The UFC Analyzer

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

2/2 on picks. Only bet for the night will hit! 🤝

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

I did analyze the card, not a whole lot that was sticking out to me. Pacheco does get hurt, but has never been finished (even in fights he's gotten knocked down). There is some risk here, but I think the sig strikes line is low. I think this fight goes into rd 2, 3 or even to dec.

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

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[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

@yElff_ I'll box you. I actually have experience and can make it out to Vegas. Pro bout on a sanctioned card?

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

@IntrestingNotI1 @lookatmyopinion Not his wife that's Kaitlin Young his striking coach.

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

UFC Quick Breakdowns:
(Matchup | Winner | Method | Reason)
Emmett vs Vallejos | Vallejos | Decision | Volume + Emmett decline
Vallejos is the significantly more active striker and Emmett's decline is severe. Emmett's path to victory is landing a power shot early, but Vallejos's 58% striking defense and movement should keep him safe. Expect Vallejos to outvolume Emmett 2:1 and cruise to a decision against a fading veteran.

Lemos vs Robertson | Robertson | Decision/Sub | Wrestling control
Robertson's wrestling should neutralize Lemos's power. Lemos was controlled by Suarez and Jandiroba (submitted) - grapplers give her problems. Robertson is on a 4-fight streak and TKO'd Marina Rodriguez. The grappling mismatch favors Robertson heavily. Some concern as Robertson seemed to be limping at weigh ins.

Sy vs Cutelaba | Sy | Decision | Younger, more technical
Sy is the younger, more technical fighter. Cutelaba at 8-10-1 in the UFC is on the decline - his recent split decision losses show diminishing returns. Sy should outwork him on the feet and use wrestling to control pace when needed.

Fili vs Delgado | Delgado | Decision | Volume advantage
This is a close fight. Delgado's volume advantage is significant (54.7 vs 46 SS/Rd) but Fili's wrestling provides a path. Delgado's 100% finish rate (2 KOs) is concerning for Fili who has 100% getting finished rate recently. Expect a competitive fight where Delgado's output gives him the edge.

Petrino vs Asplund | Asplund | Late TKO or Dec | Cardio and Pace
Despite the stat projections favoring Asplund's volume, Petrino has faced REAL competition. Asplund's 170 SS against Sean Sharaf is inflated - Sharaf is not UFC caliber. Petrino's experience and power could be the difference maker. I do think Apslund has a path if he can not get taken down/controlled and put up crazy volume. Petrino could slow as fight goes and Asplund could finish. Biggest risk for Asplund is going to be an early sub if Petrino can get him down early.

B. Silva vs C. Johnson | C. Johnson | Decision (SD) | Slight defense edge
This is essentially a coin flip (50.2% vs 49.8% win probability). Both fighters have been finished recently and both can finish. Johnson's slightly better defense and movement give him the edge, but Bruno's wrestling could steal rounds.

Tavares vs Anders | Anders | Decision (SD) | Power + wrestling mix
Both fighters are past their prime but Anders has shown more recent success (TKO over Weidman) while Tavares has been TKO'd twice in recent fights. Anders's power and wrestling give him multiple paths. Expect a grinding, low-action decision.

Curtis vs Orolbai | Orolbai | Decision | Wrestling neutralizes striking
Curtis is the better striker but Orolbai's wrestling should neutralize that advantage. Orolbai is on a 2-fight finish streak (TKO'd Hermansson, submitted Musayev) while Curtis is coming off a TKO loss to Kopylov. The grappling differential is the deciding factor.

Rodriguez vs Hughes | Rodriguez | Decision | Rematch - same advantages as 1st fight
Rodriguez won the first fight by decision and nothing has changed significantly. Her wrestling (5.33 TD/Rd) vs Hughes's TDD (69-70%) still favors Rodriguez. Hughes has improved but not enough to change the fundamental dynamic.

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

@blakejd98 🙏

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

UFC Quick Breakdowns:
(Matchup | Winner | Method | Reason)
Emmett vs Vallejos | Vallejos | Decision | Volume + Emmett decline
Vallejos is the significantly more active striker and Emmett's decline is severe. Emmett's path to victory is landing a power shot early, but Vallejos's 58% striking defense and movement should keep him safe. Expect Vallejos to outvolume Emmett 2:1 and cruise to a decision against a fading veteran.

