Tyler

Luxembourg’s Finest

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

My $BHLL $BNKR.TO shares were immediately borrowed short, but honestly like the deal. Shores up balance sheet and most importantly makes the combined entity likely to receive favorable government financing as a critical mineral producer for new projects.

https://t.co/NrbyU8PuuE

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

@TheREALMADriD94 @Polarbeer11 Yes, but mandatory minimum bid will never be successful. Just the buybacks would retire 25% of the float outside Dart and Founders. Actively purchasing here and crossing threshold shows he is going to accelerate reducing the float for eventual take private.

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

Takeover bid incoming! $EVO

Kenneth Dart actively bought another 2.05M shares yesterday, taking his voting stake to 30.02%—just over Sweden’s mandatory-bid threshold—and total exposure to 32.04%.

He now has 4 weeks to bid for the rest. $EVVTY

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

@Polarbeer11 Why? A successful bid will be 1000SEK minimum.

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

Q2 revenue: -1.2% reported/+2.4% FX-adjusted—yet $EVVTY $EVO is a compounding monster: €258m quarterly FCF, 65.9% EBITDA margin. Only 60.7% of shares remain outside Dart, founders & treasury; 2.6% was repurchased in 6 weeks. The €2B program can retire ~16%. 2027 metrics below.

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

$BHLL $BNKR.TO US based critical minerals supply chain play with silver optionality just moved out of pre-revenue stage. Ticks all the boxes for cheap strategic government financing. Will rerate as soon as capital structure improves and mine hits full production in H2 2026.

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

$DIDIY Solid Q3:
• Transactions +14% YoY (Intl +24%)
• GTV +15% YoY
• Revenue +9% YoY

IPO: 316.8M ADRs
Buybacks so far: 290.9M
Float left: ~26M (13% retired in Q3)

With $2B buyback authorization, DiDi can retire the OTC float several times over before imminent HK relisting.

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

Complete and utter capitulation from Fintwit will always and forever be the strongest buy signal known to man. $EVO $EVVTY

[Rene Sellmann @ReneSellmann]

Cutting Evolution Gaming $EVO – A Few Thoughts 👇🏻

I decided to take a small loss on Evolution Gaming today. It wasn’t a big position and I didn’t lose much – around 6% – thanks to having bought in at what I thought was a pretty attractive price. That alone made the decision easier. But I still think it’s worth unpacking what went into it, because the story around Evolution remains fascinating.

When Cheap Isn’t Enough
Let’s start with the positives. Valuation still looks undemanding. When I last valued the business, it was trading around 11x free cash flow, which would now put it at roughly a 10% FCF yield. On a more conservative basis – only counting the "regulated markets" FCF – the multiple comes closer to 30x FCF based on conservative margin assumptions. For a company with Evolution’s business model and clearly leading market position, that’s not expensive.

The business continues to return capital to shareholders, and as long as it’s not structurally declining, those buybacks and dividends should carry investors to decent returns. A rerate to even 15x FCF could do wonders. And when sentiment turns – which it probably will at some point – the stock could rebound quickly. We’ve seen this movie before with Medpace $MEDP recently when expectations were rock-bottom and the stock exploded after a decent quarter (it's close to a double from the lows now), and even with Edenred just this week $EDEN (a 20% 1-day pop after solid results; HSD growth). A single quarter of 8–9% growth could easily trigger a 15–20% move for $EVO too.

Why Sell Then?
So why did I still sell? Because I’ve become more open to stepping away from positions where fundamentals alone don’t tell the full story. The latest outlook and commentary on the earnings call didn’t exactly inspire confidence. There’s a decent chance we’ll see more lackluster quarters ahead and the stock does nothing.

To me, that means dead capital. Even if downside is limited, so is upside – and the opportunity cost starts to matter. If you’re looking for a solid dividend, some buyback support, and a low bar for a turnaround, Evolution might still fit your style. It just doesn’t fit mine right now.

Structural Headwinds – And Why Asia Worries Me
What keeps me uneasy are the structural headwinds that seem more significant than I initially assumed. Asia remains a real puzzle. If Evolution can find effective mechanisms to combat cybercrime activities, that could strengthen the moat dramatically and add another layer to the already strong moat. Same with ringfencing and regulatory compliance – the more complex the infrastructure, the higher the barriers to entry.

But the other side of that coin is clear. Those very efforts create friction for growth and put pressure on margins. And as the latest results show, finding the right balance between compliance and ambition isn’t trivial. Overshoot, and you stifle growth; undershoot, and you risk regulatory blowback.

I'm worried $EVO falls in the "legacy moat" bucket today. A company that clearly is highly competitively advantaged but that lacks reinvestment opportunities to benefit from the moat; the moat protects high ROIC, but if there are no/little reinvestment opportunities to leverage that ROIC, the moat becomes much less valuable.

The New Landscape of Gambling & Entertainment
Another thought that’s been forming recently: competition may now come from directions I didn’t use to consider. Prediction markets, gambling on speculative assets (I just today tweeted about the $2B market cap drop in the Counter-Strike skins market), AND even the stock market itself!

