reclaim $83k, stay above the 200MA and we get 4h bullish trend back on $BTC, same S/R flip as mid Sep
lose $80k and the door to $75k opens
fairly simple PA (full analysis on how i’m playing this on telegram)
how to not get your crypto hacked.
bookmark this forever:
1. hardware
- buy direct from the company or an authorized retailer. never random resellers
- seed card already filled in when you received = scam. throw it
- ship it to a pickup point, not your home
- update firmware only through the official app
2. seed
- metal over paper. never a photo, cloud or notes app
- never enter your seed into a website or software wallet. restore only through your hardware wallet's official recovery
- don't split your seed manually. no redundancy and it leaks information. use shamir or multisig instead
- test your backup before funding: built-in check or wipe and restore. untested backup = no backup
- two copies, two locations. fire is a hacker too if seed burns
3. setup
- vault: a hardware wallet that never touches dapps
- hot wallet for daily use. burner for anything new
- bigger bags: passphrase on top. small decoy bag on the seed, real bag behind the passphrase
- back up the passphrase too, stored apart from the seed. lose it and nothing recovers your coins
- multisig when the amount justifies it. no single point of failure
4. signing (where most people get drained)
- verify on the device, never trust the website alone. bybit lost $1.5B to a compromised UI
- can't read it? don't sign it
- "free" signatures can drain you with zero gas (permits)
- one malicious eip-7702 authorization can delegate control of your entire account
- on solana, one bad tx can reassign your token accounts. simulate before you sign
- review approvals monthly. revoke what you don't need
5. sending
- never copy addresses from tx history. scammers plant lookalikes
- check the full address on the device, not just the first and last 4
- small test tx before every big one
6. machine
- a laptop that only touches crypto. clean browser, no random extensions
- download wallets only from the official site. app stores and search results are full of fakes
- never run "meeting apps", game builds or files strangers send
- never share your screen or install remote access. "support" asking for anydesk = scam
- bookmark every site. never click search ads
- surprise airdrops and NFTs = trap
7. exchanges
- unique password everywhere. 1password or bitwarden
- 2FA with an authenticator app or passkey. never SMS
- 2FA backup codes offline. not in email, not in cloud
- lock your SIM with a carrier PIN. sim swaps still work
- separate email only for crypto. nobody knows it
- turn on withdrawal whitelists
- not your keys, not your coins. move out what you're not trading
8. opsec
- don't flex your bags or your setup. wrench attacks are rising
- support never DMs first.
- avoid phishing emails, only trust official sources
- have an inheritance plan. dead keys are lost coins
9. quantum (check my other quantum tweet for detailed advice)
- not a threat today and anyone selling quantum panic is selling something
- btc: never reuse addresses. sending from one exposes its public key forever
- btc: park long-term coins in addresses that have never sent a tx. taproot (bc1p) and old p2pk show the key from day one
- btc: bip-360 proposes a step toward quantum-resistant addresses. not live. proposals also exist to freeze unmigrated coins
- eth + erc20: sending a tx exposes your public key. signing messages can expose it too so keep major bag on clean wallet
- sol: your address is your public key. exposed from day one. experimental winternitz vaults exist, not standard wallet protection
hardware rarely gets hacked. people do.
In the past 24 hours, over 140,000 Pumpfun users collectively benefitted from:
- $730,000 in Holder Rewards
- $330,000 in Callout Rewards
- $3,400,000 in Creator Fees
In time, Pumpfun will vastly outperform the social media industry in user payouts & rewards
Last week the median coin went down 35%
There were only 5 coins on our list that are up on the week.
Now is the time to see what coins have strong holders and not just a strong narrative.
We have also adjusted our holder strength metrics to now include relative strength in the index. Its one of the most important metrics to distinguish a weak token from a strong one.
This is probably a controversial take but I think we won't see a pure meme above 1 billion market cap this cycle.
The reason for that is that the market has matured and evolved. Trading memes has become a hyper optimized game that is just a wealth transfer from new participants to those who have the right tools.
