John Peters

Assistant Professor of Meteorology, Penn State
Certified Consulting Meteorologist (CCM)
expertise in cloud and storm dynamics

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

For those of you interested in using ECAPE, a link to a preprint of the paper we submitted is available here:
https://t.co/yod4IMdGxG
And a matlab script that computes this quantity is available here:
https://t.co/ga7RGLjTOM

[Cameron Nixon @CameronJNixon]

Entrainment CAPE (ECAPE) is the next big thing in severe wx forecasting, imho. Brilliant work in progress by @UpdraftwMax to take a simple sounding and estimate updraft velocity with incredible accuracy. Big deal for tornado, hail potential etc.

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

@Rhapsodyinbrown @PSU_RadarMeteo Fantastic talk yesterday @Rhapsodyinbrown

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

@AnthonyC_H I think the potential caveat is, there is no guarantee that KE is conserved along these parcels entering from aloft (we have some evidence that it is for parcels that enter from low-levels)

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

@AnthonyC_H The way to do this is probably to use some sort of entraining plume model, where the KE from the air coming in from different levels is entrained.

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

@AnthonyC_H In short, ECAPE includes the kinetic energy of inflow.

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

@AnthonyC_H Check out section 4f in this paper:
https://t.co/ElILtjDsbJ

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

Sups finding the Bermuda triangle off the eastern FL coast

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

@DrKimWood I would argue that a tropical cyclone that both expands its wind field and does not weaken fast enough can WORSTEN impacts...

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

@BMcNoldy We're now up to Final T at 7.2 and raw at 7.7... so *most likely*

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

Raw Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) numbers up to 7.6, suggesting ~ 910 mb and 145-150 kt sustained winds.
Source: https://t.co/FAhdwUfdiM

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

@Meteodan Based on flight-level winds from the last recon pass, it's probably already there...

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

Post ERC bomb-out commence...

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

sorry, 24 kt.

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

Dropsonde splashed down amid 161 kt winds (peaked at 188 kt on the way down)...

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

Also, eye dropsonde came down in ~26 kt of surface wind, supporting a central surface pressure a few mb below 899...

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

@spahn711 Can't tell if it's just a data frequency issue, but the flight level wind never bottomed out. They may have missed the lowest pressure.

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

@DrAaronHill

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

My meteorological consulting & forensic meteorology website is live! Need expert weather analysis for a legal case or insurance claim?

https://t.co/AAsokGVnzE

Know someone who could benefit? Please share!

#ForensicMeteorology #ExpertWitness #WeatherAnalysis #Consulting

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

@Meteodan @VORTEXJeff Stronger eastern eyewall suggests westerly shear?

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

Cuban weather radar is hinting at a developing ring of convection near the core - something that has been largely absent throughout the day

[John Peters @UpdraftwMax]

Cloud tops have warmed within #helene2024 's central dense overcast, but don't be fooled...