Vipul Devluk

Climate and clean energy investor.
Here to learn and notice things.
Pursuing truth, beauty, and meaning. 🌳🖖🏽

[Ryan @eventidia]

Do you want to quibble about P/E ratios? Or do you want to fucking go to Mars?

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

wow - undervalued insight. More meetings may finally make sense...

[Bearly AI @bearlyai]

David Haber on how AI is a huge unlock for companies that have a verbal (vs. written) culture:

“The historical bottleneck for verbal cultures was that the important context happened in conversation and then evaporated. When AI can attend every meeting and synthesize what happened, verbal culture finally scales.“

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

@zebriez can you name it?

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

@xiaowang1984 @NiyerEnergy so no expansion ever?

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

solve for the equilbrium, as they say

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

This is it.

OpenAI is now considering drastic price cuts to win users from Anthropic, who will likely cut right back. Two companies losing billions, about to compete each other's margins to zero.

Buffett's worst kind of business: one that grows rapidly, devours capital, and earns nothing. He meant airlines. The most important industry of its age, where the customer wins and the shareholder bleeds.

Revolutionary technology and a good investment have never been the same thing.

The internet was real too. Most of the companies building it still went to zero.

[Xiao Wang @xiaowang1984]

Why would you add miles of transmission line without load growth? Some would call that gold plating. But now that datacenters are coming in these miles are increasing yet people aren't happy with that either.

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

@aniruddh_mohan Those who can, do; those who can't, tweet.

[Aniruddh Mohan @aniruddh_mohan]

Hyperscaler Energy/Dev Lead
- Drives pickup truck/SUV/American muscle
- Technical background
- Resume not updated since college
- Speaks to CEO once a week
- Lives in Texas or there once a month, grabs beer with ERCOT engineers
- Turns up at conference panel in a t-shirt, no prepared comments but knocks it out of the park
- Closed a $60B deal last week and then went to the ball game with family
- Inactive X account, no bio
- Did not know the company has a policy lead

Hyperscaler Policy/Sustainability Lead
- Drives a Toyota Prius or Tesla with a "I bought this before Elon went crazy" sticker
- Multiple Ivy League Degrees in the Humanities, straight As throughout
- Resume updated last week with new FERC citation of their work
- Retweets CEO on X, hoping to be followed back
- Turns up at conference panel in perfect suit, carefully prepared talking points
- Frequently quoted by Latitude Media, interviewed on very important energy podcasts
- Active X account with full length bio listing all their degrees/awards
- Unable to get a meeting with dev lead

Based on my personal experience, YMMV

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

@bubbleboi what if they have >5x the capital you do?

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

@wallstengine smaller players like ASE and Amkor likely benefit too

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

@EdLudlow The receivers also have to deploy, though.

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

@morganhousel @tylercowen https://t.co/hmzVPgtbep

[Alex Imas @alexolegimas]

This highlights a few under-appreciated aspects of AI and growth. 1) an increase from 2 to 2.5% growth has HUGE economic implications (and I think it’ll be higher). It may seem like a small number but given the size of an advanced economy like the US, this will lead to large and visible changes to well being. 2) disruptive technology shocks are *necessary* to sustain growth. Without disruptive shocks, growth doesn’t stay steady, there is sclerosis in the economy and it will stagnate and eventually shrink. Unlike what some folks like to argue, this would be a *very bad thing*—most of our social programs and public goods depend on sustained or increasing growth.

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

1. yep; fertility rate trends seem cyclical, not linear
2. yep; AI induced productivity will help bridge the gap
3. can't see this happening. Maybe AI again, though?

[Morgan Housel @morganhousel]

The hottest takes you could have right now:

1. there will be another baby boom
2. there will be balanced budgets
3. trust in politics/institutions will rise

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

@morganhousel re #2 "if our economy can grow two and a half percent instead of two percent, that debt, rather than exploding and making us the next Greece, that debt actually converges to a manageable level."

https://t.co/cHG8TIQ8aE (cc @tylercowen)

[Noam Dworman @noam_dworman]

Second for second, @tylercowen packs more substance into a talk than anyone I'm aware of. This is a clear, non-hysterical, and somewhat soothing discussion of our AI future.

[Alex Imas @alexolegimas]

This highlights a few under-appreciated aspects of AI and growth. 1) an increase from 2 to 2.5% growth has HUGE economic implications (and I think it’ll be higher). It may seem like a small number but given the size of an advanced economy like the US, this will lead to large and visible changes to well being. 2) disruptive technology shocks are *necessary* to sustain growth. Without disruptive shocks, growth doesn’t stay steady, there is sclerosis in the economy and it will stagnate and eventually shrink. Unlike what some folks like to argue, this would be a *very bad thing*—most of our social programs and public goods depend on sustained or increasing growth.

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

@itsolelehmann great use! What's the AI part of it?

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

@trengriffin what the sample set of each

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

@ChrisGillett Seems like google is doing this with Voltus https://t.co/lv1JidsHYR

[News from Google @NewsFromGoogle]

Today, Google and Voltus, a clean energy technology platform, announced a three-year agreement to transform up to 100 megawatts of smart, flexible grid assets each year into reliable electricity capacity in the PJM grid region, which spans the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions and serves 67 million people.

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

@ChrisGillett Yeah, I'm not 100% on net trade-off, though I've gathered the cost of curtailing 5% is way too high.

My point was whether the DC would be willing to pay another load in its zone to curtail. Seems ripe for a startup to offer this coordination service, though LSEs may be wary.

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

@AssaadRazzouk all LFP? parastic cooling load must be a monster...

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

i am always asking my friends if they know a guy

[BuccoCapital Bloke @buccocapital]

One thing nobody really tells you:

Once you get enough money, your quality of life is ultimately about establishing a good, reliable set of guys

- Tax guy
- Car guy
- Lawn guy
- Hair guy
- Handyman guy
- Estate/financial guy
- Health guys

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

@buccocapital better to have one or two guys that "know a guy"

[Vipul Devluk @VKDev1]

@gregisenberg not true. i'm going to revisit mine next week. 🤪