struggle and Bifurcation of the Global System as I’ve been arguing for the last ten years.
In my view, the global system is entering a new 1945–47 moment. The rules of the 21st century will not be selected by diplomacy, but imposed by the winner of the Cold War 2 between America and the DragonBear.
America is defending an updated Helsinki logic.
China and Russia are pushing for a 21st-century Yalta.
President Stubb is right that the next decade will decide the geopolitical map.
Where he is too optimistic: Europe will not draw it.
Middle powers will adapt to whichever hegemonic model prevails.
This is the decisive geopolitical contest of our century. And the winner takes all once again.
When the world order, balance and dynamics are changing, it is always useful to sit down and gather your thoughts in writing. Here is my take in Foreign Affairs.
Welcomed five Central Asian government leaders in D.C. for the C5+1 Tenth Anniversary Business Conference to discuss new investments and trade agreements that will create jobs and export opportunities for U.S. firms while strengthening regional economies. Under President Trump’s leadership, America's foreign policy builds partnerships that defend our interests and promote peace and prosperity.