I❤️this new chart!
Bitcoin’s entire cost basis through time:
• Satoshi-era coins still sitting at <$0.04 since 2009🟥
• Most 2010–2013 coins are basically gone🟦
• Capitulation at bear bottoms (2014,2018,2022)🟨🟥
Free live chart + data downloads👇
https://t.co/KEK5tp3wT9
No doubt there will be a new bull market with new ATHs
but IMO bitcoin will go lower🔵before next bull market🔴
* Note color scale is different in this chart: drawdown (BTC price / ATH) instead of relative strength index (RSI). Easier to calculate and easier to understand.
Bitcoin closed February at $66,985 .. below 2021 ATH
Approaching 200 week moving average ($58k black line) and realized price ($54k grey line). RSI<45 (blue).
Bitcoin closed January at $78,635 (-38% from ath)
200 Week Moving Average $58k
Realized Price $55k, decreasing
RSI dropped below 50, blue: official bear territory
Historically BTC could drop to 200WMA/RP levels
However bull has been weak (no red) so bear might be shallow
@PeterSchiff Gold and bitcoin both did ~2x last 2 years. So both gold and bitcoin investors were smart. I guess the smartest investors invested in both gold and bitcoin. Yearly or quarterly rebalancing a 50%/50% gold/bitcoin portfolio probably had even better risk/return.
Why is bitcoin not pumping?
Because 50% is selling (OGs traumatized by 2021, technical investors looking at RSI, 4y cycle fans expecting a bear 2y post halving) while the other 50% is buying (fundamental investors, tradfi, banks).
Epic battle ... until sellers are out of ammo.
Only Bitcoin macro chart you need to see right now
Bitcoin post halving cycles are very different from each other
After each halving the upward rally is getting squeezed and the time between 'Halving' and the 'Top' is getting longer and longer
You'll never make it in this market if you think this is anything like 2017 or 2021
It's a completely new market each cycle. It is expanding and maturing very fast:
2 out of 3 people think 2026 will be a bear market where bitcoin crashes. But what if bitcoin continues its yearly doubling, from $20k to $40k in 2023, to ~$80k in 2024, possibly $160k end of 2025, $320k 2026, $640k 2027. Wouldn't surprise me..
🚨I sold 33% of my $ETH bag today
Most will call me an idiot for what I’m about to do...
But I've seen this setup back in 2017 and 2021
Here's why I will SELL everything by the end of October