Lemos vs Robertson | Robertson | Decision/Sub | Wrestling control
Robertson's wrestling should neutralize Lemos's power. Lemos was controlled by Suarez and Jandiroba (submitted) - grapplers give her problems. Robertson is on a 4-fight streak and TKO'd Marina Rodriguez. The grappling mismatch favors Robertson heavily. Some concern as Robertson seemed to be limping at weigh ins.

Sy vs Cutelaba | Sy | Decision | Younger, more technical
Sy is the younger, more technical fighter. Cutelaba at 8-10-1 in the UFC is on the decline - his recent split decision losses show diminishing returns. Sy should outwork him on the feet and use wrestling to control pace when needed.

Fili vs Delgado | Delgado | Decision | Volume advantage
This is a close fight. Delgado's volume advantage is significant (54.7 vs 46 SS/Rd) but Fili's wrestling provides a path. Delgado's 100% finish rate (2 KOs) is concerning for Fili who has 100% getting finished rate recently. Expect a competitive fight where Delgado's output gives him the edge.

Petrino vs Asplund | Asplund | Late TKO or Dec | Cardio and Pace
Despite the stat projections favoring Asplund's volume, Petrino has faced REAL competition. Asplund's 170 SS against Sean Sharaf is inflated - Sharaf is not UFC caliber. Petrino's experience and power could be the difference maker. I do think Apslund has a path if he can not get taken down/controlled and put up crazy volume. Petrino could slow as fight goes and Asplund could finish. Biggest risk for Asplund is going to be an early sub if Petrino can get him down early.

B. Silva vs C. Johnson | C. Johnson | Decision (SD) | Slight defense edge
This is essentially a coin flip (50.2% vs 49.8% win probability). Both fighters have been finished recently and both can finish. Johnson's slightly better defense and movement give him the edge, but Bruno's wrestling could steal rounds.

Tavares vs Anders | Anders | Decision (SD) | Power + wrestling mix
Both fighters are past their prime but Anders has shown more recent success (TKO over Weidman) while Tavares has been TKO'd twice in recent fights. Anders's power and wrestling give him multiple paths. Expect a grinding, low-action decision.

Curtis vs Orolbai | Orolbai | Decision | Wrestling neutralizes striking
Curtis is the better striker but Orolbai's wrestling should neutralize that advantage. Orolbai is on a 2-fight finish streak (TKO'd Hermansson, submitted Musayev) while Curtis is coming off a TKO loss to Kopylov. The grappling differential is the deciding factor.

Rodriguez vs Hughes | Rodriguez | Decision | Rematch - same advantages as 1st fight
Rodriguez won the first fight by decision and nothing has changed significantly. Her wrestling (5.33 TD/Rd) vs Hughes's TDD (69-70%) still favors Rodriguez. Hughes has improved but not enough to change the fundamental dynamic.

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

UFC PrizePicks:
Oumar Sy over 1.5 Rds (Green Goblin)
Vitor Petrino over 1.5 Rds (Green Goblin)

There is some slight concern about a Petrino sub if he can secure an early takedown, but I expect the fight to mostly stay standing, with maybe some clinch work and cage control. Hopefully, having Thomas Peterson in the gym will have Asplund well prepared.

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

2026 UFC Analyzer PrizePicks Recap:
UFC 324 - 5/5 turned $100 into $281.25 = $181.25 profit UFC 325 - 4/4 turned $40 into $141.50 = $101.50 profit UFC 2/7 - 3/4 turned $40 into $23.13 = $16.87 loss
UFC 2/21 - 5/8 turned $270 into $201 = $69 loss
UFC 2/28 - 2/2 turned $203.13 into $446.89 = $243.76 profit
UFC 326 - 3/5 turned $200 into $97.09 = $102.91 loss

Total profit = $337.73 💰

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

UFC 326 Recap: I'll go 3/5 on the night.
2 sig strikes from Aguilar is the difference between profit. 🤮

Su Mudaerji Over 48.5 ss ✅
Caio Borralho Over 2.5 Rds ✅
Charles Oliveira Over 1.5 Rds ✅
Jesus Aguilar Over 32.5 ss 🟥
Rob Font Over 25.5-27.5 ss 🟥

