VedaPartners

Veda Partners provides market-focused macroeconomic policy and healthcare analysis to institutional investors, private equity, and venture capital.

[Morning Call @CNBCMorningCall]

What Wall Street is watching in terms of what Washington needs to get done this summer @HenriettaVeda
https://t.co/j7IDmCbchV

[Henrietta Treyz @HenriettaVeda]

Tariffs are back and so is Congress. @USTradeRep Greer is about done with a new investigation that would put 10-12.5% tariffs on 87 nations (the EU, Japan, China etc.) for trading with countries that use forced labor. These are best considered an IEEPA replacement since @SCOTUSblog took that authority away Feb 20th, just 8 days before the Iran war started.
There's another tariff basket brewing on many of these same nations (the EU, China, Japan, etc.) which we at @VedaPartners1 expects will be ready in a few weeks time. Those could layer on top of these and create new, higher tariff rates just as voters are most concerned about inflation, "affordability" and the US economy.
Great to be with @emrwilkins and @TheDomino on @CNBCMorningCall this morning!
I'll be discussing the latest on these tariffs with my colleague Dan McCarthy at 11am ET on our Macro Webcast - DM to join us. #OOTT #tariffs #tradewar

[VedaPartners @VedaPartners1]

📅 Congress is back. What will June Bring?

@HenriettaVeda joined @BloombergRadio's @tomkeene and @ptsweeney to break down the latest from Capitol Hill.

[Henrietta Treyz @HenriettaVeda]

Since the outset of the Iran war, @gop lawmakers and their staff have been telling me they're watching/waiting for two variables: $5 gas and June. In their view, $5 gas was "the new $4" and June was when President Trump would need to pivot to domestic policies to help Republicans hold the House and Senate going into the midterms. Now here we are, with the ceasefire on month two, in June, but gas at a previously inconceivable $4.33/gallon.
With a fractured Republican conference, an AUMF on the verge of passing in the House after passing in the Senate when @BillCassidy lost his primary and went YOLO and as my favorite Republican House staffer puts it to me "only 18 legislative days left until the August recess", its extremely unlikely that we get a gas tax holiday and I'm optimistic the President won't impose an export control ban - at least not yet.
We've gotten to June, but not to $5. Amazing and, as @FerroTV puts it, a humbling market. Great to be with @lisaabramowicz1 and @annmarie and (from the Green Room) Apollo's Torsten Slok this Monday morning! @BloombergTV @VedaPartners1

[VedaPartners @VedaPartners1]

@PerlmanVeda is featured in @modrnhealthcr's coverage on CMS’s move to permit non‑network plans on the ACA exchanges. Spencer outlines how state regulatory decisions will determine whether these plans gain traction or deliver meaningful savings.
Thank you @ntepper90.

[Henrietta Treyz @HenriettaVeda]

Part 2 of the Hormuz Hangover: the lasting effects of choices made the night before. After the physical damage to energy facilities in the region, the new reality carries "lingering, existential ramifications" as Iran could move to close the strait anytime https://t.co/fvhfBeAkKx

[Henrietta Treyz @HenriettaVeda]

The Hormuz Hangover has two parts: 1) the physical pain (80+ facilities bombed out across the Gulf that's yielded a 62% increase in gas prices) and 2) the existential dread you wake up with seeing that Iran has a deployable economic nuclear weapon in the form of cheap and deadly missiles and now that you've made contact, you've got to coordinate with them to navigate the Strait to go about your day. A very costly night out.
Thanks for having me on to discuss @_MorganLBrennan and @CNBCMorningCall

[VedaPartners @VedaPartners1]

STAT's piece on CMS’s proposed changes to Medicaid state directed payments features analysis from Veda’s, Spencer Perlman. Spencer outlines how the proposal goes beyond the OBBBA and what it could mean for providers across the country.
@TaraBannow @statnews @PerlmanVeda

[VedaPartners @VedaPartners1]

