Vince__RFC

Reading FC fan, enjoy almost all sports but specifically Football, Rugby and Golf

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

Totted up long term rugby results. More detailed numbers in the attached but simple numbers...

Prem 21/22: +54.6pts +30.08% ROI
Super Rugby 22: +10.32pts +13.85% ROI
Overall since June '20: +67.39pts +10.67% ROI

Very happy with Prem numbers but it's doing the heavy lifting

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

Steward who's one of the best under a high ball at either end. If Fiji break the line Smith isn't stopping anyone. Nothing on the bench to excite anyone. If Fiji get into a decent lead England have big problems

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

Could go on about the England team selection for ages, lot of it doesn't make sense. Farrell at 10 over Ford because he's the captain presumably, but he'll only be punting it into the sky all game anyway because May and Daly on the wings, in 2023...

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

All the wingers in the squad and playing Premiership this weekend and end up with those two somehow. Smith, not a 15, at 15 makes no sense. Fair enough they might expect Fiji not to kick much but Smith isn't going to get the ball much to do his thing, plus you've taken out

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

Ireland v New Zealand tonight will be massive. There's both loads to say about rach team and also not much need to, it'll just be huge. I've a sneaky feeling NZ might come out on top but can't say why exactly. A match just to watch and enjoy

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

.. Whilst not beating world beaters and should have lost to Fiji but still put up a load of points and demolished Australia. Argentina haven't recovered from that England performance but have the ability to cause problems. A nice warm up match for the weekend ahead

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

#RWC2023 QF weekend, plenty to look forward to.

At the start of the tournament I'd have been with Argentina to beat Wales but on the evidence of what we've seen so far the Welsh could win with a bit to spare. They're two even teams but Wales have the momentum and confidence..

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

Should be a highly competitive league this season though. Outside of Newcastle and maybe Exeter everyone should be capable of beating anyone else om any given week

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

The start of the Premiership has snuck up and starts tonight. Not sure on my interest levels at the moment, mainly due to the World Cup being on and the lack of London Irish but will give it a go

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

@TouchdownTips Yeah it's OK as a free bet, one might get subbed off but hopefully would have already scored

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

#RWC2023 France v Italy

Ioane and Bruno anytime - both 7/2 365, 0.5pts

Decent price on both wingers. Italians wingers normally know how to score and have done so far this WC. Over the 3 matches 5 of the 6 wingers have scored, including both vs NZ

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

@tyoulen The Australia minus looks too obvious but couldn't be trusting them. South Africa around -41 looks like the first decent looking bet of the weekend

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

Noticed something interesting stat wise, so had a little dig into it. The interesting thing being how many tries South African wingers score, the answer being 1/3rd of all their tries since the last World Cup. A higher percentage than any other big 10 team

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

Interesting observations include England wingers not scoring many but 15 does. Scotland and Italy rely on the back 3 a lot. SA full back only scored once in four years. NZ spread the tries around a lot

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

The image attached shows the numbers. Note this is only matches since the last World Cup and also matches between the team listed + Fiji otherwise things can get skewed

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

That 11/1 looking decent

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

Pool betting is interesting. 8/1 Fiji to win group is a good price, or just to qualify 39/20.
Australia are over rated, best price 1/8 to qualify is far too short so the flip side of 11/1 not to reach the QF a good bet (market name differs from book to book) that's 365 though

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

#RWC2023 Wales v Australia

Wales win - 10/11 365/PP 1pt

Have to stick to the Australia aren't very good line here, because they aren't. Not super keen on Wales either but they're less bad

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

#RWC2023 South Africa v Ireland

South Africa win - 10/11 boyle 1pt

Should be a great game but could be a little like SA-NZ was in warm up. The 7-1 split means SA forwards can go all out for 45/50 mins, blow Ireland away then change them all and let then bench do the same

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

#RWC2023 England v Chile

England -50 - 1/1 365 1pt

Expect England to slowly exert dominance as the game goes on and Chile tire

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

#RWC2023 France v Namibia

Dupont FTS - 9/1 365 0.5pt
Dupont 2+ tries - 21/10 365 1pt

Seen it a few times with 9s (Roigard, Reinach) taking advantage of space around the edges vs the smaller nations. Dupont can spt space as well as anyone

[Vince__RFC @Vince__RFC]

11 of the 16 World Cup games so far have gone under the points line. What can be concluded from that I'm not too sure but interesting none the less