Delta Delta

🚀 Ex-Military Pilots | Traders | Investors
📈 Risk Management Strategist : From Cockpits to Global Markets

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

remember this always

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

TRADING AS A BUSINESS

People often fail to acknowledge the financial, emotional and time commitments that are required to build a successful trading/ investing career.

As we start out in this journey, our goal should be focused on adopting a business approach so that we can bring a little more formality and structure to our entire trading operation.

We should also acknowledge our current lack of skills to trade the markets effectively.

By acknowledging this, we open ourselves to accept new pertinent information to help us grow.

Lastly, when we first start we should focus on building mental skills conducive to good trading instead of thinking about the money.

When our roles and goals, as traders and business owners, are clearly defined we can focus on the pure execution of our trading model.

However, if we don’t clearly define our roles and goals, then we will have a tendency to act in a way that lacks any kind of structure.

This lack of structure is the reason why most retail traders set themselves up for failure right from the start.

#TradingJourney #TradingSuccess

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

#natgas update :

The 00z run is hotter. About three degree days added across the two weeks, with the biggest adds July 31 to August 1 and again August 6 through 10. The run now holds 14.8 to 16.5 gas weighted degree days against a 30 year normal of 12.5 to 12.9. The Southeast also shows a weak positive in the 6-10 day instead of the flat nothing it showed yesterday. And the balance actually tightened.

Monday's implied injection came in at 2.40 Bcf/d. Thursday was 6.21 and Friday 6.63. That is a weekday to weekday comparison, not a weekend distortion.

Power burn hit 49.86, up 1.74 on the day and 4.7 above Thursday. Supply fell 1.34, with dry production down about 1.0 Bcf/d, mostly Texas and the Northeast.

So why am I not turning bullish on the prompt.

Three numbers on the same sheet.

Month to date power burn is up 0.09 Bcf/d versus last year. Not 0.9. Zero point zero nine. Total domestic consumption month to date is minus 0.01 versus last year. Flat. This is a July running 21.6 percent above the 30 year normal on cooling degree days, with Lower 48 electricity output up 2.0 percent year on year. The electricity load is growing and gas is not getting the growth. Solar, wind and nuclear are. That is the summer in one line, and it is why heat keeps arriving without price following.

Dry production is 110.05 month to date, up 2.71 Bcf/d on last year. Monday's one Bcf/d drop is what you get when Texas runs 105 degrees and compressors derate. It comes back.

And the balance model's own forecast for Thursday's report is a build of 28 Bcf. The five year average for this week is 26, the smallest bar of the entire summer. Sunday I said the cleanest test available was whether a build could beat that low bar during a week when degree days ran two to four above normal every day. The model answer is yes, by two. I will take the actual print over the forecast, but that is not the direction bulls needed.

Levels and the week.

Monday settled 2.786, down 3.5 percent. 2.80 is now resistance instead of support. I want a daily close back above 2.82 before I call Monday a false break. Fail there and 2.60 to 2.70 stays the reference.

Thursday's EIA is the one that matters.
Friday is Baker Hughes, rigs have sat at 126, and a drop there is the first real sign producers are responding to a sub 3 strip.

EIA's next Short Term Energy Outlook is August 11, and it still carries Henry Hub averaging near 3.70 for 2026, which tells you how far the current price is from the official forecast.

#oott

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

#crudeoil update : If there is any thing that is most undervalued on this Earth right now, it is crude, it is crude, it is crude!

This tweet will be historic.

#ooh

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

@kabramohit21 Gas closing above 2.8 on EOD is a good sign but this is expiry week, could be tricky here, let it pass, no catalyst for bulls

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

#natgas update :

Levels and the week.

$2.80 was the floor and we are through it. Next reference is the $2.60 to $2.70 measured move I flagged two weeks ago. I want a daily close back above $2.82 before I call this a false break.

So here is what actually broke the range.

