Bingo. Realistically Germany would need to be spending 5+% on defense for multiple years (likely a decade or more) and undergo a complete cultural overhaul with respect to the military to produce the kind of military capability that should be expected from it.
the us navy imposed freedom of navigation disproportionately benefits poor countries
if the unholy alliance of far right isolationists and far left anti-interventionists gets what it wants, only countries w advanced navies will be able to benefit from trade
There is NO meaningful decoupling of global trade from China. China's trade surplus with countries like Mexico (black) and Vietnam (blue) is up massively. Those goods don't stay in Mexico or Vietnam. They're trans-shipped to the rest of the world. No decoupling, only rejiggering.
The U.S. is in great danger. We are facing a possible war with China. And if it happened today, there's a significant chance we'd lose.
We need to have more of a sense of urgency about this.
https://t.co/QBM0gXkfTp
Possibly my favorite "WW2 US industrial might" story yet.
Plane a little dinged up after a mission? Bulldoze it off the side of the carrier/airbase and get a shiny new one.
This is a really important piece by @mattyglesias.
I love the framing of "Malthusian institutions"—groups and special interests worried about protecting their own proverbial nuts and berries—creating mass scarcity out of (ironically) a fear of scarcity.
https://t.co/Cu3STHwhI6
NEW: The US has a much higher stake in Russia's war on Ukraine than most people think.
As Americans consider the costs of continuing to help Ukraine fight the Russians in the coming years, they deserve a careful consideration of the costs of allowing Russia to win. 🧵(1/19)
US intelligence assessed that the war in Ukraine has devastated the pre-war Russian military, although Russia has partially offset these losses and continues to prepare for a long war in Ukraine. 🧵(1/5)
For defence-industrial policy wonks. ASD Doug Bush on US monthly production of 155mm shells.
- Feb 2022: 14k
- today: 28k
- Q1 2024: 36k
- Q3 2024: 60k
- early 2025: 70k-80k
If Congress approves 155mm supplemental of $3.1bn (part of Biden’s $106bn request)
- late 2025: 100k
Israel invades Gaza. The Myanmar junta collapses across northern Shan state. The RSF goes on a rampage across Darfur and Kordofan. Eastern Syria is ready to explode. Tuareg rebels take more ground in northern Mali, and now the GNU & LNA are moving in Libya.
Crazy times.