Wartosc

algorithmic trading firm within internet capital markets

fans of game theory and machine learning research

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

Schwab is entering the prediction markets game, acccording to WSJ story, working with CBOE to allow investors (er traders) to play yes or no binary bets on financial things like S&P 500 price targets. Not doing politics or sports tho.. yet.

[CoinDesk @CoinDesk]

NEW: @CharlesSchwab is entering prediction markets with yes/no S&P 500 options, partnering with @Cboe.
The brokerage joins Coinbase, Robinhood, Polymarket, and Kalshi in a fast-growing sector. (per WSJ)

[Hydromancer @hydromancerxyz]

https://t.co/csFqRel9aM

[Galaxy Research @glxyresearch]

With Coinbase announcing tokenized stocks for non-US persons, here’s our map of tokenized securities models from February.

We look forward to learning more details about the structure of Coinbase’s tokenized stocks so we can add them to this graphic.

[Perplexity @perplexity_ai]

Introducing Brain in Computer.

Brain is a continuously learning memory system. Every task on Computer plugs into a context graph built by Brain.

It makes Computer more stateful with every run.

Available as a research preview for all Perplexity Max subscribers.

[Lighter @Lighter_xyz]

https://t.co/ym9Q4IhZ7x

[Variational @variational_io]

Circle $CRCL, Coinbase $COIN, and Strategy $MSTR perps are now live with zero fees and up to 20x leverage.

100 RWA markets in 90 days
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 36%

[good @thenarrator]

been circling back to the same question: why hasn't prediction market defi materialized yet (even though we're still very early)

the answer might be simpler than most think in the sense that binary outcomes go to zero overnight. you can't build lending, yield, or risk products on top of a coin flip because almost every model breaks

scalar/distribution markets change this and it's been a recurrent topic in some of the conversations i've been having the past few days

instead of binary outcomes, you have a payoff that is continuous and positions that settle on a curve (not at $0 or $1)

this allows for partial loss, proportional payout, gradual degradation which is (in part) exactly what lending protocols and risk engines need to function

a structural change in how outcomes work that makes prediction markets compatible with defi for the first time

the first encounter i had of this was the article by Dave from paradigm. still very relevant today

[Wartosc @Wartosctrading]

must say, big fan of @variational_io

fantastic product, and a very interesting + practical architecture.

potential to redefine perpetual contracts for various TradFi sub-sectors.

[Variational @variational_io]

https://t.co/FiGmhI5YSy

[Predictefy @Predictefy]

With the World Cup kicking off, prediction market notional volume is reaching new highs, across leading venues.

Weekly Notional Volume:
1. @Kalshi - $6,380,139,415
2. @Polymarket - $2,334,645,294
3. @cryptocom - $173,976,786
4. @opinionlabsxyz - $155,983,511
5. @trylimitless - $112,767,509
6. @predictdotfun - $104,564,583
7. @HyperliquidX - $31,820,455
8. @SX_Bet - $24,149,679
9. @Forkast - $5,474,000

Kalshi leads the market by volume, while Limitless, Opinion, and Predict remain closely grouped behind.

Note: Polymarket data does not include combos/parlays or Polymarket US volume.

[Wartosc @Wartosctrading]

@variational_lvs @defillama_res @variational_io great model, fantastic product.

one of the few hyperliquid competitors that actually stands out.

keep up the great work.

[Lucas @variational_lvs]

Excellent coverage by @defillama_res about why @variational_io stands out for RWA perps:

"The key insight is that not every perp market needs to be built around a central limit order book[...]

[The CLOB] model becomes harder to scale when the goal is 'perps on everything.' [...] Each new market has to attract market makers, build depth, and create enough activity for traders to get good execution. This creates a cold-start problem.

The brokerage model approaches this differently. Instead of forcing liquidity to sit inside a public order book for every market, it connects traders to liquidity through an RFQ system."

[Wartosc @Wartosctrading]

@HyperliquidNews looks good

hyperliquid

[tut_ml @tut_ml]

Learn LLMs- https://t.co/5xKVTRx3L3

[Coinbase 🛡️ @coinbase]

The first real, 1:1 backed tokenized stocks are coming.

→ Own actual tokenized shares of U.S. companies
→ Trade, hold, and redeem - all onchain
→ Automatically receive dividends

No derivatives, no IOUs.

Welcome to the future of stocks.

[Wartosc @Wartosctrading]

smart contract exploits article by @AnthropicAI

worth the read

https://t.co/GusE7UUqZD

[Rothera @RotheraMarkets]

https://t.co/btqo1VL84g

[Nous Research @NousResearch]

In partnership with @stripe, Hermes Agent now supports a full suite of Stripe skills.

Your agent can buy things, pay per-call APIs, and provision its own SaaS, with configurable safety limits on every action.

[Nous Research @NousResearch]

No more waiting for subagents to finish to keep working with your Hermes Agent.

Asyncronous subagents are here.

[Wartosc @Wartosctrading]

⚽️