The weather run finally cut the part that matters. The 00z EPS lost about 3.5 cooling degree days, and this time the loss landed on July 29 to August 1, the peak of the forecast and the window with real skill. Yesterday's trims were out in the tail where nobody trades. Today they are in the days that feed the next two storage reports. Peak came down from about 16.45 to 16.21, and July 30 is now the softest day in the whole set at about 14.78.

The Southeast has no ridge at all. On the 6-10 day map the strongest anomaly on the continent is over Greenland. The US is close to flat and the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic show nothing above normal. That is one of the biggest summer burn regions in the country sitting at seasonal, and a hot Southwest does not replace it.

Confidence is dissolving. The day 15 ensemble has gone 88 percent in one cluster, then 62/38, and now 32/38/30 across three straight runs. Three near equal clusters and not one shows a heat dome.

It is expiry week. August NYMEX last trades Wednesday. Anyone long with no interest in taking delivery into a storage surplus is getting out, and that flow is thin and one directional.

#oott

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

#natgas update :

The coil I flagged a week ago is still a coil. Nothing has broken either way. Boring, but true, and buying a breakout that never closed is how people get hurt in expiry week.

Now the weekend data.

The European ensemble lost about 6 cooling degree days versus Friday midday. GFS and the EC AI model were flat. Headline: EC cooler.

What the headline misses is that the newest run turned back up. It cut the first three days slightly, then added roughly a quarter to half a degree day across Aug 5-8, and added one more warm day at the end. The weekend was cooler. The last run in the weekend was hotter at the back. The direction of the newest run tells you more than the weekend average.

And none of this is cold. The run holds 14.2 to 16.4 gas weighted degree days against a 30 year normal of 12.5 to 12.9. Above normal every single day for 15 days. Heat is being shaved off an already hot forecast. That is not the same as a cool pattern arriving.

Two honest problems with the heat.

Placement. In the 6-10 day the strongest height anomaly on the map sits over Greenland and Baffin Island, not the US. America is only modestly above normal, and the warmest piece is over the Great Basin and Southwest, which is not where the load is. The broad ridge over the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast only shows up in the 10-15 day.

Confidence. Last run the day 15 ensemble was 88% in one cluster. Today it is 62/38, and neither cluster shows a real heat dome. So the heat that would actually matter is parked in the window with the least skill and the least agreement.

Why price does not care. Production is 110.4 Bcf/d this month against 110.0 in June. LNG feedgas is 17.2 against June's 17.4, with Freeport still down and another trip Thursday. Storage printed +32 against a +30 five year average and sits 6.4% above that average. Demand is doing its job. Supply is doing more.

Here is the part almost nobody wrote, and it is the real story.

While August went nowhere, the November through March contracts gained double digits. NGI's own headline called it: the winter strip outshining a listless August. The money stopped trading this summer and started trading next winter.

Look at why. No LNG carrier has moved through the Strait of Hormuz since July 12. UK gas is at its highest since March and up about 60% in four weeks. European storage was 54.4% full on July 21, roughly 11 points behind last year, and Equinor has already said Europe likely misses its 80% target before winter.

Henry Hub at $2.83 while Europe sits at four month highs is not a contradiction. It is a plumbing problem. The US has the molecules and not enough working export capacity to move them today. The curve is pricing when that changes, and that is winter, not August.

Levels and calendar:

Range is $2.8 to $3. I want a close above $2.98, not a wick, before I call a breakout again. Below $2.8 and the range broke lower.

August NYMEX expires Wednesday. Expiry week is thin and jumpy and the print tells you almost nothing about trend. Your chart will gap when it rolls to September. That gap is not a move.

Thursday's EIA covers the week ending July 24. The five year average for this week is only +26 Bcf, the smallest bar of the whole summer. That is the cleanest test we get. If a build still beats a +26 bar while degree days run above normal every day, the bear case for August is settled.
#oott

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

I told you boys #natgas

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

#natgas update :- models are loosing heat. - 5 CDDs.

