Andrew Pogue

Ex-Consulting, PE Ops & Search fund owner / operator. Currently searching global public markets for alpha.

Not investment advice.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

After a couple months of building content, I'm officially launching Underlying Value.

The mission: find the most undervalued publicly traded investments around the world.

Get to understand my process and a preview of the exciting investment opportunities to come: https://t.co/73GTCYoJSb

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

https://t.co/13qTYAiFZA

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

Aimia (TSX: $AIM.TO ) sub is now live.

During their AGM they shared a slide entitled 'Sample target investments.' Who might these targets be? I did my best to follow the trail and ended up investing in two of them.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

New writeup is out tomorrow: Aimia (TSX: AIM).

A permanent capital vehicle trading below book with ~C$267M of fresh cash to deploy and over C$1B of tax losses sitting off balance sheet.

Run by Rhys Summerton (45%/yr at Milkwood). If he runs his playbook, they'll target cheap, cash-rich businesses in fragmented markets, built into serial-acquirer platforms.

I reverse-engineered the ones they could be hunting.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

New writeup is out tomorrow: Aimia (TSX: AIM).

A permanent capital vehicle trading below book with ~C$267M of fresh cash to deploy and over C$1B of tax losses sitting off balance sheet.

Run by Rhys Summerton (45%/yr at Milkwood). If he runs his playbook, they'll target cheap, cash-rich businesses in fragmented markets, built into serial-acquirer platforms.

I reverse-engineered the ones they could be hunting.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

Over the next week, I will be releasing an article on AIMIA ($AIM.TO).

They are a company undergoing a transformation as Rhys Summerton's permanent capital vehicle. Rhys is an incredible allocator few know or follow.

Lots to be excited about. More soon.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

Hydreight ( $NURS.V ) Q1 earnings report will be one to watch after the bell.

It has guided to revenue of C$25M-C$28M for the quarter. C$25M implies growth of 67% QoQ and 450% YoY. This should be profitable growth, with operating income scaling ~20% on incremental sales due to relatively flat OpEx.

Victory Square Technologies trades at a significant discount to their ownership interest and has a 10% profit royalty on the VSDHOne product - where the explosive growth is being generated.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

Illumina ( $ILMN ) is one of the few large cap companies still in my portfolio. They are the gene sequencing market share leader (~90% of clinical) - enabling tools that are essential for preventatively addressing longevity.

The operational turnaround by the new management regime has been incredible. It's a case where a great horse found the right jockeys.
> Operating income went from -$222M in '22 to $862M in the TTM
> Now that they've returned to growth, they're able to further flex their operating leverage.
> After a Q1 beat, guidance is for revenue of $4.52-$4.62B and EPS of $5.15-$5.30.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

It feels like a good opportunity to add to my oil exposure.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

@ToffCap I have a small position. Do you think the non DIS business has any defensibility / value? Fundamentals have been decimated.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

There is no margin of safety for terrible management.

You can still wreck a Ferrari.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

Slowly and methodically building a position in a sub $50M MC stock you think no one else is looking at until some wrecking ball comes out of left field.

I need to get in a better time zone for where I'm purchasing shares.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

@HiddenGemsInves $BQE.V would be on that list

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

I think this is a good entry opportunity.

It's so hard to find small-cap mining management that let's you sleep well at night, not pay a premium and have reasonable geopolitical risk.

[IFCM MicroCap @IntelligentCM]

$GG.V $GGGOF reports results in USD

✔️ $GGGOF $1.68 per share ($120m EV)
✔️$0.07 diluted earnings in Q1
✔️Stock buyback likely soon
✔️Shareholders also get Q1 2027 spinoff of Summit USA likely worth 2x current market cap

Disc: Long and wrong a lot

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

"Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" by Ray Dalio is outstanding. Rarely do I read a book cover to cover for a second time, but this is an exception.

Dalio goes back over thousands of years to detail how history has rhymed. Very refreshing when people quip how living through the GFC shaped them. Our perspectives are short-sighted and reflect the privileged era our lives have spanned relative to previous generations.

I reread and found this passage especially enlightening re: the reserve currency status of the dollar. As I’ve stated, being the reserve currency is a honor and privilege that is bound by trust. If you do not respect the vaulted position you have been given, the value of your currency is not worth the paper on which it’s printed.

https://t.co/6dlVb8l0ln

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

Close the Loop (https://t.co/ppSUnyFBK0) is a recycling company. Primarily printer cartridges, IT products and packaging. They're in the midst of a turnaround and had a bullish release that included a significant debt restructure and non-core asset disposal (they bought the disposed unit for almost A$100M and now sold it for A$10M in under three years).

