WadsUpDoc

A space to share my learning journey about finance, crypto, and NFTs. Exploring the potential of blockchain/web3 and finding my role here. Always up for chats.

[WadsUpDoc @WadsUpDoc_]

Started on @thedefiedge's Analysis Apprentice program and will share my learnings for the next 1 week.

Lesson 1 was about Narratives & Catalysts and I'm loving it already!

#blockchain #crypto

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

THESE are the most important things for 20 year olds to consider.

#raydalio #principles #advice #motivation #lifeadvice

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

The Consequences of Liberation Day

Following up on my post below from earlier this week, now that we see yesterday's tariff announcements, it appears to me that the first order consequences of them will be significantly stagflationary in the U.S. and significantly deflationary/recessionary in sanctioned countries. As for the second order consequences, we will see other countries' responses, significant policy changes in all countries to try to negate these undesired effects with policy tools at their disposal (most importantly via their monetary and fiscal policies). I also think negotiations and changes in what the U.S. policies will end up being will come as second order consequences. For example, we have seen reciprocal tariffs by China (which if enacted and followed by other countries will have huge effects), and, as I mentioned in my earlier article, I can imagine negotiations taking place over a China-U.S. deal to strengthen China’s RMB relative to the USD in exchange for some trade relief. If that were to happen, it would be more deflationary and depressing for China, which in turn would need to lead to an easier monetary and/or fiscal policy in China. You get the picture. We have in store many big surprises and changes ahead.

To reiterate what is clear in any case and should be kept in mind is that…

…1) the production, trade, and capital imbalances (most importantly the debts) must come down one way or another, because they are dangerously unsustainable for monetary, economic, and geopolitical reasons (so the current monetary, economic, and geopolitical orders must change in big ways)…

…2) they will likely come with abrupt, unconventional changes (like those I describe in my new book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle) and…

…3) the longer term monetary, political, and geopolitical effects will depend mostly on the trust in the quality of the debt and capital markets as a safe store-hold of wealth, countries' productivity levels, and the political systems that make countries attractive places to live, work, and invest.

Speaking of balance, I hope that your portfolio is balanced in the ways that I won’t digress deeply into here but have described previously in my books (i.e., across asset classes and geographies in an uncorrelated way and informed by which assets do well in different inflationary and growth environments). Expect the ride ahead to produce some very big tests and shakeouts that will be great tests of investors’ skills as the critically important monetary, domestic political, and international geopolitical orders are breaking down. Frankly, I look forward to this challenge as it is during such challenging times in the game that the opportunities make a big difference and distinguish oneself are the greatest.

The views expressed in this article are mine and not necessarily Bridgewater’s.

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

In order to understand the full picture of how the world order is changing, I would urge you to watch this five-minute clip, or the complete 40-minute animated video called "Principles for Dealing with Changing World Order." And if you want an even more complete explanation, you can check out my book of the same title.

#principles #politics #economics

[WadsUpDoc @WadsUpDoc_]

$650M!! Insane.

[Nansen 🧭 @nansen_ai]

We've identified this $650m $ETH Whale holding 173.7k ETH as DBS, the largest bank in Singapore with assets totaling S$739 billion as of 31 Dec'23

This address has made over $200m by holding ETH... 🤯

Track the address on Nansen here: 0x9e927c02c9eadae63f5efb0dd818943c7262fb8e

[WadsUpDoc @WadsUpDoc_]

Absolutely agree. Especially in a space as volatile as crypto, better to earn less than to lose more.

[Edgy - The DeFi Edge 🗡️ @thedefiedge]

I've regretted taking profits "too early" before.

But the pain of taking profits too early < the pain of roundtripping. The first rule of this game is to survive so you can keep playing.

Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

[Edgy - The DeFi Edge 🗡️ @thedefiedge]

Overstimulation's a weakness.

Crypto Twitter, TikTok, YT shorts, Telegram, and Discord has caused us to become dopamine chasing fiends.

You feel as if you have to do something every day instead of just chilling.

Try meditating, long walks, & eating w/o your phone.

[WadsUpDoc @WadsUpDoc_]

It has halved. #BitcoinHalving2024

[WadsUpDoc @WadsUpDoc_]

@alexkoh @pakpakchicken Not saying I understood it all. But I understand a little more now. Thank u!

[Mothership @MothershipSG]

S'pore police arrest 4, aged 18 to 27, for suspected involvement in concert ticket scams https://t.co/z1s8EfpcT2

[WadsUpDoc @WadsUpDoc_]

@thedefiedge @tokenterminal #6 - Tokenomics

The supply and demand of tokens, that affects its value. A project with never ending supply of tokens will only reduce its value over time.

Identify the allocation to the team and early investors, and when the tokens get unlocked.

Use @coingecko to check.

[WadsUpDoc @WadsUpDoc_]

Started on @thedefiedge's Analysis Apprentice program and will share my learnings for the next 1 week.

Lesson 1 was about Narratives & Catalysts and I'm loving it already!