With Freeport gone for major Maintenance till late Aug, and weather also taking a dip, more than expected inventory buildup.

The case has shifted towards bear side, 2.75 on the wall. #bearish
Gap down on Monday

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

@eshqiyah Although trend is down, momentum is down but it's expiry week and the charts go crazy during this time. i would say avoid the noise, wait for some trigger/ catalyst etc to get in. Why trade the noise

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

#natgas update :

The coil I flagged a week ago is still a coil. Nothing has broken either way. Boring, but true, and buying a breakout that never closed is how people get hurt in expiry week.

Now the weekend data.

The European ensemble lost about 6 cooling degree days versus Friday midday. GFS and the EC AI model were flat. Headline: EC cooler.

What the headline misses is that the newest run turned back up. It cut the first three days slightly, then added roughly a quarter to half a degree day across Aug 5-8, and added one more warm day at the end. The weekend was cooler. The last run in the weekend was hotter at the back. The direction of the newest run tells you more than the weekend average.

And none of this is cold. The run holds 14.2 to 16.4 gas weighted degree days against a 30 year normal of 12.5 to 12.9. Above normal every single day for 15 days. Heat is being shaved off an already hot forecast. That is not the same as a cool pattern arriving.

Two honest problems with the heat.

Placement. In the 6-10 day the strongest height anomaly on the map sits over Greenland and Baffin Island, not the US. America is only modestly above normal, and the warmest piece is over the Great Basin and Southwest, which is not where the load is. The broad ridge over the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast only shows up in the 10-15 day.

Confidence. Last run the day 15 ensemble was 88% in one cluster. Today it is 62/38, and neither cluster shows a real heat dome. So the heat that would actually matter is parked in the window with the least skill and the least agreement.

Why price does not care. Production is 110.4 Bcf/d this month against 110.0 in June. LNG feedgas is 17.2 against June's 17.4, with Freeport still down and another trip Thursday. Storage printed +32 against a +30 five year average and sits 6.4% above that average. Demand is doing its job. Supply is doing more.

Here is the part almost nobody wrote, and it is the real story.

While August went nowhere, the November through March contracts gained double digits. NGI's own headline called it: the winter strip outshining a listless August. The money stopped trading this summer and started trading next winter.

Look at why. No LNG carrier has moved through the Strait of Hormuz since July 12. UK gas is at its highest since March and up about 60% in four weeks. European storage was 54.4% full on July 21, roughly 11 points behind last year, and Equinor has already said Europe likely misses its 80% target before winter.

Henry Hub at $2.83 while Europe sits at four month highs is not a contradiction. It is a plumbing problem. The US has the molecules and not enough working export capacity to move them today. The curve is pricing when that changes, and that is winter, not August.

Levels and calendar:

Range is $2.8 to $3. I want a close above $2.98, not a wick, before I call a breakout again. Below $2.8 and the range broke lower.

August NYMEX expires Wednesday. Expiry week is thin and jumpy and the print tells you almost nothing about trend. Your chart will gap when it rolls to September. That gap is not a move.

Thursday's EIA covers the week ending July 24. The five year average for this week is only +26 Bcf, the smallest bar of the whole summer. That is the cleanest test we get. If a build still beats a +26 bar while degree days run above normal every day, the bear case for August is settled.
#oott

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

@MariaConec I wish

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

#natgas update : Gap Down Monday!

Select the floor

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

@passionztrading thanks

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

#natgas BIG Update:

Here is what changed while the market was closed.

The forecast cooled across the board. The overnight run shed 6.6 cooling degree days versus the prior cycle - a uniform downgrade, peak dropping from over 17 to about 16.25. That is the single biggest thing that fueled the breakout, coming back out.

