WBD27

[WBD27 @WBD27]

@LukeGromen @tdrud @dotkrueger Luke - you have noted that the interventions have come more quickly each time the MOVE index spikes. Will it be like 08 where they start interventions with baby steps and eventually have to escalate to get them to work?

[WBD27 @WBD27]

@jockowillink my daughter and I were just listening to your podcast about being balanced and not all spun up in America is really hard to ruin. She suggested that you should start your own party, the disciplinarians thanks for all you do.

[WBD27 @WBD27]

@Convertbond Are we supposed to guess?

[WBD27 @WBD27]

@SantiagoAuFund Tortola?

[Mike Benz @MikeBenzCyber]

“There’s no way any Democrat will vote for any spending bill without NED funding” — okay, can Republicans never vote for any spending bill unless Democrats agree to give a trillion dollars of taxpayer money to James O’Keefe?

[WBD27 @WBD27]

@dbongino So good to have you back Dan! Excited to hear about the last 12 months.

[₿ustin™️ @justinintime00]

@joerogan please look into having @DrPippaM on your show. I just read her most recent Substack and my jaw is on the floor. I have never seen someone so eloquently and simply explain the divide in America right now.

Promise it would be a banger. Love you both 🧡

[Patrick Bet-David @patrickbetdavid]

One of the toughest things about being a Father is when you realize you’re raising the ones you can’t live without, to live without you.

[WBD27 @WBD27]

@wesbury @WSJopinion @wesbury, who would be the Messiah in your opinion?

[Chris Martenson @chrismartenson]

Sadly, true. This pick for CDC is a clear capitulation to the same dark forces Trump promised to rid us of. Where else are "compromises" being made? Listen up; this is a revolution or it's not. You can't half-ass this sort of thing, because failure = things go back to how they were.

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

When a politician who brags he owns no stocks offers stock advice/opinions, you just know this is going to be the biggest contrarian trade of the year.

[WBD27 @WBD27]

@patrickbetdavid Perplexity

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

Good morning, and God bless, #Team42!

Today’s Key Macro Question(s): Will reciprocal #tariffs clear the way for new highs in risk assets?

Likely. After our Mar-a-Lago Accord note yesterday, the U.S. Dollar Index $DXY staged a sharp intraday reversal that contributed to its largest decline in three weeks. The DXY is now down -3% from its 52-week high on January 13.

Why is the U.S. #dollar declining despite yet another executive order on tariffs?

To start, we believe the reciprocal tariffs strategy that President Trump has chosen is less likely to be viewed as an unfair trade policy by the U.S.’ trading partners. The U.S. retaining its ability to communicate, “Hey, we are not doing anything to you that you are not doing to us,” increases the odds that we see tariff rates mutually lowered in some cases. Lower tariff rates represent less upside risk for the U.S. dollar because it reduces pressure for the U.S.’ trading partners to devalue their currencies to maintain competitiveness in response to fresh tariffs.

Secondly, President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs strategy also reduces the odds of key trading partners like China and the EU pursuing a strategy of offsetting currency devaluation. Put differently, a country devaluing its currency to offset well-branded reciprocal tariffs would clearly signal its intent to maintain the old world order of unfair trading practices that benefit its industries at the expense of American workers.

In signing the executive order for reciprocal tariffs, President Trump promised many things to the American public, most notably more jobs and lower prices. We can debate whether there is enough labor supply in the U.S. to support an influx of manufacturing jobs—or whether manufacturing costs in the U.S. are low enough to be economically viable even with reciprocal tariffs in place.

We can also debate whether the advent of new trade frictions will lead to lower prices—after all, not every country will be incentivized to negotiate every pre-existing tariff to 0% to avoid reciprocal tariffs. On a net basis, U.S. tariff barriers will most assuredly rise after the April 1 deadline for the Commerce Department's study on trade and currency manipulation.

What we cannot debate is the impact President Trump’s clever reciprocal tariffs strategy is already having on asset markets. In yesterday’s Mar-a-Lago Accord note, we wrote:

“All told, there is an undeniable, broad-based down-dollar trade going on that is being funded by rotational flows from U.S. stocks and the crypto market. That is exactly what you would not expect amid President Trump’s “America first” policy platform and his promise to make the U.S.A the “crypto capital of the planet” according to his recent executive order.

Could President Trump be using his chaotic tariff threats as leverage to force key trading partners and economic rivals alike to negotiate his version of the Plaza Accord? We cannot rule out a globally coordinated decline in the U.S. dollar given President Trump’s desire to eliminate U.S. trade imbalances by reshoring manufacturing and eliminating U.S. reliance on foreign adversaries for strategically important goods.

Global equities and precious metals suggest you should add a potential Mar-a-Lago Accord to your 2025 BINGO card.”

While reciprocal tariffs reduce the probability of a too-strong U.S. dollar and an eventual Mar-a-Lago Accord, they do clear the way for the U.S. dollar to continue its nascent descent.

Have we seen peak dollar? Perhaps—especially if we are right in our anticipation of a ~$500bn reduction in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance in the coming months.

A declining dollar is an explicitly bullish dynamic for global liquidity. Our Global Liquidity Monitor is already projecting a modest increase in global liquidity over the medium term. A fresh bearish trend in the U.S. dollar would amplify that projection, turning a modest increase in global liquidity into a significant one that reduces the probability of a global refinancing air pocket this summer. We shall see…

If you found this note helpful, please like and repost. Thank you!

Consistently making money and protecting gains in financial markets require a lot of time, expertise, and computational power. Investors partner with 42 Macro because we do the heavy lifting and answer the hard questions for them. See for yourself: https://t.co/LQvjX7i7qY.

Have a great day!
-Skipper

[WBD27 @WBD27]

@DrPippaM @Halsrethink So sorry for your loss Pippa, he was a great man. I always enjoyed reading his thoughts. I especially enjoyed the couple of times he joined you for an interview. RIP Harald!

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇺🇸AG PAM BONDI: CLINTON FLEW MULTIPLE TIMES ON EPSTEIN'S JET

“We know he was on the plane—not only on the plane a couple of times, multiple times; he traveled internationally with Jeffrey Epstein.

He was on the plane called the Lolita Express because it supposedly had a bed in there where Jeffrey Epstein had young girls.

He has been a friend of his, a continuing friend of his for years and years.”

Source: Fox @Patri0tContr0l

[WBD27 @WBD27]

@MAGAVoice @SenateGOP @Kash_Patel 👍

[End Wokeness @EndWokeness]

13 years ago, Trump told us exactly how he'd use tariffs. The consistency is incredible.

[WBD27 @WBD27]

@TuckerCNews 👍

[WBD27 @WBD27]

@patrickbetdavid @valuetainment Jocko Willink

[WBD27 @WBD27]

@JackBergman_MI1

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Exactly