Warren P Snik

Stocks: Views are my own, no investment advice, do your own DD. Other hobbies: Philosophy, Geopolitics, Science, Current Affairs, Politics

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@ShayGal84 @THEEURASIATIMES It makes sense for the US to do this. India to check China, Pakistan (plus BD, SriLanka, etc.) to keep India in check. US is playing geopolitical chess here.

China learns about US tech, US learns more about China tech from Pakistan- this is a double edged sword.

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@aravind I‘d recommend starting with schools - teach kids to know the sources of information … always.

https://t.co/d6NW3eQX1I

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@eyeslasho Wikipedia has long since been hijacked by leftists. According to its cofounder. When my kid was in high school, the teachers wouldn’t accept Wikipedia as a valid reference - they taught my kid well.

https://t.co/0OtPX87n9e

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@md_deepesh NASA, US Physician percentage is not correct ..

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

Not correct in the percentage representation.

[Dr. Deepessh Divaakaran (Dr. DD) @md_deepesh]

Who killed the Rupee?
Not China.
Not America.
Not Indira.
Not Modi.

The people responsible have been sitting in India since 1947.
And they became richer every time the Rupee became poorer.

$1 = ₹1.
That was 1947.

Today.
$1 = ₹95.

Almost 100 times weaker.

Not because India lacked talent.
Not because Indians stopped working.
But because a small club discovered something brilliant.

A weak Rupee can be very profitable.
And they built an entire system around it.

The media rarely names them.
The textbooks never explain them.
The politicians rarely challenge them.

Because many of them eat from the same table.

Meet the invisible empire.

Old money.
Inherited money.
Protected money.

Families that mastered access.
Not innovation.

Access to licences.
Access to ministers.
Access to files that moved only when someone whispered the right number.

India became a toll booth.
A billion people became the traffic.

A foreign company wanted to sell Machines to India.
A foreign agent with deep connect contacts.
A local partner appeared.
Usually from the same circle.

The machine arrives.
The commission arrived first.
The customer paid last.

Research became optional.
Innovation became unnecessary.
Competition became inconvenient.

82% of India's listed companies report zero R&D spending.
Not low.
Not weak.
Zero.

India spends 0.65% of GDP on research.
South Korea spends 4.93%.
China spends 2.43%.

Why build something new when importing is more profitable?

Then came the second partner.

The bureaucrat.

Not elected.
Rarely removed.
Master of delay.
Keeper of the sacred file.

A file could move.
A file could disappear.
A file could sleep for years.

Together.
The connected family.
The IAS Babu.
And the untouchable file.

They shaped industrial policy for decades.

Import first.
Manufacture later.
Maybe.

Then came IT.

India's greatest success story.
Or so we were told.

We maintained software.
Others owned platforms.

We tested chips.
Others designed them.

The British exported cotton.
Made cloth elsewhere.
Sold it back to us.

The model survived.

Only the raw material changed.

This time it was talent.

India trained engineers.
India trained doctors.
Someone else collected the dividend.

36% of NASA scientists are of Indian origin.
38% of US doctors trace roots to India.

The minds left.
The system remained.
And the Rupee kept falling.

A weaker Rupee means costlier imports.
Costlier imports mean bigger deals.
Bigger deals mean bigger commissions.
And bigger commissions create very loyal friendships.

Fourteen Prime Ministers came and went.
The lobby survived.

We never fully left the colonial model.
We simply changed the colour of the uniform.

The real question is not why the Rupee falls.
The real question is who celebrates every time it does.

That answer rarely appears in the headlines.
Because people writing the headlines are sitting at the same table.

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@Pharmdca He’ll pay a fine and will be let go. They do a lot of damage (especially the small individual investors) by engaging in fraud like this - destroying people’s hard earned money.

Equitable punishment is full return of all his money and LWOP.

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@spacanpanman @Charles13245961 Struck a chord - similar background, I’m not in finance though. And I’m very happy that you wrote this rather than just brush that comment off.