But read it precisely, because this is where people get chopped up. The run still sits 2 to 4 degree days above the 30yr normal every single day. This is heat coming out of an over-heated forecast, not a cool pattern moving in. And the loss is front-loaded in the 6-10 day - the extended range re-warms, and the 15-day ensemble is 88% agreed on a warm-leaning mid-August. A near-term dip inside a still-warm August.

Two more props weakened over the weekend:

1. The LNG recovery I flagged Thursday faded. Gulf Coast cash retreated late-week on softer feedgas, back to roughly 17.2 Bcf/d, below June, with Freeport still offline into late August. The one bullish supply number went the other way.

2. Bertha resolved as a non-event. It weakened to a remnant low over Texas with little LNG curtailment and only minor production shut-ins. The one wildcard that could have surprised bullish is off the table.

Meanwhile price already told you it was heavy: Friday closed down 0.9% at $2.889, sitting right on the $2.884 retest floor - and that was BEFORE the market saw this cooler run.

So here is the actual test, and it is more useful than "bearish":

A breakout has to hold its retest without the fuel that sparked it. Watch $2.884.

- Hold it Monday, even with the heat draining out, and that tells you the real driver was never the weather - it was the tight balance. Storage is still 16 Bcf BELOW last year, and last week's build undershot consensus. That is bullish resilience.
- Lose $2.884 and the breakout failed. Back into the range toward $2.82, then the $2.80 line, with the cooler trend as the catalyst that broke it.

The levels:
- $2.884 to $2.90 - hold zone. Breakout intact.
- Below $2.884 - failed. Range again.
- Reclaim $2.985 - next leg, but a harder ask now that the heat is fading.

One housekeeping note that costs people money: the August NYMEX contract expires Wednesday, July 29. This week the front month rolls to September, which is part of why August looks listless while the winter strip firms. Your chart will gap on the roll - that gap is not a move. Check which contract your platform is showing before you size anything.

The lesson this whole week has taught: the market trades the change, not the level. When heat was being added, gas could not rally because supply capped it. Now heat is being subtracted, and the breakout is fragile. But a downgrade from a hot base is not the same as cold. The balance still decides this. $2.884 is the line.

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

@sstormFX Thanks

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

#natgas update :

I said this was a coil: $2.95 confirms up, $2.80 kills it. Thursday it confirmed. The floor was never even touched.

EIA printed +32 Bcf for the week ended July 17. Consensus was +39. Gas jumped 2.57% to $2.94 and cleared the range ceiling near $2.985. Today it is pulling back to ~$2.89 to retest the breakout. The low of the whole stretch was $2.82 - the $2.8 line held with room to spare.

Now the part worth your time, because I got a piece of this wrong.

On Wednesday I said a build below 30 - the five-year average - would be the bullish trigger. The print was 32. Above 30. And it rallied anyway.

Why: the market traded the miss versus the +39 consensus, not the beat versus the five-year norm. Same-day price reaction prices the SURPRISE. The five-year average tells you the trend. Two different benchmarks, two different jobs. I collapsed them into one and the market corrected me.

What the print actually says:

1. Bullish tactically. 7 Bcf under consensus during peak heat. Somebody's supply-demand model was too loose.

2. Not a structural turn. The five-year surplus is 183 Bcf. Three weeks ago it was 185. Then 181. Now 183. It is not eroding - it is parked. The bull case needs that number to fall, and it has not.

3. Still the line nobody quotes: US storage is 16 Bcf BELOW last year. Every headline says "6% above the five-year average." Both are true. The five-year average is built from mild years. Against the actual 2025 curve, we are short.

The demand peak has already passed. Power burn hit 50.7 Bcf/d on July 21 and was down to 45.5 by the 23rd. The daily balance tightened to 1.6 Bcf/d mid-week - the tightest of July - then loosened back above 4.

