@PeterSchiff It costs miners about $41’000-$45’000 to make a bitcoin which is information disclosed by publicly traded companies. Bitcoin should not easily go much below that no matter what any TA says.
@JamesWynnReal @mxrc888 Was worried about the bear stance in your recent spaces. I was saying that BTC was historically low vs Gold and usually that’s a bullish sign to rally.
This is framed as story around tarrifs but that’s a reall myopic view. The important thing to understand about yesterday is the announcement from China about the regulation and control of rare earth minerals and the machinery needed to process and extract same. Check my tweet yesterday where I summarize.
It’s not a normal day and it’s nothing to do with an orange guy yelling Jina.
Source materials:
CSET — “Ministry of Commerce Notice 2025 No. 61: Announcement of the Decision to Implement Controls on Exports of Rare Earth-Related Items to Foreign Countries” (HTML)
https://t.co/rqA6SP7QTc
•CSET — PDF translation of Notice 61
https://t.co/kiQdGqutGN
•Global Times — announcement by MOFCOM on the export controls (Notices 61 & 62)
https://t.co/MUR8YED4ba
•Announcement No. 18 of 2025 (MOFCOM + General Administration of Customs)
https://t.co/KSuCnd74yY
•Taylor Wessing — “China’s Expanded Export Controls on Rare Earths – What European Companies Need to Know”
https://t.co/bmDbNu1qMW
•CSIS — “China’s New Rare Earth and Magnet Restrictions Threaten U.S. Defense Supply Chains”
https://t.co/KInZ0rjeho
•Fred Gao — analysis on export controls on rare earth technologies
https://t.co/xj1ZrESjtX
•Lexology — summary of China’s new export control on rare earths and technologies
https://t.co/GoER9qctY7
•Global Times — MOFCOM green channel for rare-earth licenses
https://t.co/63IHR1ItWa
Since across the entire internet and media sources, no other source for aggregated information about today’s “letter from China” exists I used AI to compile all the anecdotes into a document.
China MOFCOM Notices No. 61 and 62 (2025)
Subject: Implementation of Export Controls on Rare Earth Elements, Products, and Technologies
Issued by: Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (MOFCOM)
Effective Date: December 1, 2025
Legal Basis: Export Control Law (2020), Regulations on Dual-Use Items Export Control, Customs Law, and Foreign Trade Law
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1. Purpose and Strategic Intent
The notices aim to safeguard national security and interests, prevent resource and technology leakage, and strengthen China’s control over the global rare-earth supply chain. They establish licensing requirements for both materials and technologies related to rare earths, extending Chinese export jurisdiction to foreign-made products containing or derived from Chinese rare earths.
Strategically, this consolidates China’s leverage over key global industries—electric vehicles, semiconductors, defense systems, and advanced electronics—by controlling inputs that are difficult to substitute.
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2. Scope of Control
Materials and Products (Notice 61):
The order covers rare earth elements such as neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, holmium, erbium, thulium, europium, ytterbium, and others. It includes metals, alloys, oxides, magnet precursors, sputtering targets, and finished products like magnets and coatings.
It also applies to foreign-made goods containing 0.1% or more by value of Chinese-origin rare earths, and to goods manufactured using Chinese-origin technologies for extraction, smelting, recycling, or magnet production, regardless of where the final product is made.
Technologies (Notice 62):
This covers mining, separation, smelting, metallurgical refining, magnet manufacturing, and recycling technologies. It also includes the design, maintenance, upgrading, debugging, or assembly of equipment used in those processes.
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3. Core Requirements
All controlled items and technologies require an export license issued by MOFCOM. Exporters must provide full documentation describing end use, end user, and the supply chain path. The Bureau of Industrial Security and the Export Control Department within MOFCOM oversee review and enforcement.
Licensing applies to Chinese exporters and to foreign entities classified as “designated foreign export operators,” meaning any party engaged in export of goods or technologies under Chinese jurisdiction.
The term “境外” (“outside the border”) used in the document includes Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and all other countries.
⸻
4. In-Principle Denials
Licenses will not be granted for:
•Military users or military end uses.
•Projects related to weapons of mass destruction or delivery systems.
•Transactions that improve foreign military capabilities or threaten Chinese national security.
•Entities on China’s export-control or attention lists, and any subsidiaries they control by 50% or more.
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5. Semiconductor and Advanced Technology Clause
Export applications involving 14-nanometer or smaller logic chips, 256-layer or higher memory chips, or related manufacturing/testing equipment will be reviewed individually. MOFCOM reserves the right to deny any such exports on national security grounds.
