V4 Value Media

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[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

My points why I think IRAN just lost the war that no one sees.
1) Trump baited Iran to sign a Ceasfire, where they showed their weak spot in it being Kharg Island's oil infrastructure.

2) the Ceasfire allowed US ships in the strait to clear mines and move traffic Tankers out safely.

Major points:
This week will determine the war!!
If more US ships move in the strait without being fired upon then the US won. Because after the two week Ceasfire is over what do Iran do?
1) they can't go back to blocking the Strait because now you have US warships on their front gate. Plus other Naval vessels will be in there at some point.
2) the Trump will undoubtedly bomb Kharg island this time.

Note: so Iran's best option is to let the strait stay open. Keep their Island and Oil flowing to supply China. But the IRGC would be in a tough spot keep the money or build back your economy where the inflation will crash the country.

This Ceasfire will just keep extending. The IRGC leadership will be in constant fear knowing that the war is at a standstill, they cannot come up from underground because they will be taken out. They cannot attack first because Kharg island infrastructure will be destroyed which they need.

Biggest loss for Trump in this:
It will be the fact that Iran will keep the 400kg of 60% enriched uranium they have. But monitoring the airspace will be something they will constantly have and he himself can break the Ceasfire if he chooses. So the uranium will just sit there underground for years before being moved.

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

$20 million of your taxes was set aside for TV time. A judge just hit mute. 🔇📺

Late Sunday, U.S. District Judge Jennifer Rochon (S.D.N.Y.) issued a temporary restraining order against the DHS/CBP-funded ad blitz featuring President Trump, weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms:

💰 OMB apportioned $20M to CBP for "commemorative events"; about $1.7M had aired by Sept 29 (AdImpact)
⏱️ The order runs 14 days: cancel remaining slots, no renewals
🏛️ Plaintiffs: Common Cause, SEIU 32BJ and a Democratic Alabama candidate; the DNC has a separate suit
🗣️ The White House calls them public service announcements; GOP Sens. Thune and Kennedy had already said taxpayers shouldn't fund them

What both sides will skip:
• This is a temporary order, not a final ruling. It can be extended, appealed or narrowed.
• DOJ said the buys were ending anyway; the judge cancelled the rest regardless.
• "$20M spent" headlines overstate what actually aired.

Bottom line: the politics are loud; the legal clock is 14 days.

Sources:
Court order: https://t.co/dMwUqtLHGw
NBC: https://t.co/L4lIxnPSFf
CBS/AP: https://t.co/7INZ8W7D68

Normal PSA, or campaign ads with a government invoice? Other views welcome. 👇

#Politics #Midterms #Trump

[NBC News @NBCNews]

JUST IN: Federal judge orders Trump administration to pull remaining taxpayer-funded ads and bars any more from being made in the future. https://t.co/bYY812lhgs

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

CBO penciled in 4.1%. The bond market punched 5.31%. 📈

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spent the weekend roasting Sen. Elizabeth Warren over rising borrowing costs. The letter went viral. The yield chart is the part that sticks:

📈 10-year Treasury (FRED): peaked at 5.31% on Oct 5, highest since ~2002
🏠 30-year mortgage (Freddie Mac): 7.40% as of Oct 8, up from 6.30% a year ago
🧾 CBO's Feb 2026 Outlook: 4.1% average in 2026, 4.3% through 2030
💸 Treasury long-bond buybacks since Sept 10: $15.3B accepted
🏦 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's FOMC hiked to 3.75–4.00% on Sept 16

Read the tape both ways:
• Bessent is right that buybacks aren't new; the program started May 2024. The size did jump.
• Warren is right that yields didn't fall after the bigger buybacks, and families feel it in mortgages. But her "won't top 4.4%" line overstates CBO.
• Global yields rose with the energy shock too. This isn't only a U.S. political story.

Bottom line: the snark writes itself. The mortgage payment doesn't care who won the letter.

