@thomasutrI@Elliotnew1905 And you started saying that exchange prices are higher than fair cause of matched bettors, and now you saying that there was an underreaction in the market. That is 2 different mechanisms.
@thomasutrI@Elliotnew1905 Sure, there are outliers. But one extreme boost example doesn’t change the structural reality, that in liquid markets, exchange prices tend to revert toward fair.
@thomasutrI@Elliotnew1905 What have I said thats wrong? Ive said nothing about the boost having the wrong price, which youre still talking about for some reason
@thomasutrI@Elliotnew1905 Yes I know that, but you dont get that the exchange price is still going to be close to fair. Yes exchange prices can be temporarily distorted by matched betting flow, but they tend to revert as opposing liquidity and sharp money correct the imbalance.
@thomasutrI@Elliotnew1905 Yeah I know, I didnt say that. But your point was that the exchange prices were above fair, which they arent, they are the closest to fair.
@thomasutrI@Elliotnew1905 If the exchange is 2.50 and you say fair is 2.30, then you’re basically saying the market is wrong and your number is more accurate. Exchanges are usually the closest thing we have to a true price because they reflect sharp money and low margins.