I just staked YES on "Will Fermah's 'Privacy Made Practical: Introducing Confidential Proving Delegation' reach 100 views?" — 84% says crowd. Am I right? → https://t.co/rl7MNC89Wc
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day one of beta wave 1 - 15 Architects in. markets live. bets placed.
within the first few hours, conversations were already flowing better,
failed messages could be retried, and pagination issues that would have
quietly frustrated people were already gone.
we shipped, watched, and fixed - all in the same breath.
that's the pace we set on day one. and we kept it up all week.
day two is where the product really started showing its depth. more about that soon
the biggest flaw in this view of the world is the classic time input = results achieved
this is people thinking marriage draws them away from their dreams.
wrong, if you marry right
i am a perfect example. after marriage, my life got a million times more enriched with happiness and purpose that my feet had the bounciest spring for me to jump high. this is because my husband is at least as invested in my success as i am (and conversely).
in fact, he is the one who pushed me to start Fermah
ready to get a peek into the best-built prediction market's beta?
throughout the day I will post about how @flashcastsocial private beta wave 1 went
many learnings, many wins, many miles of progress
credit for owning it. and for not hiding behind "Ryan Gosling" on Polymarket.
this episode matters beyond one team's disclosure though. every incident like this will set the normative floor for prediction markets over the next decade.
here's my actual take: there will be no meaningful regulation of insider trading in prediction markets. jurisdictions are fragmented, legal definitions don't map cleanly, and the market is too small for regulators to burn political capital on. don't hold your breath for a Polymarket SEC equivalent.
what will emerge instead is reputation-based calibration. the community collectively pricing your credibility based on how you behave in moments of information asymmetry. that's a more powerful enforcement mechanism than any regulator anyway.
the core tension is genuinely hard though. when you can influence an outcome you've bet on, the line between conviction and manipulation gets blurry fast. one verbal commitment from Multicoin isn't a done deal, but it's not 50/50 uncertainty either. reasonable people will disagree on where exactly that line sits, and that ambiguity is precisely why informal norms matter more than rules here.
prediction markets will resolve this the same way early equity markets did, not through law, but through reputational feedback loops that eventually calcify into norms. P2P Team just became a case study in what that process looks like in real time. how they're received over the next few months will say a lot about how mature this ecosystem actually is.
Today, I’m beyond hyped to announce that Patricio Napoli (@zkPavi) is officially stepping up as our Chief Technology Officer.
In the early days of a startup, titles don't mean much. What matters is who owns the vision when things get hard. Pato has been that person since the beginning. He helped architect its DNA.
As we move into our next phase of hyper-growth, Pato is the leader we need at the helm of our technical strategy.
1/ The Foundation: Pato was instrumental in building the backbone of the Proof Market. He took complex prover node infrastructure and made it streamlined, documented, and ready for global scale.
2/ The Architect: Pato designed a completely new system architecture from the ground up. This novel approach is now the bedrock for everything we are shipping next.
3/ The Visionary: From conceiving to creating Workflow Execution Engine - our foundational platform for upcoming initiatives - Pato has a rare gift for connecting first-principles engineering with market-moving strategy. Pato is a builder who raises the bar for every engineer in the room.
The mission is clear: Building the fastest, most reliable programmable execution layer in the world.
Pato, I’m honored to have you as my partner leading this charge. Let’s build. 🚀
man, the team is inspiring me
they are fixing a ton of bugs, adding features, i am dizzied at their speed
@flashcaster is sending daily dev changelog in his own style
monday mornings hit different when you've been waiting for one this long.
beta is live. 15 people are in right now breaking everything we built.
and honestly? i hope they break all of it.
that's the whole point of this week. find every crack.
fix every crack. ship the vision.
let's go
this is so true
intelligence is rarely a superpower - it's powerful, but it's a superpower only when it's off the charts
what i have realized is the core thing that is helping me and Fermah is utmost resilience and steadfast focus on upsides while ruthless minimizing downsides