Valkyrie Finance

Pair trader | LP provider | On chain| Ex poker pro

Sharing my more rapid market takes at

[Valkyrie Finance @ValkyrieFinance]

Bought more $SPCX off the trump TACO news. Hedge it with $TSLA, $ASTA and $RKLB Since it is going to vamp all the attention now. Also bought some silver

[Valkyrie Finance @ValkyrieFinance]

@Cheshire_Cap Mine lolol

[Valkyrie Finance @ValkyrieFinance]

Key mistakes

Don’t get too attached to macro views. I don’t have much experience here, yet I was massively short based on it. I should have invalidated my thesis much sooner. This feels similar to last year’s tariff saga, when I stayed net short while the market kept grinding up. The difference then was that I wasn’t as net short and I had $BTC and $HYPE longs, which softened the blow.

Don’t oversize when shorting stocks. Stock flow is very different from crypto because options flow matters a lot more. That’s a hard lesson I learned this month.

Lastly, I need to invalidate myself and take the L much sooner instead of just prayin .

[Valkyrie Finance @ValkyrieFinance]

Monthly review( Apr 2026):

Charts below show my portfolio performance(excluding airdrops) for April and since inception.

Performance

• Apr: Portfolio -19.67% | BTC 12.09%

• Since 1st June 2025: Portfolio -9.88% | BTC -27.73% (2.1x volatility ratio)

I took a long time to write this because I was too busy moping around. Time heals, and now I can look at the month objectively and accept the money I lost. There is no sugarcoating it: I traded badly, sized too big, refused to accept earlier losses, and dug myself into a deeper hole.

The only saving grace: I’d rather make this mistake now than when my portfolio is much larger.

[Valkyrie Finance @ValkyrieFinance]

Notable events

2-week ceasefire: Going into the announcement, I was net short, which was obviously wrong in hindsight. Trump threatening nuclear warfare on civilians in Iran was always likely a bluff, and he was always more likely to go to the table. Furthermore, funding was negative going into the event, which meant most people were already hedged. The R/R to stay short was terrible. I could have simply covered and reassessed. I didn’t.

[Valkyrie Finance @ValkyrieFinance]

Trading journal 450:

Added back $XMR while replacing $CRCL with $SKY. For stocks, shorted some starter size $TSLA, $EWY and $PLTR. My mistake was sizing too large last time and too soon. So reduced size now

[Valkyrie Finance @ValkyrieFinance]

Will be doing a public journal almost everyday from now on. Used to do it privately but missed it sometimes as I am lazy lol. Doing it publicly will hold me more accountable

Trading journal day 1:

Feeling pretty overwhelmed as I am underperforming after the election. Prior to the election, I was performing well as I was right on BTC.D trending towards end of November. It was pretty easy to choose the longs and shorts at that time. Just have to long BTC lol.

Then the election looms and I closed my positions as I thought i do not have an edge there. Thought of longing $AAVE then pussied out lol. Then Trump won and I thought it was sell the news event where $BTC will dump first before resuming up. That is when i will 3x long $BTC. Alas it never come. The selling pressure was absorbed by the spot market. I wasnt conditioned to the regime change and did not pivot fast enough. I thus waited for the dip that never come as dips become shallower. This left my perps account having underwhelming performance

My spot/meme account was doing ok though it can be better. Missed quite a few runners as I was pinching saving such as $PIPPIN and $LUCE. Also missed out on $PNUT as I thought it is going to be a one and done narrative. Missed out on DOGE as I dont want to pivot to the ETH chain as I wanted to focus on solana and base chain as i tend to not perform well on ETH chain. I also make a mistake on BASE chain as I size too little on $RUSSELL which i have pretty high conviction on.

Moving forward, I think it it will be positive EV for me to transfer most of my perps account on the next dip to my spot account as I already missed the Bitcoin trade and on chain will offer greater returns. Also, I will be more selective of coins I will enter and enter them with bigger size on shallower pullbacks with higher take profit target as right now, exposure to the market is more important than timing the market.

[Valkyrie Finance @ValkyrieFinance]

Trading journal 449:

Sold my gold, took off my $XMR and $VVVV. Added $CRCL. Beta remains neutral

[Valkyrie Finance @ValkyrieFinance]

I have 4 1 month campbell ramble substack to giveaway. Dm me on tele for it

[Valkyrie Finance @ValkyrieFinance]

Key mistakes:

I got attached to my PnL and my bias instead of reading what the market was telling me — and that hurt my decision-making. I took on too much directional exposure in a geopolitically-driven market (war) where my edge is thin. I should've been asking myself every single day: should I even be taking directional trades right now? The other option was to simply take the L and not trade.

Note to self:

My performance this month is simply dogshit. I'm in a lot of pain — it's been a long time since trading has felt this hard. But that's the nature of this job, and I have to accept it.

My main mistake was not closing my trades and instead holding on through major market events, hoping they'd reverse my PnL losses. But losses can compound into further losses. From now on, I'm adopting a simple heuristic: if I'm on the fence about closing a trade, I close it.

I also think I need something outside of trading. I've been using it as a way to feel productive, and that's a trap. It's okay to not be productive.

[Valkyrie Finance @ValkyrieFinance]

Monthly review( Mar 2026):

Charts below show my portfolio performance(excluding airdrops) for March and since inception.

Performance:

• Mar: Portfolio -10.00% | BTC 3.81%

• Since 1st June 2025: Portfolio +20.14% | BTC -35.36% (2.1x volatility ratio)

I've been procrastinating on writing this because it's been a painful month — which ironically means I should've written it sooner. I traded badly: I was trading on hope rather than facts, sized too large in an uncertain and volatile market, and wasn't nimble enough to cover positions when I should have. I also took too much directional risk in a war-driven market where I have very little edge, instead of simply sitting out.

[Valkyrie Finance @ValkyrieFinance]

Notable events:

$EWY and $NIKKEI: I didn't close these positions when the war started. The honest truth is I had no informed view on how the war would play out — and when you have no edge, you should close everything and wait for clarity. I was also oversized going in.

Mar 9: I went net short into Mar 9 due to the oil supply situation. Woke up and it was going well — $BRENTOIL hit $117, with my TP at $120. My dumb ass didnt take any profit and just roundtrip everything and got liquidated at $83 the next day.

I have this naive thinking that the oil supply issue was understated and prices should be higher. What I missed was that short-term expectations were already massively overstretched — $117 was already way above fair value. I also didn't use a trailing stop and was oversized.

On top of that, I was holding onto my crypto shorts and stock positions with no trailing SL either. I should have reverted to beta neutral here given I had no real directional edge. The kicker? I had actually backtested the ETF and Coinbase premium signals — both showed positive correlation with price. And I still held the shorts anyway.

My reasoning for not closing was that the war would drive inflation higher and hurt growth. But that's a long-term macro thesis — and in the short term, bear market rallies can be brutal. If I wanted to play that thesis, I should have sized down significantly.

Side note: Mar 9 was my girlfriend's birthday. Can't believe that marked the local top.

Mar 23: I told myself not to long oil anymore as i didnt want to be too overexposed. Yet i broke my rule and promptly got liquidated on my oil long. I watched my portfolio drop 10% in under a minute on the Trump "soft Taco" news.

In hindsight, I will like to think i can derisk my shorts in lieu of Monday open as Trump is more likely to give positive news on Monday. Furthermore, there was a new insider wallet that shorted almost $50M worth of oil on HL. With these factors, it is not worth holding shorts into Monday. This is however not that big of a mistake considering the other mistakes I made.