And the forecast is sharpening, not extending. The latest run puts the peak near 17.3 gas-weighted degree days on July 31, nearly 5 above normal - the hottest of the month, and Commodity Weather Group has Central US heat July 27-31 confirming the window. But the run also trimmed July 24-25 AND August 3-6. Higher spike, shorter window. That is why price broke out and then stalled: a curve pays for duration, not a single hot day.

Supply is not helping either. Output at 110.9 Bcf/d, up 2.5% y/y. Rigs flat at 126, so no fresh surge - but no decline either. LNG feedgas actually recovered to 17.9 Bcf/d, up 7.9% on the week, even with Freeport offline into late August. That is the one quietly bullish supply-side number in the set.

The levels now:
- $2.88-2.92 is the retest zone. Hold it and the breakout stands.
- Clean break back below $2.88 and the breakout failed - back into the range.
- Above $2.985 opens the next leg.

I said sell rallies until a print undershoots. A print undershot. The trade changed - not to "buy heat," but to "the floor is real until proven otherwise."

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

@passionztrading Thanks

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

+32 bcf, less than expected

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

#natgas update : Nothing major. Sell on rise market, no catalyst for Bulls, Eia expected to announce +39bcf injection, Sell on rise market.

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

#natgas update : Nothing major. Sell on rise market, no catalyst for Bulls, Eia expected to announce +39bcf injection, Sell on rise market.

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

#natgas update :

Yesterday I drew the line at $2.8 and said the coil breaks there. The line has held - and tomorrow decides it.

Here is where we stand.

The weather got even hotter. The 00z run pushed the end-of-July peak to near 17 gas-weighted degree days - roughly 4.5 above the 30yr normal, and above normal every single day for two straight weeks. That is hotter than yesterday's run, which was already the strongest of the month. The 15-day ensemble split back to a near-even 48/52, but both scenarios keep the Lower 48 warm - a disagreement on the details, not the direction.

And gas still can't move. Tuesday settled flat, a fraction above last Thursday's low. Wednesday opened near $2.84 on a Strong Sell signal. The hottest forecast of the summer, and the market is glued to a two-month low.

That is the whole lesson, again: the tell is the reaction to the map, not the map. When price refuses to rally on its best input, the input is priced.

Why it stays capped:
1. Production near 110 Bcf/d, close to records.
2. Record solar and wind eating gas's power-burn share - the structural 2026 story.
3. Freeport LNG offline into late August, trapping ~2.4 Bcf/d of export demand at home.
4. Tropical Storm Bertha still threatening Gulf Coast LNG terminals - an outage there traps even more gas domestically. Bearish, unless it turns on production instead.
5. The heat is central and western. The Northeast now runs below normal through July 30 - the biggest eastern load sits outside the ridge, and that window just got longer.

Tomorrow is the tiebreaker. The EIA storage print I flagged Monday lands Thursday. NGI expects +39 Bcf for the week ended July 17 - against 27 a year ago and a 30 five-year average. Read it exactly this way:

- A build below 30 is the first hard proof the heat is finally tightening the balance faster than production can fill it. That is short-covering fuel from a two-month low.
- A build at or above 39 means supply won again, and $2.808 likely gives way toward $2.60-2.70.

The map won't break this range. The balance sheet will.

Qatari LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz have effectively halted for three days, driving UK and European gas to four-month highs. Henry Hub sits at a two-month low, deaf to all of it, insulated by domestic oversupply and a Freeport plant keeping US gas at home.

Do not let the Hormuz headlines pull you long a contract walled off from them.

Same line, same targets, same thesis as yesterday. Tomorrow tells us which way it breaks.

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

#natgas update :

Yesterday I called this a coil and drew the line at $2.80. We are now pressing it - and the way we got here is the lesson.

Over the weekend the ECMWF ensemble handed the bulls its strongest hand of the month. Gas-weighted degree days sit above the 30yr normal every single day for the next two weeks - as much as 4 above at the hottest. The back half was revised hotter by more than a full degree day versus the prior run, and the 15-day ensemble consolidated into one dominant scenario at 76%, the highest agreement in a week. The hottest stretch lands in the final days of July.

