US Poll Watch

Nonpartisan tracking of USA polls & political-related news. Daily updates. Pollsters must have at least a B/C rating by Nate Silver & be nonpartisan. Check bio.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

Big news! This account now has a website where you can find all of the data and methodology. It also has more in-depth data than is posted here. For always up to date info & in-house analysis articles, check it out! Link is also in bio. https://t.co/srshpd18Ya

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

NEWS: U.S. House passes Iran War Powers Resolution, 215-208.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

That'll do it for tonight! California counting will likely take a while.
Here's who's on deck for primaries: Next Tuesday (June 9th) I'll be covering Maine, Nevada, North Carolina, and South Carolina's elections.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - 🟪 CA GOVERNOR PRIMARY

The last race of the night I've not yet called, Hilton/Becerra have commanding leads over all others. I'm leaning towards them, but we'll have to wait a while for the mail-ins and Election Day votes to be counted.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - RACE CALL

Toby Doeden and Larry Rhoden will advance to a runoff primary election for South Dakota governor, as neither will reach 35% of the vote. The runoff will be on July 28.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - 🟥 SOUTH DAKOTA GOVERNOR PRIMARY

Toby Doeden will advance to the runoff; it's between SD House Speaker Larry Rhoden and Rep. Dusty Johnson on who will join him. The count is inching forwards, I'm leaning strongly towards Doeden/Rhoden for now.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - 🟪 CA GOVERNOR PRIMARY

Hilton takes back the lead, Becerra close behind. I'm making a strong prediction for Hilton/Becerra in the general election, but I'd like to see more Bay Area and SoCal votes come in before making an official call.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - RACE CALL

Alani Bankhead wins the Democratic nomination for Montana senator.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

Interesting note: This is the first failure of Donald Trump's complete power of his endorsements; he had endorsed Randy Feenstra, who lost. This is the only loss of a Trump-endorsed candidate for a statewide office so far this cycle.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - RACE CALL

Zach Lahn wins the Republican nomination for Iowa governor.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - 🟪 CA GOVERNOR PRIMARY

Becerra takes the first place spot, with Hilton close behind. I'm leaning towards those two making the cut for the general election. We'll have to wait for more votes to come in, but some major shifts would need to happen to change that.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - RACE CALL

Zach Lahn wins the Republican nomination for Iowa governor.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - 🟪 CA GOVERNOR PRIMARY

Commentator Steve Hilton (Republican) has the most votes so far, but Democrats have a nearly 60/40 split versus the GOP. The top two I'm leaning towards being Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra, who will go onto the general. No call yet.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - RACE CALL

Justin Murphy wins the Republican nomination for New Jersey senator.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - CALIFORNIA PRIMARY NOTE

It could take days for all votes to be counted. California uses a jungle primary, meaning all candidates for all parties run together. If there's obvious winners, I'll make a call tonight. Otherwise, be prepared for a long count.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - 🟥 IA GOVERNOR PRIMARY

Coming down to the wire here...it's too close to call, and too close for me to even make a reasonable prediction. It's going to come down to the Scott County, Iowa vote drop.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - RACE CALL

Gregg Hull wins the Republican nomination for New Mexico governor.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - 🟥 SOUTH DAKOTA GOVERNOR PRIMARY

Businessman Toby Doeden leads both the incumbent governor Rhoden and the state's House speaker, Johnson. I'm giving him a slight edge in my prediction, but again, plenty of votes yet to be counted in South Dakota.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - 🟦 MONTANA SENATE PRIMARY

Polling-frontrunner Reilly Neill trails Alani Bankhead by a large margin. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar is running in November, and it will come down to whoever the Dem. nominee is on whether to run or drop out to boost Bodnar.

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#Election2026 - 🟥 IOWA GOVERNOR PRIMARY

The Trump-endorsed candidate Randy Feenstra is struggling against grassroots candidate Zach Lahn. Trump, for this cycle, has a near-perfect track record with endorsements, and this is looking to be a real contender for breaking that streak.