Dave Hochman

Systematic Projections

[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

Interesting to think that roughly $4 trillion in capex, debt and leases rests on the performance of 300ish people ($13 billlion per person). Realistically all of those people need to outperform all of the openweight/open source models by at least a 2 sig move for ROI to appear on time (or at all).... Frontier models need not only to be great, but also continuously benchmark higher than free/open (which is measurable) and by a quantifiable margin.

- Token costs are down 37% from May peak $NVDA
- What is the threshold for a CFO to justify 90% as good for free over paid? $SNDK
- LLM labs pivoting to 'enterprise sales' $META
- How long does Frontier API premium last over open source self hosting? $CRWV
- And by task tier (and task value)? $IREN
#RedOctober

[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

And lastly, if you made it here, make sure to subscribe for exclusive trade alerts, content, livestreams and more. You will want to see this analysis!

[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

New article will cover:
- 'First time in history people have borrowed more against their stocks than they did in the peak of dot-com... and it just started to unwind' $CRWV
- 'One private company loses ~$14b/year, owes ~$1.15 trillion to mega caps...

[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

- ... bought ~$7.9b 3x levered chip ETF (most of any security on Earth) and lost $36b in eight weeks. Smart money was selling the entire way down
- Current tech 'moat' is a people premium problem, where the people can and do leave (and why that really, really matters) $META ...

[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

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[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

How 300 people driving trillions in CapEx (quantitative and qualitative value personell in Frontier Labs), why they're leaving/starting their own, and wouldn't it just be cheaper to in house solution and pay lawsuit later? Go open weight anyway right? $META

[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

How 300 people driving trillions in CapEx (quantitative and qualitative value personell in Frontier Labs), why they're leaving/starting their own, and wouldn't it just be cheaper to in house solution and pay lawsuit later? Go open weight anyway right? $META

[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

Chart relevancy; $ORCL $META. Part of a larger section in our August report.

[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

It's fifty (almost, percent).. $QQQ 0DTE

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Private equity is stuck with 33,575 unsold businesses, per NYT

[Amigo de Frodo @bpdflores]

The sign of the Kingdom of God present among us necessarily prioritizes that the poor and vulnerable be defended from the machinations of the powerful. This is not complicated; though often deliberately obfuscated.

Ps 82,3-4
Do justice for the weak and the orphan; give justice to the poor and afflicted.
Rescue the weak and the needy;
set them free from the hand of the wicked.

[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

@bpdflores Beautiful. Thank you Bishop.

[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

Low of the day so far is $712.61. $QQQ 50 day sma at 713. Currently at 716.82. Implied move into end of day is $1.67 or 23bps. VWAP essentially here at 716.67. Interesting setup. Bought the 720/713 strangle for .11 looking for .22+.

[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

What to watch; in a few weeks the next ABS will price and the pre-sale to final price arguments settled. Sub 4% excess spread will get the attention it deserves. Public tests always win.

[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

Extremely reputable and respectable publication Hunterbrook (being serious) came out with a long thesis on $CVNA which I agree with in part; Walter's shares are pledged to $C and therefore $C most likely will not let him sell them..

[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

Because if first lost tranches (mystery buyer(s)) go no bid, then the senior tranches won't either (for the same GOS economics). Therefore, these subpoenas could reveal that and alot more..

[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

Sometimes you just get a perfect storm and everything will coalesce into pricing parity $CVNA. Mark Jenkins (CFO) has sold alot of his stock (no surprises, it's his to sell and his comp). Really interesting last few weeks for Jenkins:
August 12: Jenkins doted out at JPM conference (lead underwriter)
August 13: Bloomberg story on Walters emergency loans (with double digit yields, ouch)
August 14: Carvana pledged everything for floating rate term loan
August 16: four intermediaries story lands

Coming weeks: not sure how Jenkins stays on in the same capacity. SEC investigation is still live. May or may not be correlated. Take a sabbatical.

The subpoena will look into Jenkins architecture of the gain on sale structure he built no doubt. He was just on stage with $JPM speaking to the other day. Hopefully he didn't allude to cleanliness of mystery buyers (Jenkins was a Wharton professor prior).

[Dave Hochman @Vibeship1]

@blue_chip1 Carvana disclosed receiving a formal SEC subpoena in June 2025 (in its July 2025 10-Q)