Last cycle a normie could buy a viral tiktok meme, log off and hope for the best. This cycle we have a dozen launchpads on a dozen chains with a dozen launch settings.
It is near impossible for a normie to navigate through all of this. Even if they managed to do so, there is a 90% chance another token with a slight difference tries to vamp.
This isn't only bad for normies but also for the whole ecosystem. The liquidity is spread among 5 different tokens on the same narratives. A coin that would've went to 5 million now now splits that capital between 10 different coins that all top at 1 million.
People would rather take a shot at a 10x on a vamp than ride the original to a billion. This mindset forces all other participants to adapt or die.
Above a certain market cap there is no marginal buyer left for a coin with no fundamental value anymore. Degens already bought. Funds can't underwrite it. And whoever is still on the sidelines has 50 other coins competing for the capital.
Going forward I think the only tokens that can reach a billion are tech coins. Real innovation in AI or tech, plus a value accrual mechanism that creates an outside bid. Something buying the token that isn't just the next degen.
That outside bid is the key part. Revenue funded buybacks, burns tied to usage, a reserve that grows with volume. A buyer that shows up whether sentiment is good or bad. Pure memes don't have that.
AI is 100x more efficient than last cycle. I'm sure we will see a lot of innovation happening through crypto rails this cycle.
RWA paired memes sit somewhere in between. They have meme distribution and community with a real asset or a real narrative beneath them.
The question here is whether that middle ground is enough to break through the ceiling pure memes keep hitting. I think it can be. The attention engine of a meme plus a reason to hold beyond attention is a combination we haven't seen run at scale yet.
In practice this means the ceilings on pure memes are lower than people price in. Take profits earlier on runners. Spend more time looking for coins with an outside bid.
Pure memes won't be the runners of this cycle.
Celebrating 600,000 followers by giving away total $500 in $ETH to 5 people over the next 48 hours.
To join:
1. Like and repost this tweet
2. Follow @murtaza and me
3. Tag your friends
First of many. Good luck, love you all 🙌
Everyone tells you to BUY THE DIP, but nobody shows you how!
This is the easiest, newbie-proof method for buying dips that I have been using since 2021.
Save this for the bull market 👇
🟣 Is it still dip-buying season?
1. Early bull market (where we are now): buy every dip
2. Retail FOMO kicks in: slow down
3. Near the top: stop buying dips and take profit
Deeper we go into the bull run, the less you buy and the more you sell.
🟣 Is the coin still cheap?
Look at $ZEC
Up over 20x in a year. Now a top 10 coin at around $25B
For ZEC to do another 10x it needs a $250B market cap.
Possible? Maybe.
Likely? I wouldn't bet my dip money on it.
Now look at $TAO
Still over 50% below ATH, at $3.5B market cap.
TAO could 7x and still be smaller than ZEC is today.
If you hold ZEC, congrats! But the bigger upside is in alts still far below their highs. That's where I'd rotate some profit.
🟣 Split your dip money into 4 bags
Say you've got $1,000 for dips:
$150 / $200 / $300 / $350
Bigger bags the deeper it dips = better average entry
🟣 Buy your alts when $BTC dips
Using $TAO as an example:
BTC 🔻5% = buy $150 TAO
BTC 🔻10% = buy $200 TAO
BTC 🔻15% = buy $300 TAO
BTC 🔻20% = buy $350 TAO
Alts usually dip way harder than BTC. When BTC is down 5%, TAO is probably down 10%+
What if an alt barely dips while BTC dumps? That's strength, and strong coins often lead the next leg up.
Keep holding it. Want more? Use a separate bag for strength and don't touch your dip money.
🟣 Got more time?
Track each alt on its own and buy every 10% it drops. Just check how deep that coin usually dips first. Something like $BNB rarely drops more than 15-20%, so you'd use smaller steps.
Honestly though, I get great results with the simple BTC method, so that's what I stick with.
That's it. No perfect timing, no missed dips.
Next time BTC drops 5%, you'll know exactly what to do 🚀