Sources:
FRED: https://t.co/ARmAhV1rPL
Freddie Mac: https://t.co/3Bp8g8xyGT
Warren letter: https://t.co/SG1FJUnO0Y

Self-inflicted policy, or the bill for oil, deficits and a thin bond market landing at once? Other views welcome. 👇

#Economy #InterestRates #Bonds

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

A judge signed it. HSI served it before sunrise. 🏛️

Federal agents searched the Washington-area home of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) early Monday, and the Justice Department confirmed it:

⚖️ DOJ statement: "Homeland Security Investigations executed a judicially authorized search warrant secured by the Department of Justice. This enforcement action is part of an ongoing federal investigation." (Fox News / CBS News)
🛂 Three sources tell CBS the probe centers on Omar's immigration paperwork, with HSI (ICE's investigations arm) leading and DOJ assisting. Fox's sources say the paperwork was filled out by her late father when she was a child.
🗓️ Border czar Tom Homan said in September there was an "ongoing criminal investigation." Omar said at the time she hadn't been contacted. (CBS News)
🏛️ Congress is out of session, and it's unclear whether Omar was home. (BBC)

⚖️ What we don't know yet:
• No charges have been filed. A search warrant means a judge found probable cause to search, not proof of a crime.
• What agents were looking for, or took, hasn't been made public.
• Most details beyond DOJ's two sentences come from unnamed sources. Omar hasn't publicly responded as of this morning.
• The midterms are three weeks out (Nov. 3). Supporters will call it accountability and critics will call it timing; the court record is what will settle it.

▶️ Sources: AP: https://t.co/Ak3jmBI9tN · CBS: https://t.co/nb365nRy1H · Fox: https://t.co/QNDUk6yEUJ · NBC: https://t.co/N0SgZyvY1G · BBC: https://t.co/z4GFv05IYo

Equal justice finally reaching Congress, or a probe whose timing hurts its own credibility? Make your case either way. 👇

#Breaking #IlhanOmar #ICE

[Reuters @Reuters]

BREAKING: US authorities conducted a predawn raid on the Washington-area home of Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar as part of an ongoing investigation, the Justice Department said https://t.co/4nH1Be56Ty

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

China's trade deficit dropped 44%. Then it caught a flight to Hanoi. ✈️

On Sep 25, USTR said the China deficit "was $300B coming into President Trump's term; we're now tracking to have only a $140B deficit with China this year." Here's what the Census data says:

✅ China goods deficit: $297B in 2024 → $166B over the last 12 months (through Aug). That's −44%. The "down 40%" claim checks out.
📊 Jan–Aug 2026: $110B. At that pace the year lands near $164B, above the $140B "tracking" number
📈 China's monthly deficit has climbed 5 straight months: $9.8B in March → $18.4B in August
🌏 Vietnam $123B → $229B. Mexico $169B → $224B. Taiwan $74B → $210B (2024 vs last 12 months)
🧾 Those 4 combined: $663B → $830B (+25%). Mexico and Vietnam both set August records

⚖️ The nuance (why the data can mislead either way):
• Trade diversion: some Chinese production gets routed or finished in Vietnam and Mexico. The China number falls while the goods still arrive.
• Front-running: importers rushed goods in ahead of tariffs (China hit $31.9B in Jan 2025 alone). That distorts year-over-year comparisons.
• Taiwan's jump lines up with the AI build-out (chips and servers). That's tech demand, not necessarily a tariff failure.
• The total matters: the overall trade deficit IS down 19.9% so far this year (BEA), with exports up 11.8%. The administration has a real case on the total, just not only through China.

Bottom line: the China number is real. So is the shift to other countries. Watch both.

