Waterport

private equity investor running a long/short PA on the side, hunting the best businesses in the world

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

@RandianCapital 🎯

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

Elite capital allocation at $TYL

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

Lynn Moore at $TYL on recent buybacks. >5.5% of shares retired ytd.

This is the kind of dynamic capital allocation you want to see.

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

@invest091 Ntm fcf to market cap, not adjusting for sbc. Something like 700M+ on 12.7B.

Expecting 1.2B+ fcf in 2030. At a 5% fcf yield that’s a three year double. More likely rerates back to 3-4% imo

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

Added $TYL today. ~10% rev growth, >5% fcf yield, >50% drawdown, buying back shares, dominant in state/local gov vertical, long contracting/RFP cycle, beat prior investor day targets, AI upside in BPO services.

Don't think these customers are vibe coding their own apps!

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

@insiderfed Fair point! Would have preferred they never got into mailchimp to begin with

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

$INTU should acquire $HUBS and flip the narrative around the mailchimp fiasco

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

10-12% rev cagr guide thru 2030 before M&A, which they will definitely keep doing
98% gross retention
Recurring rev mix increasing
Margins going higher
10% fcf yield on 2030 numbers

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

Imaging going on CNBC and arguing that sports prediction markets is not gambling lol. Total baloney

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

$CME

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

New York has filed a lawsuit against prediction-market company Kalshi, alleging it runs an illegal gambling operation https://t.co/eXs6wx50aC

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

Put on a decent size amzn position this afternoon after the azure print and all I can say is wow!

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

@ErnestWongBWM We are still at cyclically low origination volumes. Road to interest rate normaliation and volume recovery admitedly less clear at this point in the year than I expected, but I think patience will be rewarded here

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

Current portfolio. No shorts, ~150% long. Down ~1% ytd.
Playing for a monster recovery in some of the world's greatest businesses.

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

Just lost the 200 day $NVDA

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

Pulled up $NVDA p/e chart and saw these lines I drew back in April. Yikes. Are we going under 15x p/e?

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

I really did not think it would retrace to 1450 in the next 24 hrs but here we are. Gaps tend to fill! $SKHY $000660

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

@P_Remarks Looks like korean market wants to revisit 1450 first

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

Upside to 200 day moving averages following this morning's move:

$CRM 13%
$INTU 47% (wow!)
$NOW 16%

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

NTM FCF yields on app software names I own after today’s little rally:

$CRM 10.9%
$INTU 9.4%
$NOW 6.3%

We can debate quality and terminal value but these businesses are in fact growing double digits

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

Pulled up $NVDA p/e chart and saw these lines I drew back in April. Yikes. Are we going under 15x p/e?

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

@P_Remarks Looks like korean market wants to revisit 1450 first

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

NTM FCF yields on app software names I own after today’s little rally:

$CRM 10.9%
$INTU 9.4%
$NOW 6.3%

We can debate quality and terminal value but these businesses are in fact growing double digits

[Waterport @WaterportCap]

Incredible that with the estimate revisions following earnings $ASML is only trading at a low 30s p/e