This guy built a Quant Fair Value model and it made $865 a day on Polymarket
The result is already +$53,658 PnL in 62 days with about $233 per average trade, repeating the same setup 9 times every hour across BTC and ETH "Up or Down" markets
The software converts market data into its own probability before every entry:
This trader’s Polymarket account:https://t.co/7dFcd0Xy5B
1. A logistic model calculates fair Up or Down probability
A simplified version can look like:
P(Up) = 1 / (1 + e^(-z))
Where z combines distance from reference, momentum, volatility and time remaining
For example:
Model Up = 68%
Market Up = 63¢
Edge = 5¢
The system enters only when its own probability is far enough from the market
2. Every new signal changes z and therefore the next order
If BTC keeps confirming Up, fair probability can move higher and the system adds
If momentum fades or volatility expands, the model can pull fair value back and stop the next entry
13,281 predictions with a 50% win rate
Most profitable trades:
$589 → $1,606 (+$1,017)
$568 → $1,566 (+$998)
$675 → $1,569 (+$894)
A similar Fair Value workflow can be coordinated with Grok Bot while external tools handle live data and execution
@Phantom2Phlyer@acnewsitics Bro, your Admiral needs his dick polished again, go put your mouth to its purpose bc that clearly isn't speaking. Who the fuck proudly puts "Admiral's Aide" in their bio? Lol. Just say, "I'm a servant and I'm proud.",
@ThisIsKyleR Let's be honest you both went out that day hoping to kill someone. He knew his target. He had his reasons. You just wanted to. You would've killed anyone you could get away with killing legally because you went to a protest with a gun. You're right, not the same. You're a coward.