Union Ave Figs

Ragozin-based model. Fair odds before post, every result after — including the ugly ones. Posting from Union Ave

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

🏇 SAR 7/17

Running a Ragozin-based
model through the Saratoga meet. Picks
before post, all results after, losses included.

Model is still unvalidated as of now. Trying to be as transparent as possible throughout this process.

Model races: R3, R5, R6, R7, R8, R9

🧵

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

ANOTHA ONE!!!

2nd top pick winner of the day, this time Salming closes at 7/2 and wins by open lengths in a deep, 10 horse field.

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

SAR R5 — Clm 20k N2L, 1 1/8M

Model line:
#1 Salming — 4-1 (ML 5-1)
#11 Tedder — 6-1 (ML 9/2)
#10 Swaging — 6-1 (ML 7/2)

▶️ PASS — play triggers at 5-1+ on #1

Board's close on our top pick.
One drift away from a bet.

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

BANG!!

Model picks up a cold exacta and we keep on rolling.

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

SAR R3 — 1 Mile OC 55k/N1X

Model line:
#6 My Gun’s Loaded — 4/5 (ML 4/5)
#5 Kristy’s Star— 8/1 (ML 12/1)
#9 Soundbite— 9/1 (ML 10/1)

▶️ #5 to WIN if 9/1+ at post

A forward-looking cycle for Krissy’s Star. Will use as second choice in the exacta.

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

SAR R5 — Clm 20k N2L, 1 1/8M

Model line:
#1 Salming — 4-1 (ML 5-1)
#11 Tedder — 6-1 (ML 9/2)
#10 Swaging — 6-1 (ML 7/2)

▶️ PASS — play triggers at 5-1+ on #1

Board's close on our top pick.
One drift away from a bet.

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

Everyone has a Shuvee pick.

Mine comes from a Ragozin model I built myself. Fair odds posted before the gate — fade it or ride with it.

It's passed entire cards this meet. No value = no bet, G2 or not.

Today: Shuvee, Violette, R3-5, 7.

Drop your pick. Beat the model.

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

SAR R4 — 1 mile Clm 20k

Model line:
#7 Rungius — 3-1 (ML 7/2)
#8 Neon Bordeaux — 7/2 (ML 9/2)
#4 Awesome Empire — 6/1 (ML 5-1)

▶️ PASS — nothing clears our price

Tight race, fairly priced. We sit.

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

@elio82 Shuvee/Violette double

Shuvee: #2 Aeolian, #7 Valtellina
Violette: #3 Newlyn, #4 Manor Park

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

@keenelandlefty Glen Airy scratched

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

#1 Ridgewood Runner gets the win at 9/5. We did not play anything this race.

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

SAR R3
7F Claiming62500
Scratch #3

Model line: #8 Twenty Four Mamba 3-1, #1 Ridgewood Runner 4-1, #4 Two Eagles River 4-1

▶️ NO PLAY-Nothing clears our prices as of now, may change with updated tote. Will revisit.

Model top 4: 8-1-4-2

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

SAR R9
The De La Rose, 1M Inner Turf
Scratch #1, #6

Model line: #4 Sandtrap 5-1, #3 And One More Time 5-1, #7 Proctor Street 5-1

▶️ NO PLAY-Nothing clears our prices as of now, may change with updated tote. Will revisit

Model top 4: 4-3-7-9

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

🏇 SAR 7/17

Running a Ragozin-based
model through the Saratoga meet. Picks
before post, all results after, losses included.

Model is still unvalidated as of now. Trying to be as transparent as possible throughout this process.

Model races: R3, R5, R6, R7, R8, R9

🧵

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

SAR R8
Claiming 40000, 1 1/16M Mellon Turf
Scratch #2, #4

Model line: #10 Ocean Atlantique 3-1, #3 Belouni 4-1, #7 Santorini 7-1

▶️ WIN: #3 Belouni at 4-1+
▶️ WIN: #10 Ocean Atlantique at 3-1+
▶️ WIN: #5 Heathguard at 9-1+

Model top 4: 10-3-7-5

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

#6 Max Money takes it at 3-1 with model and betting favorite #7 Palacios in 3rd and #1 Into the Light in 2nd

All in all, 3 winners within the models top 4 in each race. Money isn’t there to show for it but I’d say an okay day overall.

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

SAR R8
$75k Str. OC
1 mile, Dirt
Scratch #8

Model line: #7 Palacios 3-1, #3 Life is Gravy 9-2, #6 Max Money 7-1

▶️ #3 Life is Gravy at 9-2+

Model top 4: 7-3-6-1

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

#2 English Law wins it at 2-1.

#6 Vintage Vino was a no play at 5/2. Sprinkled on #3 Bold Love at 17-1.

Poor result but this is the exact process we’re looking for. Can’t be upset when the favorite beats you at a worse price than you’re looking for.

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

SAR R7
$35k Claiming
1 1/16 Miles, Inner Turf
Scratch #1

Model line: #6 Vintage Vino 3-1, #7 Ciro di Marzio 6-1, #2 English Law 6-1

▶️
#6 Vintage Vino if 4-1+ at post
#3 Bold Love if 9-1+ at post

Model top 4: 6-7-2-3

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

#4 Kunshan Bridge 12-1 winner, models 4th choice. Did not play this one

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

SAR R3
7F Starter OC
Scratch #1 and #8

Model line: #6 Lucky Dude 4-1 Fair, #5 Tizmarkus 4-1 Fair, #9 Princip 7-1 fair

▶️ NO PLAY-Nothing clears our prices as of now, may change with updated tote. Will revisit.

Model top 4: 6-5-9-4

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

SAR R8
$75k Str. OC
1 mile, Dirt
Scratch #8

Model line: #7 Palacios 3-1, #3 Life is Gravy 9-2, #6 Max Money 7-1

▶️ #3 Life is Gravy at 9-2+

Model top 4: 7-3-6-1

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

🏇 SAR 7/16

Running a Ragozin-based
model through the Saratoga meet. Picks
before post, all results after, losses included.

Model is still unvalidated as of now. Trying to be as transparent as possible throughout this process.

Model races: R3, R7, R8

🧵

[Union Ave Figs @UnionAveFigs]

SAR R7
$35k Claiming
1 1/16 Miles, Inner Turf
Scratch #1

Model line: #6 Vintage Vino 3-1, #7 Ciro di Marzio 6-1, #2 English Law 6-1

▶️
#6 Vintage Vino if 4-1+ at post
#3 Bold Love if 9-1+ at post

Model top 4: 6-7-2-3