@TaraBannow's @statnews piece on CMS’s proposed changes to Medicaid state directed payments features analysis from Veda’s, @PerlmanVeda. Spencer outlines how the proposal goes beyond the OBBBA and what it could mean for providers across the country.
https://t.co/7lddobLdnE

[VedaPartners @VedaPartners1]

@TaraBannow's @statnews piece on CMS’s proposed changes to Medicaid state directed payments features analysis from Veda’s, @PerlmanVeda. Spencer outlines how the proposal goes beyond the OBBBA and what it could mean for providers across the country.

https://t.co/7lddobLdnE

[VedaPartners @VedaPartners1]

Breaking down the latest on the primaries, the outlook for the midterm elections, and how the conflict with Iran is shaping voter sentiment.
@HenriettaVeda @FerroTV @annmarie @lisaabramowicz1 @BloombergTV @Bloomberg

[VedaPartners @VedaPartners1]

@HenriettaVeda had the pleasure of speaking at AGF’s conference this week in Washington, DC. Grateful for the thoughtful questions and the chance to connect with so many engaged participants. Thank you @agf for putting together such a wonderful event!

[VedaPartners @VedaPartners1]

🏥The ACA exchange is undergoing significant changes. Thank you to @statnews and @TaraBannow for highlighting @PerlmanVeda's analysis.

https://t.co/2oVJh5WXRB

[VedaPartners @VedaPartners1]

@HenriettaVeda joined @BloombergTV to discuss the latest on the Iran conflict and US options.

As always, thank you @FerroTV and @annmarie for the thoughtful discussion.

[Henrietta Treyz @HenriettaVeda]

Hugely important. Also critical: insurers are still requiring coordination with the IRGC if a ship wants to traverse the Strait and there is no US insurance backstop that’s trusted. Operation Economic Fury and the @USTreasury have a tremendous amount of work to do on the tax front. #oott

[VedaPartners @VedaPartners1]

💨 On the move! Absolute pleasure to start the day with @TheDomino and @CNBCMorningCall.

@HenriettaVeda @pboockvar @JayWoods3

[VedaPartners @VedaPartners1]

🍹Tom Keene mentioning mojitos can only mean one thing: it is Friday!

Always fun joining @tomkeene and @ptsweeney in the @business Radio studio. Great conversation with @HenriettaVeda on the midterms and the latest from Washington DC.

[VedaPartners @VedaPartners1]

📺Kicking off Friday in the Bloomberg studio!

@HenriettaVeda joined @BloombergTV to share her thoughts on the Trump – Xi summit.

Always great to be with @FerroTV and @lisaabramowicz1 in person.

[Henrietta Treyz @HenriettaVeda]

Scott Bessent is the first Treasury Secretary to be point person for a US-China trade delegation since Hank Paulson during the Great Financial Crisis. As such, if there are any breakthroughs in the trade landscape between the two nations this week, I suspect it'll be around the soybean deal Bessent negotiated in 2025.
Farmers are in seriously dire straits with a 46% increase in bankruptcy rates last year, deportations, tariffs and now closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But my analysis of the Phase I trade deal reached in 2020 vs the deal reached by Bessent last year illustrates a huge structural part of the problem: USTR Lighthizer negotiated a deal that would have seen China purchase 142M tonnes of soybeans over two years. The deal Bessent negotiated five years later? 87M tonnes over four years. A massive downgrade that's only compounded by higher fertilizer costs from the Iran war and the 2025-era Liberation Day & section 232 tariffs and lack of farm workers.
Farmers and Republican lawmakers up for reelection next year need the help here. Would be a big win for Trump and down ballot lawmakers if they could come away with something on soy this week.
Thanks for the great conversation @scarletfu and @ptsweeney on @BloombergLive

[Henrietta Treyz @HenriettaVeda]

It takes 60-90 days for PPI hikes to bleed into consumer costs, just as it took 60-90 days for grocery prices to rise post a crude price shock. The inflation prints this week make a clear case for a Fed hold at best and hikes for the newest @federalreserve Chair in the months ahead. Great to be with @Boris_Sanchez to discuss on @CNN