I've build custom algorithms to give me the highest % prop bets and then use some human intuition. For Aguilar I think it wasn't a terrible read in the end still. Su played more into the grappling than I assumed (I thought he'd avoid it more because of the possible submission threat) but even in a fight where Aguilar gave up 11 takedowns he still got to 35 ss.
Rob Font is the worse one imo. For Rosas he let Morales get to 17ss, Aoriqileng get to 22ss and C Rod get to 29 ss, and they all have much lower output than Rob Font on the feet. I knew Rob was going to get taken down but I thought he'd try to get up more. Font got to 95ss vs Matsumoto giving up 7 TDs 61 vs Phillips giving up 4 TDs, 45 vs Figgy giving up 4. Terrible performance, even on the feet just had no urgency, swinging wild hooks (opening himself up for the takedown).

When you win you never need an explanation lol.

I made some back live betting last night. Only lost on RDR and Fernandez which technically were pre fight.

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

UFC 326 Recap: I'll go 3/5 on the night.
2 sig strikes from Aguilar is the difference between profit. 🤮

Su Mudaerji Over 48.5 ss ✅
Caio Borralho Over 2.5 Rds ✅
Charles Oliveira Over 1.5 Rds ✅
Jesus Aguilar Over 32.5 ss 🟥
Rob Font Over 25.5-27.5 ss 🟥

I've build custom algorithms to give me the highest % prop bets and then use some human intuition. For Aguilar I think it wasn't a terrible read in the end still. Su played more into the grappling than I assumed (I thought he'd avoid it more because of the possible submission threat) but even in a fight where Aguilar gave up 11 takedowns he still got to 35 ss.
Rob Font is the worse one imo. For Rosas he let Morales get to 17ss, Aoriqileng get to 22ss and C Rod get to 29 ss, and they all have much lower output than Rob Font on the feet. I knew Rob was going to get taken down but I thought he'd try to get up more. Font got to 95ss vs Matsumoto giving up 7 TDs 61 vs Phillips giving up 4 TDs, 45 vs Figgy giving up 4. Terrible performance, even on the feet just had no urgency, swinging wild hooks (opening himself up for the takedown).

When you win you never need an explanation lol.

I made some back live betting last night. Only lost on RDR and Fernandez which technically were pre fight.

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

PrizePicks for UFC 326:

Rob Font 🔼 Over 25.5-27.5 Significant Strikes
Jesus Santos Aguilar 🔼 Over 32.5 Significant Strikes
Su Mudaerji 🔼 Over 48.5 Significant Strikes
Caio Borralho vs Reinier Ridder 🔼 Over 2.5 Rounds
Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira 🔼 Over 1.5 Rounds

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

Was hoping de Ridder would push the pace more, get to thr clinch and takedown earlier in the rd. Striking offense and defense looked terrible.

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

Dog play on de Ridder.

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

Good thing I didn't cash out lol

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

@MmaRicky https://t.co/lLfTttYllu

[Marlo Stanfield. @AAOnline94]

Michael Johnson has been paid to lose by R2 TKO today the gang called Gangster Disciples coming out of St Louis, Missouri are holding his nephew hostage

#UFC326

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

@Combat_History Ps I had no action on the fight was just watching along

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

Idk Herb said out loud after the first one (you could hear on the broadcast) it was a legal kick and Cody was shooting into it which caused it to hit the cup. Imo that means it doesn't really count. Why even say that otherwise. 🤷‍♂️ To me that means the first one (technically the second but first doesn't count) should've been a hard warning regardless of Cody throwing up.

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

Good thing I didn't cash out lol

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

That hit. Let's see what this Dober line is all about. Mj looked terrible in that backstage footage.

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

Live sprinkle on this fight goes to decision

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

Maybe a bad read MJ looking fast and sharp 😢 see if i can find a good time to exit

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

@VerdictMMA Judges gave him rd 1 somehow

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

Live sprinkle on this fight goes to decision

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

Another live one on Montes.

[The UFC Analyzer @UFCAnalyzer]

Late live bet on Nurgozhay. Seemed in control from rd 1. A couple bad positions but able to survive. Win some of that back.