The New York Times this week published an op-ed titled “Gambling. Investing. Gaming. There’s No Difference Anymore.”

The author wrote:

“If it feels as if gambling is everywhere, that’s because it is. But today’s gamblers aren’t just retirees at poker tables. They’re young men on smartphones. And thanks to a series of quasi-legal innovations by the online wagering industry, Americans can now bet on virtually anything from their investment accounts.

In recent years, this industry has been gamifying the investing experience; on brightly colored smartphone apps, risking your money is as easy and attractive as playing Candy Crush. On the app of the investment brokerage Robinhood, users can now buy stocks on one tab, “bet” on Oscars outcomes on another and trade crypto on a third.”

That quote stood out to me. On the same Robinhood $HOOD app, you can buy stocks, bet on the Oscars, and trade crypto – all within seconds. The lines are blurring fast. And of course, every other entertainment platform – TikTok, YouTube, Netflix, gaming, Sora – competes for the same attention span.

I still believe Evolution’s business model is one of the best ever designed. For anyone unfamiliar, I’d recommend the @Speedwell_LLC podcast with Todd Haushalter, which captures just how unique and difficult to run this model is. But it’s hard to ignore that the best days of growth might already be behind the company.

Lessons from a Familiar Pattern
This situation reminds me a bit of my short-lived investment in The Italian Sea Group $TISG. That too looked like a straightforward 10% yield play. But I underestimated the impact of the Bayesian yacht incident – shrugged it off as a non-event – and later realized it wasn’t. Cutting that position was the right call, and the stock’s down another 25% since.

Maybe I’m making a similar judgment call here, and maybe I’m wrong. Again, one good quarter and the stock flies. But investing isn’t about being right all the time. It’s about managing risk, freeing up capital, and positioning yourself for better odds elsewhere.

A Word on Management
One lingering question for me is leadership. At one point today, I genuinely wondered whether the CEO is still the right person to lead the company through this phase. To be fair, he handled the call well – no sugarcoating, direct answers, good grasp of the challenges. But performance has been lackluster for several quarters now. Execution needs to speak louder than words soon.

I’m still keeping an eye on Evolution. It’s a remarkable business with a fortress-like model, but right now, I see more attractive opportunities elsewhere. Cheap can protect your downside, but sometimes it also traps your capital. I’d rather stay patient, keep my optionality, and wait for setups that align more cleanly with both my conviction and my time horizon.

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

$KSPI at $73 is getting silly. 44.6% revenue growth and 67% EBITDA. One of the only members of the Rule of 110 club trading at 2.7 EV/EBITDA. Geopolitical risk is priced in and any positive developments between Russia/Ukraine is major upside catalyst.

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

@blulou1629442 This is huge! Between both 2021 IPO banks initiating coverage (GS, JPM), buying back 90% of IPO float and shareholder IPO settlement, HK IPO announcement is imminent! Such a fat pitch (still super far away from likely IPO price)!

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

DiDi IPO: 316.8M ADRs for $4.4B
Buyback (as of Aug ’25): 286.8M ADRs for $1.26B

There are only 30M ADRs left and $737M remaining authorization.

$DIDIY can buy back OTC float multiple times over and set price for HK IPO. Best risk/reward out there.

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

@MusingInvestor Yes! JPM initiated coverage with $10 price target!This is pure signal! DIDIY has bought back 90% of ADR float as of 9/25 and settled shareholders IPO lawsuit. There is no way you spend $2-3B on these actions if public announcement HK listing process is not imminent!

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

$DIDIY just dropped strong Q2 earnings across all growth metrics:
Transactions +15% YoY (Intl +25%)
GTV +14% YoY
Revenue +11% YoY

Biggest news is $740MM shareholder settlement agreement to waive liability for US delisting. Super bullish key step for re-listing in HK next year.

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

$NESN $NESN.SW $NSRGY

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

@doomerzoomer Easy double when HK IPO is announced for H1 2026. Goldman (bank DIDI hired for delisting/relisting in 2021) initiated coverage last month.

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

@BVerboeket @DeepValueStonks I was about to say the same thing. Only started a small position in CRON when it became a net-net. If EV goes negative again would buy more.

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

@MusingInvestor It’s really hard for me to imagine you IPO for less than $60B market cap considering business is bigger than it was in 2021 at ~7OB IPO. Feels conservative against Uber or potential Bolt IPO valuation.

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

Clear controlled buyback activity in $DIDIY last four sessions to raise ADR price stepwise. Company would most likely to do this 4-8 weeks out from HK IPO timeline becoming public. Buybacks are supported by $2B authorization. Closest thing to free money in the market.

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

@MusingInvestor Price action is super unusual and consistent for the last four days (step increase and holding floor in tight band) combined w/ Goldman coverage (hired for delisting in US and re-listing in HK in 2021). $2B in buybacks can buy the entire average daily volume for 200 trading days

[Tyler @Tyler44037085]

@blulou1629442 Goldman was hired for US delisting and HK listing in December 2021. Bullish that HK listing could be in early stages. Price action was consistent again with buybacks setting ADR floor yesterday for third straight day.