Underlying · FPL expected points

An expected-points model for every Premier League player, every gameweek. Published before the deadline. Scored after it. No tips -just the numbers underneath.

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

One week isn't a verdict. But this one wasn't close.
Underlying XI 75, FPL Scout 48.
Same four-man spine, same captain. The seven calls that differed went 54–27 for the numbers.
How many of ours were in your side?

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

The £100m XI the model builds for GW8 when you let it off the leash.
Three at the back. No premium mid. Every spare pound on the armband.
59.5 projected points. One week of nerve.
How many do you own?

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

Four mids under £7m for GW8:
Odegaard — ceiling (4.46 xP, 9% haul)
Tavernier — underlying (0.45 xG+xA/90)
Barnes — floor (87 nailed mins)
Neto — leverage (2.3% owned)
Same 10 metrics, side by side. Not picking one for you. The angle you value decides the answer. Who do you pick?

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

GW8 diffs, under 15% owned.
Igor Thiago (8.8%): 3.69 xG, 1 goal. Chances are coming. 4.85 xP vs HUL.
Rest: Havertz (6.2%), Rice (11.1%), Barnes (7.8%), Neto (2.3%), Mukiele (1.8%).
4/6 face above-average concessions. None over £7.8. Loud on the numbers.

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

Our XI vs FPL Scout XI · GW7
Underlying 63 — 64 Scout
Same 6-man spine, same captain (Haaland 26 each).
Gap = the 5 differentials. Scout 18, us 17. Tavernier (10) the swing.
One week isn't a verdict. We'll take a coin-flip loss on the differentials every week.

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

GW7 scored, comparison tightened.
Rated 3.5+ (60): 37% hit 6+
Other starters (145): 22%
Our cold list, <2.0 (120): 9%
15 pts clear up top. 4× the cold list.
Semenyo, Bruno, Guéhi blanked. Tavernier (10), Vuskovic (11), Kostoulas (12) hauled.

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

Underlying's Best XI — Gameweek 7, and this one fits the budget.
GK Verbruggen
DEF Gabriel, Van Hecke, De Cuyper, Calafiori
MID Groß, Cherki, Semenyo, Saka, Sávio
FWD Haaland (C)
£99.1m · 4-5-1 · 67.0 projected. How many do you own?

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

@fantopy Yeah. A bad result isn't a reason to trust the model harder or bin it. It's a reason to check the underlying. Chances created, not points scored, is what tells you whether it was process or just luck.

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

How often is the model right? GW6, marked.
6+ pts = a return:
🟢 Rated 4.0+ → 47%
⚪ Avg starter → 22%
🔴 Rated <2.0 → 3%
Our top tier returns at 2x the field. Bruno & Saka still blanked — the list isn't a promise, but the tier is an edge.
#FPL

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

6 games in, the biggest gaps between goals and xG.
OVER: Cherki +2.70, João Pedro +2.23, Belloumi +2.11
UNDER: Thiago −2.20, Gonzalo −2.00, Wissa −1.50
A gap alone won't tell you if it holds. Each player's finishing vs his own career rate >> in the slides.
#PL #PremierLeague

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

We ran the model's GW6 XI against the official Scout picks.
Underlying 57 — 38 FPL Scout
Same 5-man spine. Both captains blanked. The gap was the 6 differing calls: ours 35, theirs 14.
One week ≠ a verdict. But the numbers won it.
#FPL

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

Underlying's Best XI — GW6 🔵

3-5-2 · 64.0 team xP

GK. Pickford
DEF. Calafiori Gabriel Tarkowski
MID. Palmer Cunha Bruno(C) Mbeumo Saka
ST. Haaland Thiago

How many do you own? 👇
⏳ Locks 10:00 UTC
#FPL #GW6

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

GW6 captain, by the model:

🥇 Bruno — 6.95 xP (soft TOT tie + pens, cold form)

🥈 Saka — 5.85 xP (home to Leeds, 17% owned diff)

🥉 Haaland — 5.76 xP (best xG + form, but Anfield away)

Fixture, form or safety — your call 👇
⏳ Locks 10:00 UTC
#FPL #FPLCaptain #GW6

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

Three of the top five projected midfielders for the next six are Man United players.
01 Bruno £11.9 — 38.9
03 Mbeumo £7.9 — 30.9
05 Cunha £7.9 — 26.7
And that run is Spurs, Leeds, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Villa, Liverpool.
Cunha is 5.8% owned.

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

Ten defensive actions in a match pays two points. Twelve if you are a midfielder.
19 players at £5.5 or less clear it in half their starts or better.
Affengruber £4.5, 0.2% owned — 2 of 2
Janelt £5.0 — 3 of 5
Ampadu £5.4 — 3 of 5
Almost nobody owns them.

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

Fulham's next three: Ipswich (A), Hull (H), Coventry (A).
1.55 xG a game at one end.
31% clean sheet chance at the other.
Castagne £4.5 → 11.1 xP
King £5.6 → 11.6 xP
£1.1 more for half a point.
Which end do you buy?

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

98,000 managers sold Mbeumo this week. 102,000 bought Rogers.
Same position. £0.2 apart.
Mbeumo — 5.56 this gameweek, 31.1 over six.
Rogers — 4.73 and 24.4, at double the ownership.
Five of Mbeumo's next six project above Rogers' best week of the six.
Which one have you got?

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

211,860 managers sold Bruno Fernandes this week.
He is the highest projected player in the game - 6.96 this gameweek, 38.6 over the next six. First on both.
No flag. All six fixtures above average.
His worst projected week of the six is 5.70.
Selling, holding or captaining?

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

Eight players under 10% owned, ranked on the next six gameweeks.
Havertz 27.5 at 8.3% owned. Cunha, Wirtz and Barnes all under 6%.
Middle column is this gameweek, right is the window.
Every doubt priced as a fit starter.
Who are you backing?
#FPL

[Underlying · FPL expected points @Underlying_fpl]

Same price bracket. One is owned by twice as many managers.
Saka — 6.41 xP this gameweek, 36.9 over six. Blanks 24%.
Palmer — 5.68 and 27.3. Blanks 36%.
Palmer's doubt is ignored here, priced as a fit starter.
Which one are you taking?
#FPL