TylerOnTheHill

Political news & elections analysis | Polls, early vote, DC takes | Unfortunately a Cowboys fan

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

I'm Tyler. I'll be sharing my thoughts on politics, elections, and whatever's happening in Washington.

I approach politics from a liberal perspective, but I value facts over vibes

Expect political analysis, occasional humor, and probably some frustration with the Dallas Cowboys

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

Genuinely shocked

The first time EVER the second place finisher won the runoff

We just witnessed history. Congratulations Brazil! 🇧🇷

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

🇧🇷 Datafolha: Lula da Silva wins re-election as Brazil's president.

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

4/ Caveats:
This is unofficial data from 177 counties, voting in a primary isn't a vote in the general, and crossover voters count in both rows.

But the energy gap in favor of Dems is real and it's coming from the low engagement voters

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

1/ The most interesting thing about the Texas early vote isn't the D vs R topline.

It's WHICH voters are turning up👇

[Theo @theoelections]

Here is how the high Democratic enthusiasm looks compared to 2024 and 2022.

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

3/ The GOP equivalent:
434,845 by day 6, vs 614,861 in 2024.

And even the most loyal Republicans, who voted in all 4 GOP primaries, are behind 2024 (272,043 vs 310,565).

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

Bellwether that he knows he's going to be out of a job.

Best time to look for a job is while you still have one!

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Puck News: Pete Hegseth is trying to convince Marsha Blackburn to appoint him to her US Senate seat if she wins the governor’s race in Tennessee.

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

@paulesq711 @ZacharyDonnini Will have to buck* - Sorry, I blame NFL Redzone

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

Link to the poll: https://t.co/GL9MHoioAb

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

A swing of ~47,000 towards Democrats compared to same time frame in 2024.

Not what you want to see if you're camp Lombardo

[umichvoter @umichvoter]

Nevada firewall grew to 🔵 D+15,600 last night

The same day equivalent in 2024 was 🔴 R+32,000

Election Day was only R+1% in 2024 but obviously that can change from election to election

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

Not exactly the 2024 electorate, but close to it! He appears to have frozen his day to day numbers at a roughly R+12 split, regardless of who actually has voted. It's bad faith, but they know that

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

1/ That graphic going around saying Republicans lead Texas early voting by ~330K? It's a model. Texas has no party registration. Here's what the voter file says when you sort voters by which primaries they've voted in, through Oct 24 👇

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

5/ This race is close and always has been. Texas is a red state after all! But modeling the 2026 electorate with a R+12 split that doesn't move day to day, no matter who shows up, is malpractice. This is a non-presidential year, and we know the environment will be much bluer

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

4/ And the 29.7% with no primary history aren't a GOP bloc. Talarico wins independents 66-28 (TPOR) and 57-20 (On Point). Even Rasmussen, which has the race tied, has 2024 non-voters going Talarico 67-13.

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

4/Caveats:
TX doesn’t record race on registration, so this is modeled ethnicity, not a hard count. Turnout ≠ vote choice, and TX Hispanics lean more R than Hispanics nationally.

If this holds (higher Hispanic share, lower White share), it would be a more Democratic voting pop than 24 — data most polls are still underestimating.

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

1/ Texas early vote is near 2.9M ballots, and Hispanic turnout has already passed where it was at this point in 2024 — a presidential year.

[Tom Bonier @tbonier]

As turnout in Texas nears 3 million votes, Hispanic turnout is now exceeding presidential levels. More Hispanics have voted than did at this point in the 2024 presidential election. What's driving this huge increase? Young voters.

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

3/
The White share of early votes has dropped from 61.8% in 2024 to 54.6% so far this cycle — a 7-point decline.

The increase in Hispanic share is driven largely by younger voters.