▶️ Watch: https://t.co/lZpdWQqMb8

Sources:
Census (China): https://t.co/GgtnkKJvaA
Census (by country): https://t.co/B8c5G5s4Od
BEA (Aug 2026): https://t.co/kXfY5i24sv

Is shrinking the China number a win if the goods just come through Vietnam and Mexico? Or is moving supply chains to allies the whole point? 👇

#Tariffs #China #Trade

[Rapid Response 47 @RapidResponse47]

"The trade deficit that we have with China is only growing..."

@USTradeRep: "That's not true at all. It was $300B coming into President Trump's term; we're now tracking to have only a $140B deficit with China this year. The trade deficit in goods with China is down by 40%!"

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

UKMTO says projectile. Tehran says mine. Same choke point, more smoke. 🛢️

Sunday just added another layer to Hormuz risk, and the two official stories still don't match:

🛰️ UKMTO (Oct 11): an outbound tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was struck on the port side by an unidentified projectile. All crew safe; no environmental impact reported.
🛢️ UKMTO via gCaptain: a second outbound tanker was hit by an unknown projectile Saturday evening (fire onboard, crew safe). Neither ship named; no blame assigned.
🇮🇷 IRGC Navy (state media): claims a crude "super tanker" hit a naval mine on an "unauthorized route" Sunday, its third such "violator" since Saturday. No ship name, flag or independent confirmation.
📉 Kpler data (via CNBC/Al Jazeera): crude through Hormuz averaged ~8.5M barrels a day in the week ended Oct 7, roughly 40% below normal.

⚖️ Still developing / why early takes mislead:
• "Mine" and "unidentified projectile" are not the same claim. Posts merging them are guessing.
• Ship names, flags and owners are still missing from Western advisories. Iranian video isn't verified ID.
• Markets are closed. Monday's crude and diesel open will price this faster than any Sunday thread.

Bottom line: in peacetime Hormuz carries about 1/5 of the world's oil and gas. This weekend means more incidents, thinner verification, and a midterm clock.

Sources:
gCaptain: https://t.co/jUDyL9OjOr
Al Jazeera: https://t.co/jBpzzhYyjg
Mehr (IRGC claim): https://t.co/lB6QOvkZ4Z

If insurers and shippers treat Hormuz as a combat zone again, do U.S. diesel prices spike, or does the Russia diesel deal soften the shock? Other views welcome. 👇

#Breaking #Iran #Oil

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

Hours after "effective immediately," Kharkiv's power plant caught fire. 🔥

Trump's Sunday energy ceasefire just met its first hard test, and the smoke is over eastern Ukraine:

🔥 Zelensky (evening address): a Kharkiv power plant was attacked this evening, after Trump's "energy ceasefire" statement. This week: 200+ strikes on electricity, 17 on gas/oil; 150+ killed, 700+ wounded. "Ukraine wants peace. The question is whether Russia does."
🏭 He also told von der Leyen a Kyiv power plant was hit by a drone before their call, with more strikes on Kharkiv-region energy "AFTER the President of the United States made his statement."
📰 ABC: a local official says Kharkiv's CHP-5 was struck at least twice, causing a fire. Russia has yet to comment on the ceasefire.
🏛️ This morning, the White House: "Effective Immediately: An ENERGY CEASEFIRE… Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!"

⚖️ Still developing / why early takes mislead:
• A presidential graphic is not a verified halt. No public text, start time or monitors.
• Zelensky says Ukraine supports the pause and is still waiting on U.S.–Russia details.
• Moscow hasn't confirmed terms. One strike doesn't settle the week, but it's the opposite of "both parties have agreed" on day one.
• Trump made a similar energy-ceasefire claim about a month ago, and strikes continued (NBC).

Bottom line: watch what Russia says next, and what oil does when futures reopen tonight.

Sources:
ABC: https://t.co/0rqOI6AK28
Kyiv Independent: https://t.co/fg98B6IvVL

If Putin never signed on, was this a ceasefire, or a midterm headline that markets will reprice tonight? Other views welcome. 👇

#Breaking #Ukraine #Russia

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

Today, there was a statement from the President of the United States that an energy ceasefire has been secured. This is good news for everyone – and it is important that it become reality.

