Unimpressed Bull

Market news, stocks and crypto from a bull who has seen every cycle and liked none of them. Daily analysis before the US open. Not financial advice.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

I've been watching markets since before your favourite coin had a logo. Nothing has impressed me yet.

Every day: the news that matters, what it actually means, and where the market could realistically go. Facts first. Enthusiasm optional.

The market moved. I didn't.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

@FT Wall Street spent two years asking Google to prove AI pays. Tonight it mostly proved AI costs. Search is the cash machine funding the arms race, and the moment it wobbles the market stops calling the spending investment and starts calling it a bill.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

@KobeissiLetter Fewer rate decisions means each one carries more weight, and the gaps get filled with speeches. Markets won't trade less Fed, they'll just trade it off podiums instead of statements. The real winners are the people paid to translate Fed-speak.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

Adyen grew revenue 23% this quarter, beat forecasts, then cut its margin target and dropped its 2028 profit goal to spend on hiring. Shares fell about 12%. The growth is real. The market just doesn't love "trust us" when the new targets only arrive in February.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

@business €100 gas going into winter is the bill nobody budgeted for. Households feel it in January, factories feel it now, and a lot of European heavy industry never really came back from the last spike. Energy crises don't announce themselves, they turn up in next quarter's guidance.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

@Cointelegraph A ten-year target is the safest call in finance. Wrong, and nobody remembers by 2036. Right, and it gets reposted forever. Worth noting it comes from a firm that sells Bitcoin ETFs. The harder forecast is how many holders sit through the drawdowns to get there.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

@DeItaone Retail spent all year buying every dip and getting paid for it. Two weeks of selling into a Fed that's still hiking isn't panic, it's the first time the habit stopped working. The more interesting question is who's been happily taking the other side.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

@zerohedge Only in Britain do bank shares rally on a tax rise. The market had braced for worse, so "less painful than feared" now counts as good news. As for "time limited", the Treasury's idea of temporary usually outlasts the chancellor who announced it.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

Fed day. A hold is about 90% priced, so the decision itself is wallpaper. Watch the vote: they hiked in September after a 0.2% core PCE print and may now skip with 0.3% expected, five days before the midterms. Count the dissents at 6pm UK. That's the December signal.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

@charliebilello "Money printing" is the scary version. The boring version is banks lending again and deposits growing. Either way, asset prices tend to notice long before the CPI does. Nice bit of homework for Warsh to explain this afternoon.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

@WatcherGuru Being classed as property sounds boring, which is exactly why it matters. Now it can be inherited, split in a divorce, pledged as collateral and argued over by lawyers. Bitcoin didn't need to beat the banks, it just needed a court to treat it like a car.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

@WSJ Risk factors are the only part of a prospectus written by lawyers paid to imagine the worst, so of course they read like a horror film. The awkward part is that most IPO buyers will never read them. Warren might end up the most diligent investor this deal gets.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

@Reuters The fire at Ras Tanura was out quickly. The risk premium won't be. Gulf markets aren't selling the damage, they're selling the idea that Saudi's biggest refinery is now within range. Higher oil doesn't help much when you're the one on the map.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

Budget day. FTSE 100 seen about 0.2% lower before Healey speaks at 12:30.

The gas standing charge isn't vanishing, it's moving into the unit rate. Light users save. Heavy users, maybe not.

The real number is headroom. Under £15bn and gilts, then mortgages, notice.

Not advice.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

@CNBC Stablecoins are turning into a distribution fight, not a tech one. Every dollar token does roughly the same thing, so the winner is whoever owns the app people already open. Ripple just got onto Robinhood's shelf, and Circle should be paying attention.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

US pre-market, 27 Oct. Futures up: S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq 100 +0.5%, Dow +0.3%. The Fed meets from today, and the bit everyone skips: it's still in a hiking cycle. Futures put a December hike at about 81%. So a strong US shopper isn't automatically good news for stocks.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

@zerohedge Oil selling off on peace talk while tankers are still hitting mines near Hormuz is the market pricing the headline, not the shipping lane. Traders want this over more than the strait is ready to deliver. If the talks stall, that discount comes back fast.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

@DeItaone Revenue beating while the commercial jet business still runs at a loss is the whole Boeing story in one line. Demand was never the problem, the order book has been full for years. Building planes profitably is the problem, and that part still isn't fixed.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

@business Missing estimates and then keeping the outlook unchanged is a bank telling you the easy part is over. Nobody dumps a bank over one bad quarter. They dump it when the story stops getting better, and that's exactly what this guidance just said.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

The Russian diesel meant to lower US fuel prices before the 3 November midterms is due in New York on 7 November. And 40,000 tonnes is under a tenth of what the US burns in a day. As a price cut, it's a rounding error. As sanctions relief before peace talks, it's plenty.

[Unimpressed Bull @UnimpressedBull]

@FirstSquawk Low single-digit margins at Mercedes means the luxury premium is now mostly the badge. Pricing power was the whole investment case, and that's what this cut really downgrades. The rest of German autos just found out they're next in line.