Soybean oil futures (ZL) rose sharply over the last 24 hours, closing near 71.64 after gaining roughly 2.0โ2.3 cents (approximately 3.3%), with reports noting new multi-year highs amid leadership in the soy complex. This move followed a strong rebound in crude oil prices on April 20 (up more than $3โ5 per barrel in some sessions), as optimism from a brief Friday reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded over the weekend. Iran re-closed the critical waterway, with shipping traffic largely halted into April 21 amid renewed tensions, attacks on vessels, and ongoing U.S.-Iran disputes. The correlation is well-established: higher crude boosts demand for soybean oil in biodiesel and renewable diesel production under U.S. biofuel mandates (including 45Z credits and EPA renewable volume obligations). Recent USDA reports had already highlighted strong soybean oil use for biofuels (around 14 billion pounds projected for 2025/26), tightening stocks and supporting prices. Soybeans followed modestly higher on the oil strength, while soymeal lagged. U.S. planting progress (12% complete as of April 19, ahead of average) and China trade optimism provided additional context but were secondary to the energy linkage. Financial news outlets and government data on oil flows corroborate the geopolitical catalyst reversing prior easing from temporary ceasefires.
โIn the stock market, youโre playing probabilities, not certainties; that means you cannot be correct all the time. If you make more on your winners than you lose on your losers over time, thatโs all you need to accomplish to be successful.โ
โจโ Mark Minervini