Unfortunately, Ukrainian skies have been infested with Russian “shaheds” all day today. There have been glide bomb strikes and strikes on our energy infrastructure too. A power plant in Kharkiv was attacked this evening.

Overall, this past week alone, the Russians have carried out more than 200 strikes on our electricity generation and transmission facilities in Ukraine, and another 17 strikes this week targeted gas and oil facilities. They have killed more than 150 of our people, and more than 700 people have been wounded.

Ukraine has proposed many de-escalatory steps. Putin had one answer to all of them – “nyet.” We do hope that he will finally say something to America, Ukraine, and the entire world that will lead to a real and dignified peace.

Ukraine wants peace. The question is whether Russia does. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have received all the appropriate orders. We are awaiting clear details of the dialogue between America and Russia – and we expect Putin to follow through on what President Trump said.

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

The Fed's rate is lower than a year ago. Your mortgage didn't get the memo. 🏠

On Oct 1, the President said: "Interest rates can slow down growth. We want growth — and growth does not cause inflation." Here's where the numbers stand:

🏦 Fed funds rate: 3.75–4.00%. That's still below the 4.00–4.25% of a year ago, even after the Fed's 12–0 hike on Sep 16
📈 10-year Treasury: 5.24% (Oct 9), up from 4.14% a year ago
🏠 30-year mortgage: 7.40% (Freddie Mac, Oct 8), up from 6.30% a year ago
🛒 Inflation: 3.4% over the 12 months to August. Core (ex food & energy): 2.4%
⛽ Energy prices: +16.3% in a year

⚖️ The nuance (why the data can mislead either way):
• The Fed sets SHORT-term rates. Mortgages track the 10-year, which the bond market sets based on inflation expectations, deficits and how much debt Treasury has to sell. A Fed cut doesn't guarantee a cheaper mortgage.
• Core inflation (2.4%) is near the Fed's 2% target. By rough math, energy adds about 1.2 points of the 3.4% headline. That backs the "growth isn't the problem" argument. But the Fed hiked anyway, saying inflation "remains elevated."
• Growth by itself doesn't cause inflation. Demand that outruns supply can. Both sides pick the inflation number that fits their story.
• The next CPI report is Oct 14. One month can change this picture.

Bottom line: the fight over the Fed's rate is real, but the rate that hits your family's budget is being set by the bond market.

▶️ Watch: https://t.co/1wX52Kr3pu

Sources:
Fed: https://t.co/7lziF1r3x8
BLS CPI: https://t.co/UscLVR26dY
Treasury yields: https://t.co/WLLyCs81wn
Freddie Mac: https://t.co/3Bp8g8xyGT

Who has it right, the White House or the Fed? And would a rate cut actually bring mortgages down? 👇

#Inflation #Fed #MortgageRates

[Rapid Response 47 @RapidResponse47]

.@POTUS: "Interest rates can slow down growth. We want growth — and growth does not cause inflation."

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

They ignored the radio. A fighter jet answered on the stern. 🚢

CENTCOM says U.S. forces disabled a commercial freighter in the Gulf of Oman on Oct. 10 after it tried to run the Iran naval blockade:

🚢 Target: Panama-flagged M/V Ocean Molica (also called Arika Sun). A U.S. fighter jet hit the stern with a precision munition, knocking out propulsion. CENTCOM says the crew was unharmed.
📡 Why: The ship ignored repeated warnings after leaving an Iranian port.
📊 Since the blockade resumed July 14: 4 commercial vessels disabled, 135 ships turned around, and 10 tankers linked to the IRGC's shadow network destroyed (CENTCOM)
🛢️ Backdrop: The same weekend, Trump ruled out a strike on Iran before the Nov. 3 midterms and pushed a Russia diesel deal to cool $6+/gal diesel. Hormuz risk is still the oil story.

