Zefir

I1PSDP

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Korea is reportedly reconsidering a short selling ban, per Reuters

[Yuto 🇯🇵 @yutokanzakireal]

日本銀行は身動きが取れず、

日本銀行は最悪のシナリオについて議論した。

ドルの暴落、あるいは基軸通貨としての地位の喪失は、世界恐慌をはるかに凌駕する事態を引き起こす可能性がある。

日本と米国は、現在の体制を何としても守ろうとするだろう。

これから新たな秩序が生まれるかもしれないが、その移行は苦痛を伴うものとなるだろう。

[Zefir @Vertoveck]

Coinbase $COIN reports third straight quarterly loss on trading slowdown.

[The Earnings Correspondent @earnings_guy]

$COIN (Coinbase Global) #earnings are out:

[The Earnings Correspondent @earnings_guy]

$AMZN (Amazon) #earnings are out:

[The Earnings Correspondent @earnings_guy]

$RDDT (Reddit) #earnings are out:

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

I absolutely hate gap ups with a passion.

- I have seen plenty of gap ups turn into total traps that fade completely just hours later.
- I have seen violent dead cat bounces in structural downtrends.
- I have seen violent bear market rallies in structural downtrends.

The absolute best thing you can do today is simple: close the laptop, do not look at the markets, and come back next week.

When a real bottom is finally formed, you want as much mental and physical capital available as you can possibly put to work. Don't waste your energy overtrading a choppy, fake morning pump.

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Oil has a high probability of heading towards 104 on this next leg.

The 4-hour chart is showing a broadening pattern, and the 5th reference point higher is now in play.

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

All these stocks hit new 52 WEEK HIGHS at some point today

Apple $AAPL
JPMorgan $JPM
Coca-Cola $KO
Airbnb $ABNB
Gerdau $GGB
General Motors $GM
Visa $V
Bristol-Myers $BMY
Altria Group $MO
Johnson & Johnson $JNJ
Merck $MRK
Viatris $VTRS
Philip Morris $PM
Healthcare Realty Trust $HR
Raytheon $RTX
Incyte $INCY
CenterPoint Energy $CNP
3M $MMM
AbbVie $ABBV
IQVIA Holdings $IQV
PACCAR $PCAR
Corteva $CTVA
Healthpeak Properties $DOC
Target $TGT
Kimco Realty $KIM
Masco $MAS
MetLife $MET
Welltower $WELL
HF Sinclair $DINO
Omnicom $OMC
Ventas $VTR
CubeSmart $CUBE
Fortive $FTV
Axalta $AXTA
Amgen $AMGN
American Healthcare REIT $AHR
Royalty Pharma $RPRX
Life Time $LTH
SiriusXM Holdings $SIRI
Stanley Black & Decker $SWK
Levi's $LEVI
Halozyme Therapeutics $HALO
Ross Stores $ROST
Coca-Cola Europacific $CCEP
Victoria's Secret $VSXY
Best Buy $BBY
Electronic Arts $EA
Travelers $TRV
T. Rowe Price $TROW

[The Earnings Correspondent @earnings_guy]

$BE (Bloom Energy) #earnings are out:

[Zefir @Vertoveck]

The https://t.co/iiMaVRQAPJ webpage is an interactive financial and industry mapping tool that breaks down the entire AI supply chain and ecosystem from an equity investor's perspective.

Philosophy is "From Watts to Intelligence"—tracing how raw electricity is transformed into compute, compute into AI models, and models into commercial products.

[Beardo @BeardoTrader]

The $VIX is forming a head and shoulders pattern on the 4 hour chart.

Since the start of this correction, every spike has made a lower high.

[CK Capital @CKCapitalxx]

This is one of the worst momentum selloffs of history.

If you survive this you can survive anything.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Tomorrow is going to be a historic day.

Market expectations for tomorrow's Fed decision are among the most divided in recent history.

Currently, interest rate futures imply a ~30% chance of a rate hike and a ~70% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

By comparison, nearly every Fed meeting since March 2020 has entered decision day with ~99% consensus.

Adding to the uncertainty, Fed Chair Warsh has effectively eliminated forward guidance, leaving markets with little direction ahead of the announcement.

That said, we continue to believe that the Fed will NOT hike interest rates tomorrow.

It's important to not forget that just months ago, President Trump said a "pre-condition" for his next Fed Chair was a willingness to cut rates.

