Victor Cossel

TMT (Tech, Media, Telecom) Desk Analyst @ Cornerstone Macro F.K.A. @ VIX_TEKNOWLEDGY

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

we were talking TECH with TD Ameritrade TV for 10 mins; https://t.co/3tedeBHIh4

$MSFT $GOOGL $CRM $TSM > $AAPL $AMZN

thank you to @TDANetwork & @OJRenick

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

TECH's #derating
Estimates higher ✅
➕Rates higher ❌
= NDX P/E lower ❌

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

TECH estimate revisions are positive but better numbers are not offsetting the rise in rates & real rates, thus #derating of $QQQ $NDX

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

When yr/yr $QQQ EBIT growth decelerates toward risk free rates Tech underperforms $SPX. Current Nasdaq estimates are accelerating EBIT growth y/y vs 10Y yld. MAGA cap TECH shows better op margins as they amortize servers over 4 years instead of 3 $AMZN $MSFT #ValuationTailwind

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

Nasdaq may be expensive but the underlying #PositiveEstimateRevisions are making that multiple more digestible. If the earnings yield improves by growing into the multiple and rates remain low, then TECH continues to screen well.Continuing claims vs $NDX ebit estimates below.

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

$TSM #BuildThatFab #FutureProvesPast

*TSMC CONFIRMS IT WILL BUILD $12B PLANT IN ARIZONA

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

I came up with BYOO - Bring Your Own Office. Then a quick google search revealed people have been using it for years ... Anyways, covid shock = an accelerant = a tailwind for TECH $QQQ https://t.co/Qnl9WMu792

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

$NDX Nassdaq100 Equity Risk Premium nearing 450 bps = lows of the last 8yrs while flirting with GFC lows. But #BAAspreads are not near lows of the last decade. Two ways to resolve this... working a resolution out now.

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

Price action last 20yrs is $QQQ > $TLT as TECH the only #GlobalGrowth game in town. When dust settles a V-shaped recovery may not = V for value as #UbiquitousComputing supports disintermediation of concentrated groups in offices, travel hubs, shops. $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

$SMH time to pass baton from #SemiCaps to #SemiChips. Top 5 revenues for SEMI CAPS are up 16% y/y following chips' upping capex plans. $AMAT called a shallow trough, so a lower peak on the upside? Now comes y/y revenue catch up for the chips $ADI $INTC $NVDA $AMD $MCHP $TXN $TSM

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

#SupplyChain was warned back in August 2019. Now #FutureProvesPast ... what else? " $GOOGL TO INVEST OVER $10B IN US OFFICES, DATA CENTERS IN 2020 " https://t.co/zzQlk6sVkB

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

US #Semiconductor #IndustrialProduction for January was released today and shows continued acceleration y/y. $INTC and other US semi manufacturers have guided their Cal1Q already but the Jan. data is off to a nice start. +12.5% y/y.

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

Looks like the green line is off of the chart...literally... $NVDA data center up >40% y/y. #FutureProvesPast h/t $INTC

https://t.co/2qYBKyJe4i

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

$INTC $NVDA #DataCenter ... guessing the green line is going up???

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

$SOX companies provide #FoundationalTechnology underpinning cloud #ArtificialInteligence, #MachineLearning algos etc along with US technological #CompetitiveAdvantage ... yet US #semis & #semicaps are valued at a discount to "digital advertising companies."
#SomethingAintRight

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

SOX Party Like It's 1999... into AMAT & NVDA the $SOX forward EPS forecast was ~$98 EPS... assuming beat & raise ad nauseam continues then we could see a positive revision toward $100 EPS at a discounted multiple < $QQQ say 20x = 2000 or "1999" for SOX near term? Time will tell.

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

CPU competition cometh $INTC $AMD https://t.co/hMl11jmitb

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

Nasdaq 100 $QQQ EBIT margin revisions UP toward 20%.
S&P 500 $SPY EBIT margin revisions DOWN from 15.5%.
#divergence ... Tech is bigger % of $SPX #marketcap yet EBIT margins, EBIT growth, absolute EBIT $s are bigger portion of the Marché

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

Tick Tock & Ya Don't Stop. The 20 day moving average of the #Nasdaq $QQQ #TickIndex $TICKQE remains negative = more stocks sold than bough, on net. Arguably, limited commitment and or no crowding into TECH...yet.

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

The Nasdaq $QQQ "net long" is not all that long. #CFTC positioning data for net long remains well BELOW prior peaks.

[Victor Cossel @Victor_Cossel]

#StrategicReset continues... high value add US software IP + boxes by $NOK $ERIC $Samsung $CSCO means
1) #Huawei cant scale outside China
2) US software IP differentiates 5G
3) US #semis OK to ship into such solutions $SOX
That the plan @larry_kudlow
https://t.co/JcZEVmbS0Q