⚖️ Still developing / why early takes mislead:
• This is blockade enforcement CENTCOM has been doing for months, not a new decision to hit Iranian soil.
• Cargo, ownership and intent beyond CENTCOM's statement aren't independently verified yet.
• Markets are closed for the weekend. Monday's crude and diesel reaction will say more than Saturday headlines.
• "No strike before midterms" and kinetic enforcement can coexist. Don't collapse them into one story.

Bottom line: the world's energy choke point is still under kinetic rules, even with the midterm calendar in play.

▶️ Watch: https://t.co/IMTXFqnp0M

Sources:
CENTCOM: https://t.co/IMTXFqnp0M
Reuters: https://t.co/FP1yKvr2Ei
Middle East Eye (full CENTCOM text): https://t.co/DzbEKIoQ9j

Does precision-disabling blockade runners keep oil flowing, or keep the Hormuz risk premium baked into every gallon? Other views welcome. 👇

#Iran #Energy

[U.S. Central Command @CENTCOM]

U.S. Forces Disable Cargo Vessel Attempting to Violate Blockade

TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces disabled a commercial cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman, Oct. 10, after the ship’s crew ignored repeated warnings and attempted to run the ongoing naval blockade against Iran.

A U.S. military fighter jet struck the stern of Panama-flagged M/V Ocean Molica (also known as the “Arika Sun”) with a precision munition, fully disabling the ship’s propulsion without harming the crew. The large cargo vessel was attempting to transit regional waters after having previously departed an Iranian port.

CENTCOM forces resumed America’s blockade against all ships entering or departing Iranian ports on July 14. Four commercial vessels have been disabled and 135 ships have been turned around during three months of strict enforcement. Additionally, U.S. forces have destroyed 10 tankers linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' multibillion-dollar shadow network over the same period.

All mariners are advised to heed blockade warnings from CENTCOM forces. Crews should also continue to monitor Notice to Mariners broadcasts and contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches.

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

America now spends more on interest than on Medicare, and that's not a typo. 💸

On Oct 8, USTR Ambassador Greer said the President's trade policy "has led to deficit reduction." The same day, CBO released the full-year FY2026 budget numbers:

📈 Budget deficit: $1.993T, UP $218B (+12%) from FY2025
💸 Interest on the debt: $1.143T, up 11%, now MORE than Medicare ($1.069T)
🏛️ Tariff revenue: $172B net, DOWN 11%, after ~$130B was refunded when the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in February
🧾 Total national debt: $40.31T as of Oct 8 (Treasury)
🏦 The Fed RAISED rates to 3.75–4.00% on Sep 16, a 12–0 vote, even as the President argues higher rates slow growth

⚖️ The nuance (why the data can mislead either way):
• Greer may mean the TRADE deficit. USTR says the China goods gap is down ~40%. That is a different number from the BUDGET deficit, and both can be true at once.
• The tariff number is skewed by one-time, court-ordered refunds. The ruling, not the policy itself, is what shrank net revenue this year.
• CBO's FY2026 figures are preliminary. Interest is up because of higher rates AND debt stacked up over decades, under both parties.

Bottom line: the trade story and the budget story are not the same story. Interest is now the line to watch.

▶️ Watch: https://t.co/ZYXdQCJyFm

Sources:
CBO: https://t.co/wFXeE65BYe
Treasury: https://t.co/fFvz3UkXfx
Fed: https://t.co/7lziF1rBmG

Where do you see it differently? Is the trade win worth the budget math, or is interest about to crowd out everything else? 👇

#NationalDebt #Economy

[Rapid Response 47 @RapidResponse47]

.@USTradeRep Ambassador Greer: "The President is very comfortable with his trade policy. He's proud of it. It's led to deficit reduction. We have 72,000 new manufacturing jobs this year. We have 110,000 new factory construction jobs... The numbers are going the right direction."