The net? Converted some debt into shares at prices ~6x+ where they currently trade and announced they should be able to re-fi a portion at significantly lower rates (saving up to 400 bps). In their last report, net debt was A$56M and current MC is A$17.5M. They guided to '27 FY EBITDA of A$14-$16M on a fiscal 7/1 start.

I expect cash conversion of the EBITDA to be strong on the back of the lower interest and 'sweating the assets.' I like recycling plays in an environment w/ significant commodity inflation.

Note: I did a site visit to their KY facility late last year.

DYODD, this one is hairy.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

Avi-Tech ( $1R6.SI ) Primarily burn-in products/services for semiconductors (design, build and test). Strategic came in and took 29.9% of shares. Chairman and CEO since 1984 stepped down. Purchaser took their interest at S$.33 vs current S$.28 trading price.

S$38M in cash on a S$48M market cap. Turnaround situation, let's see what they can do.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

Community bank recipients of ECIP funds got a massive windfall in 2022. Cheap, indefinite preferred shares carrying just 0-2% dividends. In late 2024, Treasury published a Disposition Policy allowing recipients to repurchase their preferred at roughly 20-28% of face value (or as low as 0.5% via a "Mission Aligned Nonprofit Affiliate" if they're CDFI-certified).

Per Treasury's October 2025 update, dispositions are scheduled to begin in late summer 2026, once the first wave of recipients hits the 16-quarter Deep Impact Lending threshold ending Q2 2026. The Trump Treasury has confirmed the framework and is providing operational guidance, but is not taking new Option Agreement signatures.

For several of these banks, the resulting equity accretion is a multiple of current market cap (chart below). Be careful: bank quality varies enormously, timelines diverge by threshold path (Deep Impact vs Qualified Lending vs rate-reduction), and Treasury retains sole discretion over threshold determinations.

The cleanest setups: small-cap banks that (a) signed Option Agreements in late 2024 / early 2025, (b) are tracking toward Deep Impact threshold by Q2 2026, and (c) trade well below post-redemption tangible book value (d) have consistently demonstrated themselves to be profitable stewards of capital.

Once they are no longer impacted by Deep Impact thresholds, I suspect several recipients will be able to ramp up loan growth.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

Post Q1 earnings, I have this investment trading under 2x EV/EBITDA. With a huge amount of off balance sheet tax losses, everything points to being a prime RTO candidate.
As an oil servicer, their inflection to profitability was achieved before the rise in prices and should be further enhanced in this environment.
Disc: Small and illiquid.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

Q1 results add more color and beat my expectations:
-- Annualizing Q1 profit run rate: EV/NI sub 4x
-- Look through quarterly earnings: up over 40%
-- Tangible BV: now under .5x
-- Large off balance sheet assets will hopefully be leveraged for shareholder value

Expect some future quarter to quarter choppiness, but I love the industry tailwinds and positive management comments.

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

Oil producers are more inexpensive now than when the Iranian War began. While the spot price has not changed too much, futures have significantly increased the floor.

I've changed my oil producer mix a bit since the war began. Currently I'm invested in Pharos (core position), Sandridge, Hemisphere and Strathcona.

These are investments with strong balance sheets that should generate strong FCF yields relative to their enterprise value. Furthermore, they reward shareholders with dividends. I exited Maurel et Prom - the easy money was made and the future value is very dependent on Venezuela, which is hard to handicap. Is the US admin going to favor a French/Indonesian company versus American?

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

I've made a bet over the past week that the oil dislocation we've seen will be more systemic and far reaching than what is priced in certain equities.

Does the Strait of Hormuz open tomorrow to allow the free passage of 20mbbls+ a day? Maybe. However, there are longer-term facets that will take time to work out and should provide a structural floor. Significant supply is offline, critical infrastructure damaged and downstream supply gluts are severe.

I'm playing this expectation through investments in Canadian oil companies that have:
- High FCF yields at much lower oil prices
- Low decline rates
- Stable/growing production
- Strong capital allocation
- Low gearing
- High quality infrastructure

Click through to the blog to see the three investments I made in the past week (free).

[Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue]

Who are the best guys/gals who have most of their money in investments sub $100M market cap?