⸻
6. Extraterritorial Reach
The rules extend China’s jurisdiction to foreign-made goods incorporating its materials or technologies. This is functionally similar to the U.S. “Foreign Direct Product Rule.”
If a product abroad contains trace amounts of Chinese rare earths, or if it was manufactured using Chinese know-how, that product may require a Chinese export license before it can be sold internationally.
This is the first time China has applied this scope of control to rare-earth products, effectively making MOFCOM a global licensing authority for rare-earth-dependent goods.
⬇️ 👇 continues…
7. Controls on Chinese Entities Abroad
Chinese individuals or companies participating in overseas mining, smelting, or magnet production projects must seek approval from MOFCOM before engaging. This prevents leakage of technical knowledge and industrial capacity through joint ventures or foreign subsidiaries.
⸻
8. Transitional and Exemption Clauses
Existing export contracts signed before December 1, 2025 may receive transition flexibility. Humanitarian, disaster relief, and public health exports are eligible for special exemptions.
MOFCOM may implement “facilitation measures” for legitimate commercial transactions that are civilian in nature and pose no national security risk.
⸻
9. Enforcement and Penalties
Violations fall under China’s Export Control Law and can result in fines, suspension of licenses, revocation of export privileges, or criminal prosecution. Customs and MOFCOM jointly handle inspections and audits.
Noncompliant entities may also be added to China’s “unreliable entities list.”
⸻
10. Appendices (from Notice 61)
Appendix I lists all controlled rare earth elements and derived products.
Appendix II defines control codes and customs classifications for export declarations.
⸻
11. Integration of Notices 61 and 62
Notice 61 governs physical materials and goods.
Notice 62 governs technology and know-how.
Together, they create a dual-track export control regime that locks both tangible and intellectual aspects of the rare-earth industry under Chinese oversight.
⸻
12. Key Expansions Compared to Earlier Policy
Earlier controls under Notice 18 (April 2025) covered only medium and heavy rare earths. Notices 61 and 62 expand the list to include additional elements (holmium, erbium, thulium, europium, ytterbium) and downstream products such as magnets and sputtering targets.
The new framework also introduces the 0.1% foreign-product threshold and extraterritorial licensing authority, marking a significant escalation.
⸻
13. Strategic Impact
China now controls not only the supply of rare-earth raw materials but also their global downstream applications.
The combination of material and technology controls ensures that foreign industries remain dependent on Chinese authorization for production and trade.
This policy also serves as a countermeasure to U.S. and allied restrictions on advanced semiconductors and AI technologies, signaling a geopolitical shift in trade weaponization.
The controls reinforce China’s policy to move up the industrial chain, retaining critical technologies while limiting exports that can support competing foreign industries.
⸻
14. Timeline
•April 4, 2025: MOFCOM Notice 18 issues initial controls on medium and heavy rare earths.
•October 9, 2025: Notices 61 and 62 released, covering materials and technologies respectively.
•December 1, 2025: Controls take legal effect.
⸻
15. Analytical Implications
The 0.1% threshold captures nearly every product using rare earths, including electric motors, lasers, chip etching tools, and defense systems.
MOFCOM’s discretion in approving or denying licenses provides China with broad geopolitical leverage.
By coupling materials and technology controls, China effectively secures control over a critical node of the global supply chain while insulating its domestic industry from foreign replication.
This move transforms rare earths from a commodity into a tool of strategic statecraft.
⸻
16. Primary References
•CSET, Georgetown University: “MOFCOM Notice 2025 No. 61 – Full Translation and Commentary.”
•CSIS: “China’s New Rare Earth and Magnet Restrictions Threaten U.S. Defense Supply Chains.”
•Lexology: “Export Controls on Rare Earth Technologies under MOFCOM Notice 62.”
•Global Times (MOFCOM official press release).
•Hong Kong Law Journal and Taylor Wessing legal summaries on enforcement and penalties.
@MAGAVoice Doesn’t “Antifa” stand for anti-fascism? Does this mean the current White House is pro-fascism and they’re using all the levels of the government to impose fascism? I think somebody must’ve misunderstood something in the constitution.
@Slippy_token Im sticking with Slippy because of what I think happens when a team keeps grinding after 100+ days and then ETH volume kicks in again….. then BOOM!!!
This is a great look into why centralized control is not what we want.
What do you do with humans when the work that has given them purpose is no longer a thing in a new world empowered by AI.
Existential questions right now are normal, where do we go from here ?