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

Did the China trade deficit shrink, or did it just change addresses? 🤔🚢

On Sep 25, USTR said the China deficit "was $300B coming into President Trump's term; we're now tracking to have only a $140B deficit with China this year." Here's what the Census data says:

✅ China goods deficit: $297B in 2024 → $166B over the last 12 months (through Aug). That's −44%. The "down 40%" claim checks out.
📊 Jan–Aug 2026: $110B. At that pace the year lands near $164B, above the $140B "tracking" number
📈 China's monthly deficit has climbed 5 straight months: $9.8B in March → $18.4B in August
🌏 Vietnam $123B → $229B. Mexico $169B → $224B. Taiwan $74B → $210B (2024 vs last 12 months)
🧾 Those 4 combined: $663B → $830B (+25%). Mexico and Vietnam both set August records

⚖️ The nuance (why the data can mislead either way):
• Trade diversion: some Chinese production gets routed or finished in Vietnam and Mexico. The China number falls while the goods still arrive.
• Front-running: importers rushed goods in ahead of tariffs (China hit $31.9B in Jan 2025 alone). That distorts year-over-year comparisons.
• Taiwan's jump lines up with the AI build-out (chips and servers). That's tech demand, not necessarily a tariff failure.
• The total matters: the overall trade deficit IS down 19.9% so far this year (BEA), with exports up 11.8%. The administration has a real case on the total, just not only through China.

Bottom line: the China number is real. So is the shift to other countries. Watch both.

▶️ Watch: https://t.co/lZpdWQrk0G

Sources:
Census (China): https://t.co/GgtnkKK308
Census (by country): https://t.co/B8c5G5sCDL
BEA (Aug 2026): https://t.co/kXfY5i2Ci3

Is shrinking the China number a win if the goods just come through Vietnam and Mexico? Or is moving supply chains to allies the whole point? 👇

#Trade #Tariffs

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

The bigger question no one is asking: "deficit reduction"... which deficit? 🤔📊

On Oct 8, USTR Ambassador Greer said the President's trade policy "has led to deficit reduction." The same day, CBO released the full-year FY2026 budget numbers:

📈 Budget deficit: $1.993T, UP $218B (+12%) from FY2025
💸 Interest on the debt: $1.143T, up 11%, now MORE than Medicare ($1.069T)
🏛️ Tariff revenue: $172B net, DOWN 11%, after ~$130B was refunded when the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in February
🧾 Total national debt: $40.31T as of Oct 8 (Treasury)
🏦 The Fed RAISED rates to 3.75–4.00% on Sep 16, a 12–0 vote, even as the President argues higher rates slow growth

⚖️ The nuance (why the data can mislead either way):
• Greer may mean the TRADE deficit. USTR says the China goods gap is down ~40%. That is a different number from the BUDGET deficit, and both can be true at once.
• The tariff number is skewed by one-time, court-ordered refunds. The ruling, not the policy itself, is what shrank net revenue this year.
• CBO's FY2026 figures are preliminary. Interest is up because of higher rates AND debt stacked up over decades, under both parties.

Bottom line: the trade story and the budget story are not the same story. Interest is now the line to watch.

Sources:
CBO: https://t.co/wFXeE65BYe
Treasury: https://t.co/fFvz3UkXfx
Fed: https://t.co/7lziF1rBmG

Where do you see it differently? Is the trade win worth the budget math, or is interest about to crowd out everything else? 👇

#NationalDebt #Economy

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

The bigger question no one is asking is who is Iran selling their oil too. Think about it. Iran was selling their oil to China off the market. Now if Trump allows their oil, it would be on the market. That's why the Europeans are happy because they're getting cheap oil from Iran. Oil will be below $1.50 with the flow of Iran oil on the market

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

The bigger question no one is asking is who is Iran selling their oil too. Think about it. Iran was selling their oil to China off the market. Now if Trump allows their oil, it would be on the market. That's why the Europeans are happy because they're getting cheap oil from Iran. Oil will be below $1.50 with the flow of Iran oil on the market