And, the Iran War energy shock is likely to continue being labeled as a "temporary inflationary event" rather than a structural one, the labor market is weak, and Americans are already struggling with high interest rates.

We think the Fed PAUSE continues tomorrow.

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

The crazy part about this correction is:

1. The S&P 500 has yet to drop.
2. The VIX has yet to spike.

At the moment, violent sector rotation and profit-taking are killing the parabolic growth stocks underneath the surface.

But make no mistake: if this rolling liquidation spills over and broad selling picks up across the board - it will be a total disaster.

Two things you've gotta continue doing

1. Keep cash handy, be hedged
2. Dont go bottom fishing, you can dip toes into stocks you like but only via a starter position.

[TM @TMtheOG]

Full stop guys .

The oil price is now officially being manipulated to save the US economy

Negative events are being sold as positive, it seems like a direct intervention by the government

This won’t hold for long . CAREFUL . Red Sea is now the new Hormuz

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: South Korea’s stock market falls nearly -8% as the global chip stock selloff accelerates.

[Milk Road AI @MilkRoadAI]

Morgan Stanley just mapped out the entire AI infrastructure supply chain, and it reveals who actually gets paid at every layer of the trillion dollar buildout (Save this).

This heatmap breaks the AI infrastructure value chain into two dimensions those who owns and operates the data centers at the top and what physical and technical components get built underneath to make those data centers function.

At the top sit the owners/operators, the hyperscalers like Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft, alongside data center REITs, private equity giants like Blackstone and Brookfield, enterprises and neoclouds including CoreWeave and Nebius.

These are the companies writing the massive capex checks that fund everything below them.

Below that sits the actual build out, split into seven layers, semi production, processors, server components, servers, network, internal power/cooling and power supply.

Semiconductor production is dominated by names your audience already knows well, Nvidia and AMD for GPUs, TSMC adjacent foundries, ASML and Applied Materials for capital equipment, and Micron and SK Hynix under memory/storage.

But the less obvious money is in the physical infrastructure layers most retail investors never look at.

Server components include passive parts from Yageo and Murata, thermal solutions from Sanyo Denki, and PCB substrates from companies like Unimicron.

Network infrastructure includes InfiniBand and Ethernet gear from Nvidia and Arista, plus optical/DCI routing from Cisco and Ciena.

Internal power and cooling is arguably the most underappreciated category here.

It includes liquid cooling specialists like Vertiv and CoolIT, power electronics from Siemens and Eaton, and uninterruptible power supply makers like ABB and Legrand, all companies solving the literal heat and electricity problem created by cramming more GPUs into less space.

So who benefits from all of this?

Everyone in every box benefits in some way but the real insight is that value doesn't concentrate at just the GPU layer anymore.

The hyperscalers at the top are distributing capex across seven distinct physical layers which means the picks and shovels opportunity set has expanded well beyond Nvidia into cooling, grid infrastructure, and power generation.

Milk Road Pro is tracking each one of these layers, come join us for just a dollar using the link below!

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

NOBODY WARNED ME ABOUT INVESTING IN MY 20s.

SO I'M WARNING YOU.

(Write these down. Save them. Screenshot them.)

1: Your emergency fund is not optional

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Updated look at the increasingly "circular AI financing" complex, mapped out by Bloomberg.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

This is turning into of the worst days for Semis all year.

Market seems to be reacting to a few things:

- A Chinese state-backed company has started mass-producing its own DUV lithography machines. The market is worried that the development could reduce China’s dependence on Western suppliers like ASML and weigh on future equipment demand

- NVDA backstopping OpenAI’s new datacenter buildout with $250B is making the market think that things are getting a bit too circular

- NVDA investing $5B into a new AI startup once again is creating fears of circular financing

- China just had their second largest IPO ever and it was a memory company which is now making the market think that oversupply of memory and a peak in prices is underway

Trump tried to calm down markets by saying that the US and Iran are talking, which got Oil down 7%, but isn’t really helping the chip stocks. Usually, a drop on oil that big would explode high beta names like semis but the market seems to be taking the China buildout threat seriously.

Effectively, the market is saying that China supply coming through means the constraints that create the pricing/earnings power for the semis is diminishing. I’m not sure if this is actually true, especially given how new these reports are, but it goes to show how fragile the entire semi trade is if a headline like this can wipe out $500B+ from the entire sector today.

As always, if semis go down hard, the software names go up which is why software is rallying heavy today.

Are you buying the semi dip or is this a legitimate concern?

$MU $SNDK $INTC $NVDA $AMD