For the 1st time in 3 years, there is an actual chance that #ETH / #BTC has bottomed. If it has not bottomed, the actual bottom should only be marginally lower than the current bottom of 0.03465.
Evidence for a bottom:
-ETH/BTC daily close back above 50D SMA. In 2016 and 2019 once that occurred after ETH/BTC durably broke down, the low was in.
-In 2019, ETH/BTC bottomed about 5 weeks after the 1st rate cut which lines up with the current cycle.
-BTC dominance has retraced to the 0.618 Fib (60%), which marked the top for dominance last cycle.
-In 2019, ETH/BTC bottomed around the time of the 2nd rate cut, and we just had our second rate cut this cycle.
Evidence against a bottom:
-Last cycle, ETH/BTC bottomed when QT ended and QT has not yet ended this cycle.
-Normally BTC dominance goes up in Q4 of the halving year, with a brief reprieve in mid-November. So there is still a chance that ETH/BTC goes down in December, but it might just correspond to a higher low.
My thoughts:
I think there is a solid chance the bottom is in for ETH/BTC. If it is not in, it is possible it goes slightly lower, but I'm currently leaning 60/40 on the bottom being in.
The window for ETH/BTC to go lower is before EOY. If ETH/BTC does not go lower before EOY, then I absolutely think 0.03465 was the bottom for this market cycle.
One potential outcome is that the bottom is in, but it double bottoms or puts in a higher low around the time that QT ends. Hard to know for sure.
As I said in the quoted tweet below, hedging makes sense. For the last 3 years, it was easier to just stick with a BTC-only portfolio, but ETH/BTC will likely go up in 2025.
I know I have also made a case for ETH/USD to go "home" to the lower logarithmic regression trend line.
Clearly that idea could be wrong. If it happens, it happens. Remember that ETH/BTC and ETH/USD are not the same. If ETH/USD does go home, ETH/BTC could still go up.
Since I value my portfolio in Satoshis and not US dollars, I think ETH has a place in a crypto portfolio again. I converted my ETH to BTC in 2022 at 0.0749. By converting back to ETH at around 0.035, I effectively doubled my ETH by just chilling in BTC for 2.5 years.
Thanks for following along with the trade idea, and for those who stuck around. I know it may seem weird for me to own ETH after talking about it going home, but I'm not willing to risk not having ETH in hopes that the other theory comes true. Having one multi-year theory come true is enough of a win for me to start taking action.
If ETH does go home, then it just present a great opportunity, but I'm not going to lose sleep at night constantly wondering if it is going to happen.
I cannot know for sure where the bottom is for ETH/BTC but 0.03465 is good enough for me (and honestly 0.0375 was my target from back in 2022).
Thousands of Christians gathered together to celebrate Jesus.
Who else thinks we need more of this?
The mainstream media censored this! Let's make it go VIRAL!
📢 @PancakeSwap has proposed to reduce the max supply of $CAKE from 750M to 450M 🥞🔥
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I'd like to share my thoughts on the expected price of @MantaNetwork lucky box, $manta. I believe this analysis is unique.
If you appreciate my insights, please like and retweet. 🚀
#Airdrop@MantaNetwork#Crypto#NFTs
1/11
If you like my sharing, please consider to use the following permanent invitation code and join my team. We have 40+ ETH bridged and all team goals reached.
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#Airdrop@MantaNetwork#Crypto#NFTs
11/11
Conclusions:
L33t-codes below 1ETH ($2,300) is "cheap" by my analysis. So:
1. Aim for special rewards;
2. Get 1to 2 L2 NFT if possible.
3. Current L33t-codes NFT prices are a grab.
10/11