Vulkan

not financial advice. crypto research. focused on aggressive portfolio growth with Bitcoin as the centerpiece. investor, never trader.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

As it stands (Bitcoin right at $94k) my guesstimates for this halving cycle are:

Top @ roughly $300k // Bottom @ $55k-$60K

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

Surely there has to be some unannounced driver behind the price action.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

Past 5 day of price action have been surreal honestly. Such a nice change of pace compared to the past 9months. Cool off will happen eventually but unbelievably happy to have started entry sub $60k and hit most of my targets in the (presumed) lower quartile of drawdown.

$BTC $ETH $COIN $ASST $CRCL

[Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 @DrProfitCrypto]

Bitcoin is now closer to 100k than to 60k

Best regards

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

@ColeMacro Phenomenal BTC proxy vehicle

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

$ASST Beta Coefficient relative to $BTC per my Amplify Model: 1yr, 6months, 1month

**note: my standard windows of observation are usually 2yr and 6months but since Strive only recently turned into a BTC treasury company in September '25 the 2yr window is irrelevant.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

@ZynxBTC Conservative guesstimate is 5x from current levels by time BTC peaks imo

https://t.co/9D945VNdvU

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

$ASST Beta Coefficient relative to $BTC per my Amplify Model: 1yr, 6months, 1month

**note: my standard windows of observation are usually 2yr and 6months but since Strive only recently turned into a BTC treasury company in September '25 the 2yr window is irrelevant.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

@akaAlistair Too volatile for my own portfolio allocation. Conservatively compounding gains depending on BTC Regime is my primary focus, crypto assets are already volatile enough.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

Certainly seems like the plays with the highest potential R/R within the crypto realm of things are $ETH and $HYPE for varying reasons. Aside from that it has been my long standing belief that the 'alt-season' that so many people have been looking for the past 4 years will be in TradFi vehicles that are $BTC adjacent - as this will be TradFi's first full bull cycle and I do believe they entered the space in traditionally bearish conditions in order to capitalize on an apathetic bottom and maximize returns in a euphoric bull cycle.

Was taking serious notes on my watchlist performance during the massive jump by BTC in the latter end of last week and $ASST stuck out the most. Outperforming both $COIN and $CRCL (both of which I am insanely bullish on here as I think they present the best R/R at a conservative rate, at least conservative compared to the ever-present volatility in the digital asset space).

If BTC goes 3x to around ~180k peak in the upcoming bull, I would not be shocked to see $ASST move anywhere between 5x-7x from current levels in the $15-$17 range.

But ultimately who knows. Nothing I post is ever financial advice and merely speculation while I vocally post my thoughts in the space relative to my own portfolio.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

ETH/BTC v. HYPE/BTC v. TOTAL3/BTC since June 2025.

Although I think that the shift of the past week specifically within the lens of BTC having a serious breakout is more of note than the historical change of the past year.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

Will be very interesting to see what Bitcoin price does next week as far as sustaining current PA or a continuation of last week. Personally, at this point I believe it’s just about accumulating with a 6-8month forward thinking positioning — not to add onto the all the hype posting but it certainly feels as if the time has turned.

Accumulating into bull thesis list consistently into EoY no matter what happens.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

In my humble opinion and relating to my own allocation, I am buying here with the idea that even with a 20% retrace from current level we go much higher over the next 12-16months. The tide has certainly turned it seems.

[Matt Hougan @Matt_Hougan]

A lot of people buying this rally are making a four-year investment, not a four-hour bet. While I'm sure we retrench at some point, I think we've entered a new phase.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

Have seen little to no movement from $SNLH despite everything else popping across the board. Sure it will have it's day but removing it from my list for more certain plays that are already moving with a higher beta relative to Bitcoin.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

Brief $SLNH Thesis:

Base idea for this opportunity is that the current broader economic ecosystem is supported by a massive AI boom and one of the primary bottlenecks within that boom is readily available compute power that can support the innovation and growth within the AI sector; tech that has historically been used to mine BTC can be converted into AI infrastructure easily and is readily available through Bitcoin mining companies. $SLNH has it's foot in both doors and despite my primary focus being on Bitcoin and it's surrounding markets, the increasing AI reliance by the modern economy makes it a prominent backdrop on any sector so opportunities that provide a cross over will of course peak my interest.

Based on the R-squared output from my model (seen below), the price based relationship between $BTC and $SLNH is far from significant which is why this is mostly a qualitative thesis and gets a much lower allocation of bankroll than something like $COIN that checks all the boxes. Regardless, I think there is serious seasonal opportunity here in an upcoming bull run, especially if AI companies start to sign compute power deals with BTC mining companies as we recently saw between Anthropic and Riot.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

One of the highest proxy returns in TradFi markets during jump yesterday on my watchlist.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

$ASST Beta Coefficient relative to $BTC per my Amplify Model: 1yr, 6months, 1month

**note: my standard windows of observation are usually 2yr and 6months but since Strive only recently turned into a BTC treasury company in September '25 the 2yr window is irrelevant.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

$BTC still within the bottom quartile of an assumed bottom at $57,000 from peak at $126,000:

126k - 57k = 69k
69k / 4 = 17,250

Assumed Lower Quartile = $57,000 - $74,250

Ideal accumulation zone from my perspective. Adding heavier here through that lens as we are at the upper bounds of that. Still have small short position open as hedge (roughly 15% of total port) and think there is still chance for one last flush out before year's end.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

@JesseOlson Local top here before the true macro bottom would be arguably hilarious.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

Quick adjustment after a nice little pump today across the board:

70% of short position closed via trailing % SL.

Glad to have stacked to bull-run focused plays beforehand to play both sides of the coin. Keeping about 50% of cash from closed short position on hand as I truly think there is still likelihood the bottom is not in - yet I am almost certain we have bounced hard at within the lower quartile of the bear market atp so moved the other half into targeted plays.

Adequate hedge thus far. Keeping the remaining 30% short position open until 80k or 50k.

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

Overview on my current portfolio allocation as I do not believe we have quite yet hit the macro bottom for Bitcoin within this bear cycle yet I started to turn bullish on Bitcoin first around 2 months ago. https://t.co/ChBiA4heQu

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

@KAIZ3NS Likewise. Although I did start adding back to spot for the first time in a few years when we tapped 59k-60k initially.

[CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance]

We are so back! 👏

[Vulkan @VulkanResearch]

Well today was certainly entertaining. Very happy to have started to allocate into bullrun focused plays as of late.

Ultimately do think it would be quite interesting if we had yet another leg lower for $BTC although proxies performed phenomenally. If anything, I took note on what outperformed avg. beta over past ~2yrs today and what kept in line.

$COIN $HYPE $ASST $CRCL