The market's answer: down 2% Monday to a fresh two-month closing low near $2.85, now sitting right on the $2.8 swing low.

Handed its best card, gas made a new low. That means the bull case is already in the price. Here is what beat the heat:

1. Production near 110-112 Bcf/d, close to records, up ~3% year on year. Supply is filling the demand.

2. Renewables. Solar and wind at near-record July output are eating gas's share of power burn. This is the structural story of 2026, and almost nobody trading MCX is pricing it.

3. Builds are still above normal. NGI expects a +39 Bcf injection for the week ended July 17 - above the 27 a year ago and the 30 five-year average. Even in a heat wave, storage is filling faster than normal. The surplus is not eroding.

4. Freeport LNG stays offline into late August, trapping ~2.4 Bcf/d of export demand at home.

5. New overnight: Tropical Storm Bertha formed off Florida, tracking the northern Gulf Coast toward New Orleans by Wednesday. It is weak and rain-driven, but the market read it as temporary LNG shipping delays - more gas stuck at home. Bearish, unless it strengthens enough to shut in production, which it currently is not.

And the catch inside the heat: it is a central and western US story. The Northeast runs below normal through July 24, so the biggest eastern load centers sit outside the ridge.

The lesson is the one this market has taught all week: the tell is never the forecast map, it is the reaction to the map. Strongest run of the month, new low - the heat is fully priced, and supply owns this tape.

$2.808 is the line. A close below it opens the measured move toward $2.60-2.70. Rallies on hot forecasts stay sells until a storage print finally comes in below the five-year average - the only proof the balance is tightening faster than production can fill it. Respect the downtrend, but respect the floor too: a market this beaten down with a pattern this hot can snap back hard on the right catalyst.

Do not let the global headlines pull you long a US contract insulated from them.

#oott

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

@BullyBear81 Can’t say anything right now, too far to predict

[Delta Delta @Vta_Veterans]

#natgas update :

For a full week, natural gas has refused to break $2.80. That refusal is the story — not the two-month low everyone is quoting.

Look at what it held against. A +41 Bcf build that beat consensus. Record solar and wind eating gas's share of power burn. Freeport offline into late August, trapping ~2 Bcf/d of export demand at home. Production near 110. Every bearish card on the table — and the floor held.

Then the weekend models flipped hot.

The bear case is loud and mostly priced:
- +41 build printed above the +39 estimate. Traders shrugged.
- Solar and wind hit near-record July output. This is why ~50 Bcf/d of power burn isn't lifting price — renewables are capping gas's summer peak. Most people miss this entirely.
- Freeport maintenance runs to late August. Known. On the tape already.

The bull case is quiet and building:
- The weekend EPS holds cooling demand solidly above the 30yr normal all the way into August — peak near 16 gas-weighted degree days vs 12.6 normal. No cool fade this cycle.
- The daily balance already tightened hard. Implied balancing collapsed from 9.4 Bcf/d on July 12 to ~2.1 by July 15. At peak heat there was almost no spare gas to inject. Builds are small in absolute terms even when they beat a low bar.
- Storage sits at or below last year. The surplus everyone quotes is against a five-year average built out of mild years, and it is narrowing week over week.
- Friday firmed 1.85% on the hot forecast, and the prompt now trades over cash. The front of the curve is pricing the heat before spot does.

The honest read: this is a coil, not a reversal. The bear fuel is known. The bull fuel needs a trigger — Freeport coming back late August, or the surplus actually drawing down. Until $2.95 breaks, it's a $2.80-2.95 range. A break of $2.80 says I'm wrong and the selloff resumes toward $2.60-2.70.

But when a market stops making new lows on bad news while the forward demand curve turns up, the risk-reward is quietly flipping. Loud and priced is not the same as bullish.

$2.80 is the line. Everything is measured from there.

#oott