tylor

@Tytropolis

full time trader | every day is a gift | views are my own

ATX

Joined November 2016

5.3K Following

4.2K Followers

23.6K Posts

Tytropolis retweeted

Adam Weitsman

@AdamWeitsman

about 13 hours ago

Let’s all push each other to greatness ….🙏

623

284

43K

tylor

@Tytropolis

about 13 hours ago

Oh wow

Anthropic

@AnthropicAI

1 day ago

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: https://t.co/bwn0sximKZ

12K

85K

25K

23K

82M

tylor

@Tytropolis

3 days ago

@KrutzkyTrades @fomo @MINHxDYNASTY 🙌🙌

Tytropolis retweeted

JonnyFutures

@JonnyFutes

4 days ago

YOU NEED TO READ THIS IF YOU TRACE PROP FIRMS: Your 70% win rate prop account is still mathematically doomed. Not because your strategy is bad. Because of a 100-year-old math problem called Gambler’s Ruin. Let me explain, because this is the single most expensive thing traders don’t understand. Gambler’s Ruin is a proven mathematical result: when a player with a LIMITED bankroll plays against an opponent with an UNLIMITED one, the limited player will eventually go broke if they bet too large a fraction of their bankroll even when the odds favor them. Even with an edge, you can be mathematically guaranteed to blow up. The edge isn’t the problem. The bet size is. Now map it to your funded account: You are the limited player. Your bankroll isn’t your $50K account it’s your $2K trailing drawdown. The market is the unlimited player. It can stay irrational, choppy, and stop-hunty longer than your drawdown can survive. Here’s where the 70% win rate lies to you. At 1:1 risk-reward, risking $100 a trade, your expectancy is +$40 per trade. Positive. Profitable. On paper, a money printer. But expectancy is an AVERAGE over thousands of trades. Your drawdown doesn’t experience the average. It experiences the SEQUENCE. And sequences contain losing streaks guaranteed. At a 30% loss rate, a 4-loss streak feels impossible. It’s not. Over 200 trades, there’s roughly an 80% chance it happens to you at least once. A 5-loss streak? About 38%. Nothing to do with bad luck. They’re scheduled appearances. So the only question that matters is: how many consecutive losses can your drawdown absorb? $2K trailing DD risking $100/trade = 20 losses of room. The streak hits, you survive, your edge keeps working. Same account risking $500/trade = 4 losses of room. The streak hits, you’re done. Same strategy. Same 70% win rate. Dead account. And prop firms add a twist Bernoulli never imagined: the TRAILING drawdown. Every dollar you make, the floor rises with you. Your buffer never grows. You’re permanently playing with the same short stack no matter how much you win(varies with some firms) The brutal conclusion: most traders don’t fail because their strategy stops working. They fail because they sized their bets for their account balance instead of their drawdown, and then a completely normal, statistically inevitable losing streak showed up on schedule. The fix is one rule: your drawdown divided by your risk per trade should be 15-20 minimum On a $2K DD, that’s $100-130 risk. One or two micros. I won’t lie - I’m not this tight with risk, but this is where the math leads Boring. Gambler’s Ruin doesn’t kill boring traders. It only kills the ones who never ran the math.

$JonnyFutes's tweet photo. YOU NEED TO READ THIS IF YOU TRACE PROP FIRMS: Your 70% win rate prop account is still mathematically doomed. Not because your strategy is bad. Because of a 100-year-old math problem called Gambler’s Ruin. Let me explain, because this is the single most expensive thing traders don’t understand. Gambler’s Ruin is a proven mathematical result: when a player with a LIMITED bankroll plays against an opponent with an UNLIMITED one, the limited player will eventually go broke if they bet too large a fraction of their bankroll even when the odds favor them. Even with an edge, you can be mathematically guaranteed to blow up. The edge isn’t the problem. The bet size is. Now map it to your funded account: You are the limited player. Your bankroll isn’t your $50K account it’s your $2K trailing drawdown. The market is the unlimited player. It can stay irrational, choppy, and stop-hunty longer than your drawdown can survive. Here’s where the 70% win rate lies to you. At 1:1 risk-reward, risking $100 a trade, your expectancy is +$40 per trade. Positive. Profitable. On paper, a money printer. But expectancy is an AVERAGE over thousands of trades. Your drawdown doesn’t experience the average. It experiences the SEQUENCE. And sequences contain losing streaks guaranteed. At a 30% loss rate, a 4-loss streak feels impossible. It’s not. Over 200 trades, there’s roughly an 80% chance it happens to you at least once. A 5-loss streak? About 38%. Nothing to do with bad luck. They’re scheduled appearances. So the only question that matters is: how many consecutive losses can your drawdown absorb? $2K trailing DD risking $100/trade = 20 losses of room. The streak hits, you survive, your edge keeps working. Same account risking $500/trade = 4 losses of room. The streak hits, you’re done. Same strategy. Same 70% win rate. Dead account. And prop firms add a twist Bernoulli never imagined: the TRAILING drawdown. Every dollar you make, the floor rises with you. Your buffer never grows. You’re permanently playing with the same short stack no matter how much you win(varies with some firms) The brutal conclusion: most traders don’t fail because their strategy stops working. They fail because they sized their bets for their account balance instead of their drawdown, and then a completely normal, statistically inevitable losing streak showed up on schedule. The fix is one rule: your drawdown divided by your risk per trade should be 15-20 minimum On a $2K DD, that’s $100-130 risk. One or two micros. I won’t lie - I’m not this tight with risk, but this is where the math leads Boring. Gambler’s Ruin doesn’t kill boring traders. It only kills the ones who never ran the math.$

168

197

15K

Who to follow

Jai Jai

@JaiJaiApe

NemoOcean.eth | BAYC1911 | History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme | Rule: You cannot win all money, but can lose all

Stoned Abu 🍌

@StonedAbu

#BAYC 3625 - Top 0.01% Shitcoin Trader - 888

5 days ago

It’s all rigged bros NBA Finals Elections Stock Market Nike Sneakers App Games at State Fair All of it

tylor

@Tytropolis

6 days ago

@paxtrader777 Pax help me understand when you take some off or move to BE, first ladder rotation?

386

tylor

@Tytropolis

7 days ago

@MattMematic moving from Chicago to Indiana is what to the current fans in Chicago?

tylor

@Tytropolis

8 days ago

Thousands of Bears fans just became Packers fans lmao Y’all been waiting your whole life for a good reason to switch Your own city gave it to you Welcome aboard lads

tylor

@Tytropolis

8 days ago

@SuperBitcoinBro Valid takes SuperBro and it was a great call 76-82. Keep doing your thing maybe I missed the call for shorts I seem to only see your bull posts. I’ve come to respect your analysis since I started following

127

tylor

@Tytropolis

8 days ago

Bottom signal you say??

CoinDesk

@CoinDesk

10 days ago

LATEST: More than half of all $BTC in circulation is now held at an unrealized loss, a signal that has coincided with every major bear market bottom in history.