VAM-X

A Japanese crypto trader. Reacting to Macroeconomics and Geopolitical Risks. I wish you good luck. Just enjoy the volatility.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Buckle up for the week of the year.

9 days ago, President Trump threatened to "stop trading" with all countries that the US has a trade deficit with if the Fed does not CUT rates.

On Wednesday, the Fed will release their September interest rate decision.

Currently, markets believe the Fed will HIKE rates on Wednesday.

In other words, the market now expects Fed Chair Warsh to make the exact opposite policy decision that President Trump wants, just 3 months after he was appointed.

If the market is correct and President Trump follows through on his threat, global trade is about to take a major turn.

This move would effectively cut off trade with ~50% of all US trading partners, including Mexico, China, Taiwan, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and India.

Turn on our post notifications at @KobeissiLetter to receive real time analysis as the week progresses.

[ロイター @ReutersJapan]

米オラクル会長、最大75億ドル相当の同社株売却計画を中止 https://t.co/1MF2M1EBw7 https://t.co/1MF2M1EBw7

[日本経済新聞 電子版（日経電子版） @nikkei]

国際決済網、ブロックチェーンで24時間送金　世界17行で試験運用
https://t.co/80D23F3rP7

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

It seems most people don't understand how severe the energy situation is right now in the Middle East.

As of Friday, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has officially been shut down after recent attacks, putting -4 million barrels of daily oil exports at risk.

Meanwhile, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is now at risk of being shut down, threatening up to -9 million barrels of daily oil supply.

All while the Strait of Hormuz is operating at ~20% of its pre-Iran War capacity, removing -15 million barrels of daily oil flows.

Combined, this represents nearly ~30 MILLION barrels per day of oil flows that are either offline or at risk.

Even after accounting for some overlap between these routes, the scale of the potential disruption is enormous relative to the ~100 million barrel per day global oil market.

This is one of the most severe energy supply situations in modern history.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

GULF–IRAN HORMUZ TALKS POSTPONED

A planned September 14 meeting in Oman between Iran and Gulf states on possible Strait of Hormuz arrangements has been postponed, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said Sunday.

No reason or replacement date was announced. The talks were one of the few active diplomatic channels aimed at reducing disruption around the critical oil chokepoint.

Why markets care: the delay removes a near-term de-escalation catalyst while crude supply risks remain elevated.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

POSTPONEMENT OF MEETING BETWEEN GULF COUNTRIES AND IRAN WAS A JOINT DECISION BY TEHRAN AND MUSCAT - IRANIAN MEDIA

[Sawako Yasuda/Street Insights @Street_Insights]

ホルムズ海峡巡るイランと湾岸諸国の会合は延期、オマーンが発表

👉そしてやってくるマンデー
https://t.co/x7HiRMiepT

[Meredith Lee Hill @meredithllee]

Speaker Mike Johnson today said Trump would, in fact, require congressional approval to fulfill the $5k dividend promise

He also gently suggested it would not be a physical check

And, he added “we have had zero time, of course, to process that, deliberate, discuss it.” (because Johnson and his team canceled the last two weeks of September votes)

https://t.co/4yGwvnfo4X

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TRUMP SAYS HE IS LIFTING TARFFS ON IRISH WHISKEY

[小菅 努 @kosuge_tsutomu]

フーシ派は、バブ・エル・マンデブ海峡に近いMokhaを制圧。さらに、軍事的に困難だといわれていた海峡内のPerim Islandも制圧。これでタンカーへの攻撃、拿捕が容易に。

タンカーが通っても、日本向け海上運賃価格は高騰。7月比で３倍くらい、最近のデータでは過去最高だとS&P。

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Shocking stat of the day:

~$7.0 trillion worth of T-Bills are currently outstanding, with ~$6.1 trillion maturing within the next year.

Including the remaining maturities, ~$7.5 trillion worth of marketable Treasury debt is maturing in 2026.

Another ~$4.0 trillion matures in 2027, followed by ~$3.5 trillion in 2028.

Meanwhile, if the Fed hikes rates by 75 basis points, annual interest costs on T-bills alone could rise by ~$50 billion, equivalent to 0.15% of GDP.

This comes as much of this debt would be refinanced at higher market rates than those at which it was originally issued.