#blockchain #crypto

[WadsUpDoc @WadsUpDoc_]

@thedefiedge #5 - Financials

2 key metrics:

1. Total Value Locked (TVL) - higher TVL, higher user benefits

2. Revenue - real yield that can be returned to token holders/protocol treasury/users of protocol

Use @tokenterminal to compare

[WadsUpDoc @WadsUpDoc_]

This is amazing.

[Edgy - The DeFi Edge 🗡️ @thedefiedge]

If you haven't done your 2024 annual planning yet, read this:

[WadsUpDoc @WadsUpDoc_]

@thedefiedge This is so so good, and i love that it’s not just purely crypto. Thanks for this!!

[WadsUpDoc @WadsUpDoc_]

@Firagaaa @TheBeatBots Glad to hear from you again! May you have a great 2024 ahead!

[CryptoAmsterdam @damskotrades]

'wow, if the bull run is gonna be anything like 2021, everyone will make so much money.'

No.

Here's how people will lose money in a bull market:
(and what YOU should be aware of)

1. Buying high, selling low.

The initial stage is called the disbelief stage.

The disbelief stage is the initial macro higher high after 3 years of lower highs; every rally earlier got nuked.

It's not surprising that most will fade at the start of the bull market because they don't trust the sustainability of the pump; bear-ptsd.

It feels surreal, pumping for weeks, if not months. 'We should pull back now.'

Price leaves the disbelief stage and starts to accelerate into the previous all-time high; 'I will not buy the resistance here after this rally,'

Price breaks the all-time high and rallies another 20%, normies start to talk about Crypto again, and the headlines are bullish; they fomo in.

Unsatisfied with their non-life-changing gains, they will fall for the mainstream fomo and hold all the way down.

2. Comparing yourself to others.
The early buyers and the deep pockets will flash incredible profits on Twitter. You also want this; you feel like failing if you don't hit 5 or 6-figure trades daily.

Results:
-> Not taking profits later in the cycle.
-> Over-risking: being unable to hold a position longer than a day. Many trades closed for a slight loss to see them pump afterward.
-> Getting liquidated.
-> Chasing: Your position doesn't move, but this other shit coin does. Let me jump on it as well! Stop buying local tops.

3. Trendsetter vs copycats and cash grabs.
There's this new coin creating a new narrative/trend, and it's pumping hard. Within 1-2 weeks, there are 12 new tokens doing something similar.

Quickly created to pull out money from this new trend: cash grabs.

Most copycats will die.

4. Being scared to risk early.
In Crypto, you must take risks to profit, and you will often be wrong.

The problem is that most people only want to take risks late, and their only reason for taking the risks is that the prices are going up, often... a lot already.

If you are early:
- You have less downside.
- You only have a few buyers below you willing to dump on your entry prices.
- You have a ton of upside.

Yet, people won't be that interested here because prices still need to move.

If you are late:
- You have an insane amount of downside.
- You have many buyers below you, happy to sell in profit at your entry price.
- You have limited upside.

Yet, most people emotionally fomo in here.

Learn to not just take risks because of green candles.

Take risks because of a market structure change, a massive level reclaim, money moving into a new niche, or other reasons.

My golden rule: If something sounds stupid but straightforward, and money flows in, don't hesitate and don't overthink it.

5. Don't marry your bags.
I don't care if your coin cures cancers and made you millions; at some point, it's time to say goodbye and take the profit.

Don't become a community member; the bear market won't spare your coin.

6. Having no plan.
Have a plan to enter, ride, and exit. All stages will get the best of your emotions; if you don't have a clear plan upfront, these will take the best of you.

Trust the plan made by the person without emotions (you) and not the person (you) full of emotions later in the stage.

7. Trust a CEX with your money.

8. Buying bottoms and selling tops.
Don't try to buy the absolute bottom or sell the absolute top. Scale in and out.

9. Focussing on the lower time frames.
If you try to ride the bull market:
- Don't look at the lower time frames.
- Don't worry about tomorrow's prices.
- Don't try to play every 10% up or down.

10. Impatience.
People want to become rich tomorrow. The bull will take time, test your patience, and have a lot of down periods. Don't chase the outliner if you have confidence in your positions. They will leave the train station without you.

11. Copy Trading Twitter.
Following hundreds of different anons on Twitter and trying to copy them up or down will flip-flop you around without making a dime.

12. Trying to out-trade the markets.
Last bull, you've made a lot but lost most again in the bear. You learned to play around with TA and actively trade. You can't wait to use your new skill in the bull market.

How to make less than in your first bull?
-> Marking out all the resistance levels on the lower time frames,
-> Try to play every potential pullback you see.
-> Trying to out-trade the market. The bull pumps will outperform your 10-20% trades.

13. Thinking in absolutes.
Nobody knows what will happen. Thinking in absolutes will make you stubborn and unable to adapt to a shift in trend; this could mean not being able to get in but also not being able to get out.

14. Trying to make it all back in one trade.
If you have a significant loss and are frustrated, walk away for 24 hours. Don't oversize by 10x to make it all back on a random trade 5 minutes later.

15. Over-positioning.
You don't need to hold all 6000 daily created new coins. There will be many new shiny things, but keep it manageable.

Enjoy the ride, fam!