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

The bigger question no one is asking is who is Iran selling their oil too. Think about it. Iran was selling their oil to China off the market. Now if Trump allows their oil, it would be on the market. That's why the Europeans are happy because they're getting cheap oil from Iran. Oil will be below $1.50 with the flow of Iran oil on the market

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

The bigger question no one is asking is who is Iran selling their oil too. Think about it. Iran was selling their oil to China off the market. Now if Trump allows their oil, it would be on the market. That's why the Europeans are happy because they're getting cheap oil from Iran. Oil will be below $1.50 with the flow of Iran oil on the market

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

@MarioNawfal Just what if he purposely did this. Whose suffering the most Europe. Maybe he's getting them back for talking big when Greenland was on the table. No matter what Trump wins. He must be the luckiest or the smartest. Take your pick.

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

My points on why I think IRAN just lost the war that no one sees or fail to see. 

Trump baited Iran to sign a Ceasfire, where they showed their weakness in it being Kharg Island's oil infrastructure. 

The Ceasfire allowed US ships into the strait of Hormuz to clear mines and move Ship Traffic ie. Oil Tankers out safely

Major points:

This week will determine the war!!. 

If more US ships move in the Strait without being fired upon the US won, because after the two week Ceasfire is over what do Iran do? 

    a) they can't go back to blocking the Strait because now you have US warships on their front gate and additionally other countries Navy will participate once mines are cleared. 

     b) Trump will undoubtedly bomb Kharg island this time if Iran retaliates, which is their weak spot. 

NOTE: 

IRANS  best option is to let the Strait of Hormuz stay open. Keep Kharg island oil infrastructure flowing supply to China for profits.  The problem here for the IRGC is do they take the profits for themselves or improve their economy with it where it will crash at any point with high levels of inflation 

This Ceasfire will just keep extending. The IRGC leadership will be in constant fear knowing that the war is at a standstill and they cannot attack first because Kharg island will be destroyed, again which they showed is their weakness. 

The biggest lost for Trump in this will be the fact that Iran will keep the 400kg of 60% enriched uranium they currently have. But the US will constantly monitor their airspace and surveillance the region. So they best outcome for Iran on the uranium is to keep it underground and wait out Trump. 

Trump can break the Ceasfire for the Uranium or if the IRGC top members surface from underground. 

ALL THIS OVER A CEASFIRE!!!!. 

Iran just lost the war and the only way for them to recoup is to block the Strait again and break the Ceasfire. But if they wait and the US move in, they completely just lost.

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

My points on why I think IRAN just lost the war that no one sees or fail to see. 

Trump baited Iran to sign a Ceasfire, where they showed their weakness in it being Kharg Island's oil infrastructure. 

The Ceasfire allowed US ships into the strait of Hormuz to clear mines and move Ship Traffic ie. Oil Tankers out safely

Major points:

This week will determine the war!!. 

If more US ships move in the Strait without being fired upon the US won, because after the two week Ceasfire is over what do Iran do? 

    a) they can't go back to blocking the Strait because now you have US warships on their front gate and additionally other countries Navy will participate once mines are cleared. 

     b) Trump will undoubtedly bomb Kharg island this time if Iran retaliates, which is their weak spot. 

NOTE: 

IRANS  best option is to let the Strait of Hormuz stay open. Keep Kharg island oil infrastructure flowing supply to China for profits.  The problem here for the IRGC is do they take the profits for themselves or improve their economy with it where it will crash at any point with high levels of inflation 

This Ceasfire will just keep extending. The IRGC leadership will be in constant fear knowing that the war is at a standstill and they cannot attack first because Kharg island will be destroyed, again which they showed is their weakness. 

