ValueFinder

Sports Probability and Value Models

WORLD CUP MODEL - PGA Tour Model

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

26 WORLD CUP PREDICTIONS - MATCH 13
⚽️Predicted xG - Spain 3.53 vs 0.44 Cape Verde⚽️

Result - Spain 🇪🇸
OVER 2.5 Goals 🥅
BTTS No ❌

Not much value in this one, probably the most one-sided game you will see this World Cup data-wise.

I've gone for Spain > 2.5 Goals and Win-to-Nil.

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

@Aaron_Torres Both!

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

@WorldCupMedia 🇨🇦

1 or 2-0 we think!

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

The model selects Yes for BTTS at 50%, but I wouldn't be too confident in that here, despite Paraguay predicted xG at 1.02.

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

26 WORLD CUP PREDICTIONS - MATCH 4

⚽️ Predicted xG - USA 1.47 vs 1.02 Paraguay ⚽️

Result - USA 🇺🇸
UNDER 2.5 Goals 🥅
BTTS - 50/50!

Much like Canada's opening game, I think the hosts are a great selection for the acca's here. Can see 2-0 personally.

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

BTTS % is only 51% for this, so would be more confident in a Canada 1-0 or 2-0 tbh.

More at https://t.co/BYgyncPgcM

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

26 WORLD CUP PREDICTIONS - MATCH 3

⚽️Predicted xG - Canada 1.32 vs 1.12 Bosnia⚽️

Result - Canada 🇨🇦
UNDER 2.5 Goals 🥅
BTTS - Yes ✅

Canada probably the selection for the Accas, could double up with <2.5 goals too.

All Group Stage probabilities available at https://t.co/BKJwiW9AoT

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

5/6 predictions on Result, &gt;2.5 Goals and BTTS on the first two games!

https://t.co/BYgyncPgcM

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

ValueFinder World Cup launches today.

We simulated the World Cup 50,000 times to get each teams Win, Final, SF, QF % chance!

Also...

Predicted xG, Match Result, &gt;2.5 Goals %, BTTS % for EVERY game.

All available FOR FREE at https://t.co/BYgyncPgcM

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

Midweek Premier League!

Man City vs Crystal Palace

&lt;H2H High Scoring&gt;

- 86.8% chance of &gt; 2.5 Goals

- 77% chance BTTS

Looks like City will have to score at least twice to keep the pressure on Arsenal!

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

PGA Championship 2026 | Three Selections from the ValueFinder Model

https://t.co/5RyFThP0mt

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

Who are you on this week? Drop your PGA Championship picks below 👇

#PGAChampionship #GolfBetting #ValueBetting #Aronimink

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

The PGA Championship starts Thursday at Aronimink.
The model has run. 3 value flags.

@ValueFinderGolf — 93% positive CLV rate across 19 selections so far and a ROI of 156pts.

Here's what the model found 🧵

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

Full write-up on Substack — course breakdown, full CLV table, all three flags with the model reasoning.

https://t.co/5RyFThP0mt

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

PGA Championship | ValueFinder Golf Report coming very soon!

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

🚨ValueFinder Golf Update 🚨

The PGA Championship marks a huge milestone as we launch V2 of the Golf model!

Details below...

[ValueFinder @VFinderModel]

Rebuilt from the ground up:

True rolling 5-event SG from 126k rounds

Real closing odds on all selections

Improved weightings based on historical backtest

The players that the model selects have a 94.7% chance of shortening before teeing off.