Since 1950, pre-election years have ended with a gain of at least 10%, 13 out of 18 times, or 72% of the time.
7 out of 18 times, or 39% of the time, pre-election years have ended with a gain of at least 20%.
The average gain is +16.79%
$SPY
CFTC opens the door to U.S. crypto perps through Kalshi and Coinbase.
$CME now back at the 2024 highs.
$CBOE now sitting on the March 2026 lows.
Big levels for both.
US 30-year Treasury yields just tapped their highest levels since July 2007.
Not the best backdrop for stocks at highs, but rising rates don't always mean a correction either...
$US30Y $SPY $QQQ
20+ year Treasury back at the November 2023 closing low.
The lower-end of the range has been a solid premium selling spot.
Is this time different? Hell if I know.
$TLT
BlackBerry set to open near the February 2025 high.
The meme crowd found the AI angle.
Could squeeze if it sees strength above the 6-strike call resistance.
We'll see...
$BB