Violet Alpha

Macro-driven market insights and trade analysis

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

@NWTM_Mgmt

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

Markets are informationally efficient but structurally inefficient

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

1/20/26 portfolio addition:

• Ares Strategic Mining (small long) — The only permitted primary fluorspar mine in the U.S., sitting at the intersection of EVs, semis, uranium enrichment, and onshoring, where scarcity—not scale—does the heavy lifting.
#ARSMF

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

1/20/26 portfolio addition:

• United States Antimony Corp. LEAPS
Pure-play exposure to a strategic metal the U.S. suddenly cares about. Antimony = defense, energy storage, and supply-chain panic. Zero substitutes, asymmetric upside if Washington sticks to the plan.
#UAMY

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

1/20/26 portfolio addition:

• Vizsla Silver Corp. Lots of LEAPS
Tier-one jurisdiction + district-scale silver discovery + leverage to a silver bull that’s no longer theoretical. Optionality on resource expansion and multiple re-rates if silver stays bid.
#VZLA

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

#LMT #NOC #LHX #ATI #RTX

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

defense tech is asymmetric
If tech is +10%, DT is like +8 or +9.
If tech is −10%, DT is more like −5.
You get real tech upside, government-backed downside protection, and a weird optionality on things like war and geopolitics backed into a volatility dampener with crisis alpha

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

@GoldSeabridge @NWTM_Mgmt

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

biometric surveillance duration specific blocking method.
Filed. 63/798,472.

[Tony Greer @TgMacro]

The commodity trade looks astounding from here.
Copper is up 4% for the 2nd week in a row. Silver up 4%, new ATH. WTI crude up 2%, slowly bottoming. Natgas up 7 weeks in a row, +10% to $5.35 this week.
$BCOM up 2%.
STOCKS: $OIH and $URNM up 7%, $XME up 4%, $XLE and $IGE up 2%+, transports up 4% 2nd week in a row.
National Security Strategy hits the tape and reads like a fossil fuel and nuclear renaissance.
Predictive of 2026? Oh yeah.

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

Gold miners will continue to carry the alpha, but I’m starting to favor up-capping toward the majors.
Uranium likely takes the throne in ’26.
Oil sleeps until ’27 — accumulate while everyone else still hates it.

Not owning $AEM is negligible…

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

$AEM $RGLD
$SA $BAYGF
$WPM $PAAS
$VZLA $AYASF
$CCJ $DNN
$NXE $UUUU
$XOM $CVX
$DVN $SM

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

Gold miners will continue to carry the alpha, but I’m starting to favor up-capping toward the majors.
Uranium likely takes the throne in ’26.
Oil sleeps until ’27 — accumulate while everyone else still hates it.

Not owning $AEM is negligible…

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

$GDX
$GDXJ
$SIL
$SILJ
$URA
$URNM
$XOP
$XLE

[Seabridge Gold Investor (NYSE:SA | TSX:SEA.TO) @GoldSeabridge]

Michael Oliver of Momentum Structural Analysis thinks this is "the most important chart in the world" because it signals the generational movement of money from equities to precious metals. $SA

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

@Mr_Derivatives Feels like we need one more shakeout

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

Better match?

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

Miners tech analog. $AEM, $FNV, $NEM, $WPM, $B, $EGO

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

Long BHVN

[Violet Alpha @VioletAlpha_]

Gold pullback was useful, cleared the casuals.

Currently shadowing the broader tape —I’m watching for the turn: gold drifting flat or green while equities leak. That’s when beta dies, the hedge reappears.

Some chop ahead. 4k is the pivot; even 3.2k wouldn’t break the script.