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

Sivers isn't trapped in Scotland—they went fab-lite. Mass production is outsourced to global giant WIN Semi in Taiwan. The 1.6T pluggable deal w/ Jabil & POET partnership completely bypasses the CPO bottleneck. $SIVE

[Moody @MoodyWriter13]

That’s a nice overview, and clearly a lot of work went into it. It shows the many relationships Sivers has. But he draws the wrong conclusion from it. He says, “Sivers is the CPO chokepoint for Hyperscalers.” It isn’t. A chokepoint is a place everyone has to pass through and nobody can route around. Sivers is involved a little bit everywhere, but irreplaceable nowhere. Whoever talks to everyone is firmly married to no one. He even writes it himself: the big customers always buy from several suppliers at once. If you’re replaceable, you’re not a chokepoint, and you have little pricing power. As I described in my article, the real chokepoint sits one stage higher, and that’s where Sivers itself is standing in line. There is no shortage of laser designs. There is a shortage of factories to build them. And Sivers doesn’t own those factories. at that stage Sivers is just a customer. The chokepoint belongs to others: the firms with their own fabs (Coherent, Lumentum), the equipment makers behind them (Aixtron), and the substrate suppliers. The fact that Lumentum currently even has to buy lasers on the open market, because its own capacity is being prioritized toward Nvidia, could indeed help Sivers in the short term, but that’s a Phase 1 effect, not a permanent state. You could argue the opposite, that Sivers profits precisely from this. But once you ask why Lumentum has to reach into the market in the first place, the answer leads right back to the actual chokepoints, and those apply to Sivers even more than to Lumentum. Sivers’ strong position as one of currently few firms with the relevant laser IP will also weaken over time, because it’s reasonable to expect that more large competitors will close the gap. The real chokepoints further down in production prevent Sivers from exploiting this lead during this phase. And by the time those chokepoints are resolved, the competition will probably already have caught up. The company can still succeed, no question. But the claim that Sivers is a permanently indispensable chokepoint is simply wrong. Serenity probably knows this himself, and is deliberately framing it that way. Everyone who has followed him so far, and who also has a stake in Sivers succeeding, hopes that what he says is true. He’s exploiting confirmation bias. So don’t forget to question things critically. Whoever stops doing that loses the ability over time entirely, and then your wellbeing always hangs on the people you follow. Sivers is well connected, but not irreplaceable. Those are two different things, and on the market that difference is what matters in the long run.

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@ai_rohitt @grok who‘s the professor and is this video on YouTube?

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@avidseries @drterrysimpson MCAT switched to new scoring system in 2015. Here’s the aggregated data for the last decade (using Gemini & AAMC data - not published). Note: The recent breakout category of MENA distorts White percentage.

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@Figure_robot Well, someone needs to teach you guys what a mess really looks like … 😂

Jokes aside, Good to see progress.

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@JonahLupton Thanks. Any thoughts on the $MELI earnings report?

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@OMillionaires Rat virus scare .. :)

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@Maximus_Holla Have been holding my Jul 2024 position I started at $6.20. The covered calls over the last ~2 years has likely brought my position down (I lost track - it’s $0 or less). Just sold another round of $7.00 calls expiring next month on that run up just now.

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@piebyfour Agenda Driven post.

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

Disagree with this take - China a) cheap source of sanctioned oil (Ven, Iran) are gone; b) Facing a resurgent Japan; c) Facing a demographic time bomb; d) Is an export economy/not a consumption one - needs US/West badly.

China - biggest loser.

[Dr. Brahma Chellaney @Chellaney]

Advantage China? The Hidden Cost of America’s Iran War

The Iran war has significantly depleted U.S. stockpiles of key missiles, creating "a near-term risk. A war against a capable peer competitor like China will consume munitions at greater rates than in this war. Prewar inventories were already insufficient; the levels today will constrain U.S. operations should a future conflict arise." https://t.co/3kL4RckdWG

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@GitaGopinath This is masking the use of other countries by China to export to the US - example, Vietnam, Mexico etc. This Is done solely to bypass tariffs on ”Made in China”.

For example, components made in China, final product assembled in Mexico.

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@blondebroker1 April Fool’s joke, likely

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@philrosenn What about Government?

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@amitisinvesting It was sent so that whoever accepts and shows up for negotiating can be taken out … :)

[Warren P Snik @WarrenPsnik]

@Figure_robot Your marketing department needs more inspiration …. :) See what @grok came up with …