The US is set to face a massive refinancing wave at higher borrowing costs.

[SAKANE @SakaneBTC]

ビットコイン、先物はLSRatioが高くOIも高い
【⚡️先物指標】

週足で確認すると現在のL/S Ratio (ポジション）の2.19は2026年初に近い。OpenInterest(COIN)も同様に2026年初に近い。

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The biggest issue with an AI "safety slowdown:"

What happens with China?

While there are legitimate concerns around the safety of AI and how quickly it is evolving, the AI race is global.

And, in today's ecosystem, falling even 6 months behind in the AI race is like falling decades behind in the pre-AI world.

If US AI giants agree to slow progress and focus on safety, there must be an international agreement in place as well.

And, even if there is an agreement in place, how do we regulate compliance?

We've said it before and we will say it again: AI is the biggest technological revolution in history.

This is an AI arms race that may be impossible to fully regulate.

[TheCoinMonitor.com @TheCoinMonitor_]

🐋 2.1M SOL ($214M) just shuffled between mystery wallets in 3 hours

SOL sitting at ~$102. Nine-figure whale traffic on a quiet Saturday.

Whales don't move that kind of money for nothing. Watch the flow.

[palpal @palpalNFT]

これ、Uniswap v4のHooksを使っていてかなり面白い。MeebCoの【Nightshads】というオンチェーンゲームで、Uniswap v4 Hooksをゲームロジックに組み込んでいる。

例えば、Hooksを使うと：
• 取引時に独自ルールを発動
• 売買手数料を動的に変更
• 売買の一部を自動バイバック
• ゲーム内イベントと取引を連動
• 予測市場やミーム市場に特殊ルールを付与
• LPやトークン保有者への独自報酬設計

みたいなことを、Uniswapの流動性基盤の上で作れる。

Nightshadesがやっているのは、Uniswap v4のHooksを使えば、DEXをただの交換所ではなく、ゲームや新しい市場設計の基盤にできるよってこと。

ただしかなり発想が大事で、
『単なるゲーム内の独自経済圏』止まりならこれまでのGameFiと変わらない。

それよりも大事なのは、
『Hooksを使わないと成立しないキラーアプリが出るか』であり、
そしてそれを作れるか、になってくると思う。

Hooksは将来性がかなりあるプロトコルなんじゃないかな。

アプリのバックエンドとしてインフラ化して広がれば、Uniswapは強力に成長する基盤になる。 $UNI

ちなみにこのゲームは、CryptoPunksの生みの親/会社が作ったMeebitsの新ゲームで、NFTのMintは9月14日にあるみたい。

[SAKANE @SakaneBTC]

今週は小売売げ高、そしてFOMCです。
【⚡️マクロ経済】

とにかくFOMCに注目です。
利上げ確率は86.5%まで上昇。

インフレ指標を見る限りここまでの確率となっていることに違和感はありますが、市場は利上げが確定的と見ています。

そして、利上げされた場合、1度の利上げで終わったケースは過去に1度しかありません。

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Key Events This Week:

1. US 20Y Bond Auction - Tuesday

2. August Retail Sales data - Wednesday

3. Fed Interest Rate Decision - Wednesday

4. September Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - Thursday

5. August Pending Home Sales data - Thursday

6. August Industrial Production data - Friday

It's officially the Fed week we've all been waiting for.

[りお @rio_builder]

結局、これが全てを語ってる

[VAM-X @VAMX95]

Uniswap is the crown.

[Wu Blockchain @WuBlockchain]

Uniswap Monthly Trading Volume Surpasses $70B, Exceeding the Next Three DEXs Combined

Uniswap said its protocol processed more than $70 billion in trading volume over the past month, exceeding the combined volume of the next three largest DEXs. The figures were sourced from DeFiLlama Research. Uniswap said the data reflects continued strong trading activity and its leading position in decentralized spot trading by liquidity and volume.

[Wu Blockchain @WuBlockchain]

Uniswap Monthly Trading Volume Surpasses $70B, Exceeding the Next Three DEXs Combined

Uniswap said its protocol processed more than $70 billion in trading volume over the past month, exceeding the combined volume of the next three largest DEXs. The figures were sourced from DeFiLlama Research. Uniswap said the data reflects continued strong trading activity and its leading position in decentralized spot trading by liquidity and volume.