The biggest lost for Trump in this will be the fact that Iran will keep the 400kg of 60% enriched uranium they currently have. But the US will constantly monitor their airspace and surveillance the region. So they best outcome for Iran on the uranium is to keep it underground and wait out Trump. 

Trump can break the Ceasfire for the Uranium or if the IRGC top members surface from underground. 

ALL THIS OVER A CEASFIRE!!!!. 

Iran just lost the war and the only way for them to recoup is to block the Strait again and break the Ceasfire. But if they wait and the US move in, they completely just lost.

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

My points on why I think IRAN just lost the war that no one sees or fail to see. 

Trump baited Iran to sign a Ceasfire, where they showed their weakness in it being Kharg Island's oil infrastructure. 

The Ceasfire allowed US ships into the strait of Hormuz to clear mines and move Ship Traffic ie. Oil Tankers out safely

Major points:

This week will determine the war!!. 

If more US ships move in the Strait without being fired upon the US won, because after the two week Ceasfire is over what do Iran do? 

    a) they can't go back to blocking the Strait because now you have US warships on their front gate and additionally other countries Navy will participate once mines are cleared. 

     b) Trump will undoubtedly bomb Kharg island this time if Iran retaliates, which is their weak spot. 

NOTE: 

IRANS  best option is to let the Strait of Hormuz stay open. Keep Kharg island oil infrastructure flowing supply to China for profits.  The problem here for the IRGC is do they take the profits for themselves or improve their economy with it where it will crash at any point with high levels of inflation 

This Ceasfire will just keep extending. The IRGC leadership will be in constant fear knowing that the war is at a standstill and they cannot attack first because Kharg island will be destroyed, again which they showed is their weakness. 

The biggest lost for Trump in this will be the fact that Iran will keep the 400kg of 60% enriched uranium they currently have. But the US will constantly monitor their airspace and surveillance the region. So they best outcome for Iran on the uranium is to keep it underground and wait out Trump. 

Trump can break the Ceasfire for the Uranium or if the IRGC top members surface from underground. 

ALL THIS OVER A CEASFIRE!!!!. 

Iran just lost the war and the only way for them to recoup is to block the Strait again and break the Ceasfire. But if they wait and the US move in, they completely just lost.

[V4 Value Media @ValueMediaNews]

My points on why I think IRAN just lost the war that no one sees or fail to see. 

Trump baited Iran to sign a Ceasfire, where they showed their weakness in it being Kharg Island's oil infrastructure. 

The Ceasfire allowed US ships into the strait of Hormuz to clear mines and move Ship Traffic ie. Oil Tankers out safely

Major points:

This week will determine the war!!. 

If more US ships move in the Strait without being fired upon the US won, because after the two week Ceasfire is over what do Iran do? 

    a) they can't go back to blocking the Strait because now you have US warships on their front gate and additionally other countries Navy will participate once mines are cleared. 

     b) Trump will undoubtedly bomb Kharg island this time if Iran retaliates, which is their weak spot. 

NOTE: 

IRANS  best option is to let the Strait of Hormuz stay open. Keep Kharg island oil infrastructure flowing supply to China for profits.  The problem here for the IRGC is do they take the profits for themselves or improve their economy with it where it will crash at any point with high levels of inflation 

This Ceasfire will just keep extending. The IRGC leadership will be in constant fear knowing that the war is at a standstill and they cannot attack first because Kharg island will be destroyed, again which they showed is their weakness. 

The biggest lost for Trump in this will be the fact that Iran will keep the 400kg of 60% enriched uranium they currently have. But the US will constantly monitor their airspace and surveillance the region. So they best outcome for Iran on the uranium is to keep it underground and wait out Trump. 

Trump can break the Ceasfire for the Uranium or if the IRGC top members surface from underground. 

ALL THIS OVER A CEASFIRE!!!!. 

Iran just lost the war and the only way for them to recoup is to block the Strait again and break the Ceasfire. But if they wait and the US move in, they completely just lost.