Ryan Wagner

@WagnerRyan

Joined April 2009

984 Following

128 Followers

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Ryan Wagner @WagnerRyan

12 days ago

.@RacersHoops

bracketball

@bracketballio

about 1 month ago

deep dive 3: murray state racers bracketball projection for 2026-2027: 23-8 (15-5); 1st in the mvc; ncaat 13-seed – r64 exit last season’s results: 20-13 (12-8); t-3rd in the mvc; nit 7-seed – first round exit 2025-26 roster breakdown: javon jackson (sr; 16.5/2.3/2.9; ➡️ ?/ooe) roman domon (fr; 14.2/5.2/1.6; staying) fred king (sr; 13.1/8.4/0.8; ooe) layne taylor (so; 8/2.7/3.3; ➡️ arkansas state) jj traynor (sr; 7.4/3.5/0.7; ooe) kj tenner (so; 6/1.5/2.1; ➡️ utsa) mason miller (sr; 5.9/3.8/0.5; ooe) brayden shorter (jr; 5.8/1.8/0.5; staying) mathis courbon (fr; 4.6/2.0/1.2; staying) brock vice (so; 2/1.8/0.2; ➡️ kansas state) dylan anderson (jr; 1.5/1.7/0.4; ➡️ ?) dillon butler (r-fr; 0/0/0; ➡️ staying) lachlan crate (r-fr; 0/0/0; ➡️ staying) tristian ford (r-fr; 0/0/0; ➡️ dayton) incoming recruits: navon shabazz (3⭐️ 6’3 170 cg) mark padjen (intl 6’6 pg) jonas boulefaa (intl 6’10 pf) incoming transfers: brigham rogers (jr; 7.1/3.9/1.7; belmont) shon tupuola (jr; 6.4/5.8/0.8; valparaiso) christian jones (so; 10/3/3.1; george washington) deep dive: i’m quietly becoming a big fan of what ryan miller is building in murray, kentucky. miller came in this past year after the racers finished 7th in the mvc in three straight years to close out steve prohm’s tenure. miller took a completely depleted roster – funny enough one of the other schools that did not return a single player (that’s two straight in deep dives!) – and turned in a very under-the-radar 20-win season starring freshman, returner, and larry bird’s nephew, roman domon. let’s dive into some analytics 😈 ryan miller had the racers playing at a pretty blistering pace – fitting, right? heh. when you think pace in cbb, your mind probably goes straight to sec teams like alabama, arkansas, florida. teams like chris mack’s usf or some of the big west squads for you big-time ball watchers. well, ryan miller’s racers were a t25 pace team in the nation at 72.3 possessions per 40. for reference, I will list some of the aforementioned teams below: - cal poly 76.3 (1st) - cal state fullerton 76.3 (1st) - alabama: 74.2 (5th) - arkansas: 72.8 (16th) - murray state 72.3 (23rd) - saint louis: 72.2 (27th) - florida: 72.0 (32nd) now pace and success are not directly related but if the coach knows how to implement this kind of system while keeping guys fresh (or simply in insane shape), it can certainly be effective and incredibly hard to scheme against. looking at murray state’s torvik page, they’re pretty middle-of-the-pack on most of their metrics. they were t100 in adj off eff and eff fg% which bodes especially well for a team with a quick pace like the racers. not to mention they kept their opponents in the bottom quartile in both of these metrics (this right here points to why they reached 20 wins). opponents did hit threes at a nice rate against the racers as they sat in the bottom 60 of opponent 3p%. this is typically a pretty reliable indicator of general success – only 8 of the bottom 130 teams in d1 made the ncaat – that’s about 6% of these teams that go dancing (and this was a good year for these teams – 5 teams, <4%, in 2025, 7 teams, ~5% in 2024). that being said, murray state was able to curb the impact of this metric by chasing opponents off the line. the racers’ opponents shot threes only 27.4% of the time. this percentage was dead last – 365th – in division 1. and for reference, the top 3 schools in opponent 3par were at 64.9%, 52.6% and 51.6%. quite the difference. this metric is less an indicator of success and more an indicator of a coaching staff’s emphasis on defensive assignments. this is not just because mvc basketball is so anti threes either – it’s not. miller’s philosophy just steered opponents away from the three-point line and it proved to be instrumental to the racers’ success. If their opponents shot more threes at a similar rate, or even within a few percentage points, there are probably a few more losses in there (vs. indiana state, @ uic, vs. siu, @ gw just to