History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
In 2008, systemic risk was hidden in subprime mortgage CDOS.
Today, it's multi-trillion-dollar leverage built on cheap Japanese Yen funding.
The mechanical sequence when liquidity dries up:
- Yen spikes / BoJ tightens โ Debt service costs surge
- US assets dumped โ Collateral values plummet
- Margin calls trigger โ SEC/FINRA capital rules kick in
- Forced buy-ins execute โ Illiquid short positions get squeezed
This isn't a real estate bubble. It's a global balance-sheet unwind.
#Macro #YenCarryTrade #MarketStructure
#Finance