Very few people know about Phil Anderson's 18-year real estate cycle.
Credit to @paulsampson0x for putting me on to this.
Here's why I think real estate, stocks, AND bitcoin likely peak by 2027-2029 before the US goes into recession. 🧵
1/ The cycle is simple:
Bull runs typically top ~14 years after they start.
Real estate bottomed in 2012.
14 years = 2026.
But cycles rarely end exactly on cue. The range is 2026-2029.
2/ We're now in what Anderson calls the "Winner's Curse" — the final 2 years where animal spirits take over and everything goes parabolic.
AI stocks. Crypto. Real estate in select markets.
This IS the Winner's Curse playing out in real time.
3/ Two more data points that converge on the same window:
→ Markets historically peak 5-7 years after rates start rising (2022 hikes = 2027-2029 peak)
→ Skyscraper indicator: Real estate generally peaks shortly before many major skyscrapers are set to be completed. — The Waldorf Astoria Miami completes in early 2028, pointing to a mid-late 2027 real estate top.
4/ Bitcoin-specific tell:
BTC typically peaks about 3 years after it bottomed.
If that pattern holds, bitcoin's peak may come late 2027/early 2028 as well. Right in line with everything else.
5/ One wildcard that supports winner’s curse phase:
Kevin Warsh coming in as Fed chair may lead to some additional rate cuts this year and next year.
That historically gives real estate one final pump before the top — exactly what the Winner's Curse phase looks like.
6/ Am I selling my bitcoin right now? Hell no.
But if we're at significantly higher numbers a year from now, I'm definitely taking chips off the table.
Even Anderson himself has said bitcoin could hit $1M before this cycle ends.
7/ The play isn't to go all cash and try to time the exact top. That’s impossible.
It's macro allocation — rotating into what's most attractive at any given time.
I’ve made a 110% return in the last 12 months doing exactly this - allocating between crypto, spy, gold, XLE, etc.
8/ The goal isn't to predict the top perfectly or buy the exact bottom.
It's to be positioned so that when the music stops, you're holding assets that bleed less — and ready to rotate into generational deals when everyone else is panicking.
There's always a bull run somewhere. Find it.
@RealCryptoFace@DriftProtocol No Honor.
The world needs the times back when a man’s word, or in this case a manager or ceo’s word had weight and more importantly… trust.