name a few). so where do the racers stand at this point in the offseason and heading into next year? well, murray state retained one of the more promising mid-major freshmen in the country, in roman domon, for one. domon was the only freshman in the entire country last year to play 60% of his team’s minutes, have an ortg above 120, a ftr > 80% and shoot those fts at >75%. this may sound cherry-picked, but doing all of these things, while playing a large chunk of your team’s minutes at high shot volume all while producing efficiently is super impressive especially for a freshman. i think domon is an 18-19 and 7 guy next year for a murray state team that will be back atop the mvc. in terms of incoming players, the racers are getting some real nice pieces. navon shabazz is a 3-star guard that’s coming in out of hs – a little undersized for someone who’s not pinned as a true pg, but i still think he can be a difference-maker in spurts. probably not a starter, at least to begin the year, but he has a very mature game and is not sped up easily which will really help him in the long run. good shooter with solid athleticism as well. he is also juice wrld’s cousin for those of you interested. padjen and boulefaa out of the intl circle are two really nice pick-ups. i really think racer fans have a lot to be excited about with padjen – he is a 6’6 pg that can score and distribute at a very high level with great iq and awesome positional size. boulefaa is a 6’10 pf that will step outside the 3pt line and knock em down pretty reliably. great mover without the ball. moving onto the portal guys, bringing in tupuola from valpo fills a big rebounding and interior defense void. tupuola is a guy that will grab boards, impact shots inside and give you some offensive production – all while keeping fouls to a minimum (96th percentile in personal foul efficiency). brigham rogers is coming in from belmont and is smart, crafty and surprisingly quick with great hands. was one of belmont’s better, more efficient offensive options when he was on the floor. passes the ball real well for a bigger guy too. christian jones from gw is a guy that’ll be able to get the racers a bucket and will be out there to distribute alongside padjen. lefty that shoots pretty well from the outside. if I had to guess, he and padjen will be the backcourt starters and the frontcourt will be domon, boulefaa and tupuola. at least to start the year. there will also be plenty of opportunity for guys to shine off the bench. miller is a coach that likes to utilize depth – the racers had 9 guys that averaged >14.7 min/g last year. murray state currently has 11 guys on their roster for next year taking into account their announced returners, recruits, transfers and intl signings which means they probably have a few more roster/scholarship spots. an athletic wing and another pg are areas that i think the racers will be looking to solidify before the offseason comes to an end. listing a few options below that i think would be good fits: dario cokara (intl) - crafty swiss guard that can take ball-handling responsibilities when on the floor. good shooter that plays smart and under control. also distributes the ball nicely. he is listed at 6’2 but i don’t think more size at the pg spot is what this team needs – they will benefit from a steady hand that can anchor them for stretches and run the offense calvin sirmans iii (stetson) - i actually love this fit for murray state. sirmans is small (5’8-5’9) but has 0 fear and can get downhill. this isn’t his go-to game though, what he really likes to do is to distribute and run the offense. four games with 10+ assists. can knock down shots when needed and would be a great, experienced guy to bring in. chris fields jr. (campbell) - another good fit for the racers. fields jr. is slightly above average athletically and can do some of the dirty work inside. very tough player that loves to get on the offensive glass. t25 in the country in or amongst guys 6’8 and below playing at least 30% of their team’s minutes. not going to stretch the floor but the racers will have plenty of other shooters. larry bird's nephew + juice wrld's cousin on the same squad = 1st place in the mvc cheers.