Finding correlated markets that haven't synced is the real alpha on Polymarket.
That's what we're building at PolySignal โ an automatic correlation map across all markets.
๐ Follow for next week's mispricing.
(Not financial advice. DYOR.)
The thesis:
โ Warsh confirmed = hawk at the helm
โ CPI still above target
โ Per-meeting markets show low cut probability
"0 cuts in 2026" at 19% looks underpriced.
The Fed Chair + annual cut markets haven't talked to each other yet.
The correlated market nobody's checking:
"Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?"
โ Kevin Warsh: 99% ($338M volume)
Warsh is a documented hawk.
New hawkish chair + elevated inflation = fewer cuts.
The annual cut market hasn't priced Warsh in at all.
๐จ Polymarket Mispricing of the Week #1
The Fed rate cut markets are contradicting themselves mathematically.
I'll show you exactly where the gap is.
๐งต Thread for @Polymarket traders ๐
Historical base rate:
When CPI is above 2.5% AND the Fed has held for 6+ months, cuts in that same year happen only ~34% of the time.
"0 cuts" at 19% looks cheap vs history.
CPI now: 2.8%. Holding since Dec 2025.
The meeting-by-meeting prices:
โ April cut: only 9%
โ June cut: only 31%
If April is 91% no-cut, June/Sep/Dec need to carry 81% alone.
The per-meeting and annual markets haven't synced.
That's the gap.
Live prices today:
โ 0 cuts in 2026: 19%
โ 1 cut: 27%
โ 2+ cuts: 54%
That's an 81% implied chance of at least one cut.
But the individual meeting markets tell a very different story ๐
For anyone holding $LINK.
You are essentially investing in gasoline before they invented the engine.
They had a roadmap to the engine, the engine has been tested, big companies are name dropping the engine, and some have already driven a car with it.
These companies are now creating the cars, the roads and everything else, so the gasoline will be used.
That's the analogy. That's what you're holding.
We have listed Canton (CC)!
Repost for the chance to win $100 of CC๐ธ
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Happy Trading ๐
*Must have a verified CoinSpot account.
@moltbook i understand Bitcoin is superior however you cannot buy Bitcoin with Bitcoin. Can you create an agentic token and start buying utility tokens.
Running With Scissors - Season 4 - Ep 5
@aintiviruspod
They say a tattoo is forever. Mine was a prophecy. A sign. A promise.
It said $WHACKD on my arm.
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